Peak Oil? What Peak Oil? Now It's The Gulf Of Mexico Hitting New Records -- June 25, 2018

From oilprice.com: Gulf of Mexico production expected to hit record high.

For newbies: look at production coming out of the Gulf of Mexico, and this is near an all-time record and look how far one has to read to find out the production record --

According to Wood Mackenzie, oil and gas production in deepwater Gulf of Mexico is expected to reach an all-time record high this year at 1.935 million boepd, of which 80 percent is oil—beating the previous record from 2009 by nearly 10 percent and representing 13-percent growth year over year.

Okay, that's 1.935 million boepd -- 80% is oil.

What did North Dakota produce according to the most recent Director's Cut? April, 2018, data: 1.599 million boepd. 

For North Dakota, the oil / natural gas ratio:

• oil/total = 1,224,948 / 1,598,948 = 77%. That seems low; someone can check my figures. But if correct, that helps explain the flaring challenge.

And more from the linked article:

U.S. crude oil production in the Federal Gulf of Mexico increased slightly in 2017 to reach 1.65 million bpd, the highest annual level on record, the EIA said in April, adding that production is expected to continue growing this year and next, accounting for 16 percent of total U.S. crude oil production.

According to the EIA, a total of 10 deepwater Gulf of Mexico field starts are expected in 2018 and 2019.

So, now we're back to bpd -- 1.65 million bpd if that is not a typo. I should probably go to the EIA to fact-check the data. Maybe later.

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Connecting The Dots

I wonder if anyone caught this? Remember, it's an open book test. These data points have all been posted in the past couple of weeks:

• gasoline price set to soar despite OPEC+ deal (posted today)
• US refineries running flat out -- at 97% operating capacity -- about as high as US refining capacity ever gets; when things are really slow, US refinery operations can drop to 89% capacity
• there is clearly a glut of oil and has been for several years now

So, why will the price of gasoline soar? Let me suggest this:

• the first greenfield refinery in the US in 40 years -- and a very, very small one at that -- has finally been issued its last required permit to begin construction; the MOU to initiate the refinery construction process was signed in February, 2017 

We won't even get into all the clean air / summer formulation regulations.