Wow, Natural Gas Drawdown Exceeds Forecast Significantly; Almost Doubles Last Year's Draw Down -- February 15, 2018

Note the forecast, and prior history for this time of year, and then the actual draw down in bold red:

Natural gas: Thursday, February 15: AEI natural gas storage report:

• previous: -119 bcf
• forecast: -179 bcf (private forecast)
• actual: -194
• compare: -120 Bcf last year and -154 Bcf for the five-year average (same link)

Don did the math: at the rate of draw down the natural gas storage facility will be empty in 9.7 weeks. That is only 5.7 weeks later than Punxsutawney Phil said winter "might" be over for the year.

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Marathon Oil Beats Forecasts

Link here:

• better-than-expected quarterly profit (I thought all the naysayers said shale was not making money; Marathon must have missed the memo)
• investors response: shares up more than 2% in extended trading
• Marathon says it will raise spending slightly in 2018, while hewing closely to a strategy favoring shareholder returns

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Comment: that's an interesting comment in the Marathon note above that the company is hewing closely to a strategy favoring shareholder returns. I'm seeing this "across the board" when looking at business stories the past few weeks. Companies are under pressure from shareholders right now. My hunch is that investors -- long-term horizon -- :

• want to see more than just high share prices; they want some tangible returns; not just paper profits, which can be quite ethereal
• will move to bonds if yields continue to increase which appears likely
• know that activist investors will step in if companies don't provide shareholder value
• want to see some tangible return on the huge corporate tax cut Trump gave these companies

Higher bond yields will affect the market but my hunch is that long-term investors will do very, very well.