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Thursday, February 16, 2017

DAPL Update -- Costs For Law Enforcement; Clean-Up -- February 16, 2017

Updates

February 23, 2017: how the environmentalists treat virgin, pristine prairie.
Now the cleanup efforts begin. The camps span more than 1,000 acres, which had been, according to state officials, sensitive wildlife habitat. Now, because of an early thaw and thousands of “water protectors” it is a wet, muddy cesspool of human waste and hazardous fuels after protesters turned the native grassland into a dumping ground.  
Original Post
 
$33 million in cost to the state and local government for law enforcement.

$6 million for clean-up of protest camp.

Protest camp likely to be declared hazardous site due to human feces that will be washed into Cannonball River when it floods in a few weeks.

The cleanup of the protest camp is moving at a frustratingly slow pace

Today, from The Bismarck Tribune:
State, tribal and U.S. Army Corps officials were in a tight, tense spot Thursday morning, surrounded by Dakota Access Pipeline protesters demanding information about a pending cleanup of their camp.
The late-morning meeting was held at camp leaders’ insistence at the Cannonball River bridge near the entrance to the main Oceti Sakowin camp after two earlier attempts to meet failed.
The officials held their ground and said the camp has to be cleaned up and it has to be evacuated by Wednesday, as per the corps’ earlier order. Gov. Doug Burgum doubled down on that this week and issued an immediate evacuation notice to the camp.
Meanwhile, the North Dakota senate passes a trio of DAPL-related law enforcement laws:
  • a crime for adults to wear masks in most cases of protesting
  • increased penalties for rioting and trespassing 
From a reader:
The DAPL protests were a complete misdirected waste, and now look at the mess the "RiverKeepers" left for the authorities to clean up. A terrible waste, that accomplished nothing, except to delay and run up the costs of a project that provides numerous benefits. 

Is The Bakken A Bust? -- Oilprice.Com -- February 16, 2017

Sometime ago I posted the importance of understanding the source of a story. This oilprice.com story is a great example. Remember: oilprice started off as a "peak oil" proponent. This Arthur Berman story also appeared in Forbes a few days after this oilprice article.

I'm really too tired to go into this but I will post the link, and maybe later point out why the writer of this story is entirely wrong.

Some quick phrases and/or data points to  help me remember what went through my mind when reading this article for the first time:
  • unfettered, the Bakken will produce 2.2 million bopd
  • oilprice.com (a "peak oil" proponent) vs EIA, Harold Hamm, and many others
  • oilprice.com has an agenda; I don't think the EIA does
  • DAPL
  • Keystone XL
  • Enbridge's Sandpiper
  • 36 active rigs today vs 220 active rigs at the height of the Bakken boom
  • in the Bakken: 800 DUCs
  • in the Bakken: 1,500 wells shut in
  • Bakken 1.0
  • Bakken 2.0
  • "talking past each other"
  • misunderstanding "peak oil"
  • definition of "reserves"
  • the Permian: $40,000 to $60,000 per acre
  • ExxonMobil "doubles down" in the Permian
  • CNBC: US shale producers export record 1 million barrels of oil per day to world market as OPEC cuts back. Link here.  
  • OPEC admits it will have to extend production cuts longer than expected
  • last week: US crude oil build -- 14 million bbls (forecast: 2 million bbls)
  • this week: US crude oil build -- 9 million bbls (forecast: 2 million bbls)
  • record US crude oil stocks 
  • all of this at $50 oil; imagine $100 oil
  • the Bakken killed the Canadian Sands
  • oil rises, but swelling US output caps rally. Over at Reuters. Oilprice.com probably sees this as "fake news." -- February 20, 2017 
  • the Peak Oil theorists were wrong -- Mike Filloon, February 20, 2017 
  • Phillips 66 wants to begin 10-year dredging project near its Bayway refinery, Linden, NJ; Sierra Club says the project is needed for increased Bakken oil by barge -- March 18, 2017; doesn't sound like the Bakken is dead to me
And now we get this story, the lead story over at Yahoo!Finance right now, and ironically, from oilprice.com: did the Bakken fall too far too fast?

OPEC. Ready to cut deeper.  And the Bakken's a bust. LOL.
OPEC is finding itself backed into a corner: the group, it appears, is prepared to extend the oil production cut agreement that is set to expire at the end of June and also increase the cuts, if inventories fail to drop to a specified level, sources from the group told Reuters.
The agreement, which also involves 11 non-OPEC producers, including Russia, Mexico, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, and several smaller producers, envisaged taking off around 1.8 million barrels from the global daily supply. This means, according to the sources, that global stockpiles should shrink with 300 million barrels in the six-month period, to reach the five-year average. This, however, requires a compliance rate of 100 percent from all participants.

The Abraxas Lillibridge Wells In Pershing Oil Field

Abraxas Wells:
  • 6849, 135, Abraxas, Lillibridge 3, a Madison well, t3/79; cum 293K 6/17;
  • 23622, 1,225, Abraxas, Lillibridge 20-17-1H; t7/13; cum 382K 6/17;
  • 23623, 1,040, Abraxas,  Lillibridge 20-17-2H: t7/13; cum 210K 6/17;
  • 23624, 1,235, Lillibridge 20-17-3H t7/13; cum 260K 6/17;
  • 23625, 1,275,  Lillibridge 20-17-4H t8/13; cum 144K 6/17;
  • 25606, 1,298, Lillibridge 20-17-5H t11/13; cum 264K 6/17;
  • 25607, 1,237, Lillibridge 20-17-6H t11/13; cum 212K 6/17;
  • 25608, 1,048, Lillibridge 20-17-7H t11/13; cum 228K 6/17;
  • 25609, 1,018, Lillibridge 20-17-8H t12/13; cum 233K 6/17;

The Closer, Part II, T+27 -- February 16, 2017

The media's response to leaked top secret documents: "this always happens during transitions." So, that makes it "okay" to leak top secret documents"?

Ratings: Trump knows exactly what he is doing. When he hosted "The Apprentice" it was #1 or ranked very high in ratings. Under Arnold Schwarzenegger, "The Apprentice" is dead last. No one denies that the mainstream press has been incredibly (and inappropriately) harsh on Trump. But Trump knows it's all about ratings, and that's what his press conference was all about today. Ratings. And he also knows that the media ranks well down the list among the American public.
  • Congress is dead last: only 8% of respondents gave members of Congress a positive rating for honesty and ethical standards
  • US Senators: 12%
  •  state governors: 18%
  • journalists: 23%
Trump: today -- 55% approval rating
SNL: one already knows the skit this weekend. And all it will do is spread the Trump message. 


Nightmare: from The Los Angeles Times --
If the Justice Department determines that DACA is not legal or is no longer a responsible use of prosecutorial discretion, the Department of Homeland Security would be instructed to stop awarding and renewing work permits.
Another possible path involves the courts. A handful of governors are considering a challenge patterned on the 2014 lawsuit filed by several conservative state officials against the Obama administration’s expansion of deportation protections. If they sue, Sessions could instruct his lawyers not to defend the program in court, exposing it to indefinite suspension by a federal judge.
Deportation relief could also be ended “the same way it was begun,” said Kris Kobach, the Kansas secretary of state and the architect of multiple state and local laws aimed at immigrants in the U.S. illegally. Homeland Security Secretary John Kelly could simply instruct U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services to stop issuing work permits, much as Obama’s first secretary of Homeland Security, Janet Napolitano, created DACA with a memo in 2012.
Trump has increasingly indicated he will not end the program, both at Thursday’s news conference and in private conversations over the last three months.

The Closer, Part I, T+27 -- February 16, 2017

Tight Oil. CNBC: US shale producers export record 1 million barrels of oil per day to world market as OPEC cuts back. Link here. This is an incredibly important article. Later, I will post an article that completely misreads the "Bakken" phenomenon. This CNBC article gets it just right.

**********************************
Finally




The Dow Jones eked out another record today.

************************************
He's Back
The full press conference, an hour and seventeen minutes. It will be hard to beat this press conference:


Finally, adult leadership we can trust. From today's transcript:
THE PRESIDENT: A lot of people aren’t happy with it. In fact, I’ll be in Melbourne, Florida, five o’clock on Saturday (see The Washington Post story linked below) —
RUSH: He really launched into them.
THE PRESIDENT: — and I heard — just heard — that the crowds are massive that want to be there. I turned on the TV, opened the newspapers, and I see stories of chaos. Chaos! Yet it is the exact opposite. This administration is running like a fine-tuned machine
RUSH: (laughing)
THE PRESIDENT: — despite the fact that I can’t get my cabinet approved, and they’re outstanding people. Like Senator Dan Coats, who is there, one of the most respected men of the Senate. He can’t get approved. How do you not approve him? He’s been a colleague highly respected, brilliant guy, great guy. Everybody knows him. We’re waiting for approval. So we have a wonderful group of people that’s working very hard, that’s being very much misrepresented about, and we can’t let that happen.
What were Obama and Bush doing? This guy works 24/7. One wonders what Presidents Bush and Obama did with all their time.

Eyes wide shut. From The Washington Post: Trump family's elaborate lifestyle is a "logistical nightmare" -- at taxpayer expense. How many overseas vacations did Michelle and daughters take? How many trips out to California? How many trips out to Hawaii? Reagan's White House? How many weekends did Obama spend golfing? [One reminder: Michelle took a trip by herself -- by herself -- to Morocco where, during her vacation, gave $450 million to the country to educate women. Money is fungible. No one has any idea where that money ended up.]

White House running like a fine-tuned machine. The great thing is that when Trump leaves Washington, DC, he leaves guys like VP Mike Pence and Chief Strategist Steve Bannon in charge. Bannon is quickly and quietly becoming the most powerful person in the White House. Because of Chuck Schumer, Donald Trump has had to run the executive branch by himself for the past four weeks, and Trump has done quite well. Surprised everyone. Imagine what this guy is going to do one he has his full cabinet. His expensive trips to Florida -- at taxpayer expense -- will re-charge his batteries.

End Of Part I.

CLR Reports A High-IP, 62-Stage Frack Extended Long Lateral -- February 16, 2017

Note the number of stages and the amount of proppant:
  • 31670, 2,063, CLR, Rath Federal 5-22H, Sanish, 62 stages, 14 million lbs, t8/16; cum 120K 12/16;; TD = 25,266;
The Rath Federal wells are tracked here

Back To 40 Active Rigs -- February 16, 2017

Active rigs:


2/16/201702/16/201602/16/201502/16/201402/16/2013
Active Rigs4041136185181

No wells coming off confidential list Friday.

Two new permits:
  • Operator: MRO
  • Field: Big Bend (Mountrail) -- there is an error in the daily activity report; for #33349, the reports says that the Big Bend permit is in Stark County (in fact, it is in Mountrail County)
  • Comments:

West Capa Oil Field Production, October - December, 2016

See the top 20 oil fields in the Williston Basin at an earlier post. Note disclaimer at that link.

A reader asked about West Capa oil field:

Field
Oct 2016 Production
Oct Wells
Oct Oil / Well / Month
Percent Change  Sept-to-Oct
Nov 2016 Prod
Nov Wells
Nov Oil / Well /Month
Percent Change Oct-to-Nov
Dec 2016 Prod
Dec Wells
Dec Oil / Well / Month
Percent Change Nov-to-Dec
West Capa
72,667
38
1,912
        -2.42%
65,072
38
1,712
-10.45%
56,326
38
1,482
-13.44%


North Dakota Oil Field Production, Average Well Production -- November - December, 2016

Disclaimer: in a long spreadsheet like this, there will be typographical and factual errors. I did not double-check all entries. This is for my own use. Do not quote me on any of this. If this information is important to you, go to the source. 

November and December, 2016, production data by field.

Top 20 oil fields in the Williston Basin based on average monthly production per well in that field.

Ranked by December, 2016, average well production, 8th column (2nd to last column).

"Percent change" month-over-month has to do with monthly production for that particular oil field.


Field
Nov 2016 Prod
Nov Wells
Nov Oil / Well /Month
Percent Change Oct-to-Nov
Dec 2016 Prod
Dec Wells
Dec Oil / Well / Month
Percent Change Nov-to-Dec
Twin Valley
169,920
18
9,440
10.41%
150,060
16
9,379
-11.69%
Eagle Nest
546,334
93
5,875
-21.25%
512,904
93
5,515
-6.12%
North Fork
359,652
57
6,310
10.86%
292,098
57
5,125
-18.78%
Reunion Bay 
735,055
158
4,652
4.37%
766,122
160
4,788
4.23%
Lost Bridge
344,924
61
5,654
-8.28%
283,362
61
4,645
-17.85%
Spotted Horn
474,727
88
5,395
-7.90%
384,813
88
4,373
-18.94%
Long Creek
140,018
27
5,186
-12.23%
117,940
27
4,368
-15.77%
Elm Tree
109,878
32
3,434
-9.28%
138,705
32
4,335
26.24%
Poe
325,961
98
3,326
10.06%
406,472
102
3,985
24.70%
Blue Buttes
646,030
146
4,425
11.92%
584,941
150
3,900
-9.46%
Antelope-Sanish
723,615
171
4,232
-10.66%
668,421
175
3,820
-7.63%
Grail
713,946
178
4,011
-11.69%
665,775
178
3,740
-6.75%
Bear Den
155,524
44
3,535
-10.11%
163,488
44
3,716
5.12%
Epping
185,286
52
3,563
13.14%
200,532
54
3,714
8.23%
McGregory Buttes
336,533
95
3,542
-14.62%
348,257
95
3,666
3.48%
North Tobacco Garden
254,673
48
5,306
36.54%
170,983
48
3,562
-32.86%
East Fork
355,955
110
3,236
21.53%
372,579
116
3,212
4.67%
Tobacco Garden
209,150
55
3,803
4.62%
171,875
55
3,125
-17.82%
Alkali Creek
577,031
152
3,796
13.60%
470,015
152
3,092
-18.55%
Moccasin Creek
148,203
59
2,512
-26.24%
194,243
63
3,083
31.07%