OPEC's Shale Problem -- Richard Zeits -- February 15, 2018

Link over at SeekingAlpha.
Summary:

• OPEC's report implies an undersupplied market in 2018
• however, the report takes an unusually pessimistic view on the trajectory of shale production
• if one were to use more optimistic projections for U.S. volumes instead, OPEC's report flags the risk of an oversupplied market

From the linked article:

• OPEC revised its US crude production forecast up by 0.15 million bbls/day, to 10. 22 million bopd in 2018
• on the other hand, the EIA says, US current crude oil production, at 10.27 million bopd is already higher than OPEC's full-year forecast average
• EIA actually estimates by end of 2018, US crude oil production would/could/should hit 11.3 million bopd

Much more at the link.

It will be fascinating to watch. 

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Notes To The Granddaughters