Tectonic Shifts In Global Politics, Economics, T+220 -- August 28, 2017

Before I get started with the "global politics" post, one quick comment: at least one pundit says Hurricane Harvey has just complicated Congress' schedule in September. I disagree. The decision to raise the debt limit has just gotten easier ... even if they just kick the can down the road for another three months by a short-term raise in the debt limit.

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Tectonic Shifts In Global Politics, Economics

I was wondering how to get started on this topic, something I thought about last night. I was thinking about the imminent defeat of ISIS in Iraq.

In less than a year, there have been tectonic changes in global politics. These are some of my myths (world views). These are facts missed with factoids, many of which are no doubt incorrect.

The Mideast

• during the Obama administration, Iran's star was rising; Saudi's star was falling and falling fast
• President Trump's first overseas visit: to Saudi Arabia
• now, it is Saudi's star rising and Iran's star falling
• it seemed we heard stories day-in, day-out on the war in Syria and how the "bad guys" -- whoever they might have been -- were winning
• Russia was playing a huge role in Syria
• lately, no news, it seems is coming out of Syria
• in Iraq, during the Obama administration, ISIS was gaining
• in less than six months, it appears that ISIS in Iraq has been defeated
• Afghanistan, the forgotten war: now being run by the generals and not the politicians in the White House
• Turkey: Erdogan's star rising last year; this year, not so much
• Saudi-US relationship is stronger than ever -- Platts

Europe

• lots of Eurocentric stories during the Obama administration, particularly in the area of globalization (trade); climate change; immigration
• lately, it seems Europe not in the news so much, except, perhaps, with terrorist events

North Korea

• finally, a US administration that is telling China, North Korea, South Korea, and Japan that, at least under this administration, the US will stand up to North Korea

Of all these things, the 180-degree turn in the Mideast is breath-taking. See this Platts article linked above:

With US imports of Saudi crude falling to levels last seen three decades ago, you could be forgiven for concluding that relations between Washington and Riyadh have broken down.

That clearly isn’t the case, however, judging from the red carpet rolled out for President Donald Trump upon his arrival in the Kingdom this spring.

Oil and security remains the pillars of the Saudi-US relationship that neither side appears likely to abandon anytime soon.

When Trump visited Saudi Arabia in May—his first official trip abroad as president—an arms deal was announced worth $350 billion over 10 years.

It's a mixed story, of course, as seen in this graph: