In One Graph, Why Sanctions On Venezuela Will Have No Impact On US Oil Prices -- August 28, 2017

Updates

September 7, 2017: US crude oil inventories increased by its largest margin of the past 19 weeks. 

Original Post

This is the graph:

And this reminder: oil fields are shutting down and operators in Canada's western oil sands are selling assets and/or pulling out because of the huge glut of heavy oil right now. Any continuing increase in the loss of Mexican and Venezuela oil will be more than offset by Canadian oil.

Canadian heavy oil = Venezuela heavy oil.

Geographically, logistically, politically, Canada has the advantage over Venezuela. Venezuela will have to offer a huge discount if the country wants to compete with Canada. Again, as remarkable as the graph is, Canada can supply a lot more oil to the US if the price is right. And, don't forget: if the Keystone XL is approved ... Nebraska decides (again) in November, 2017 ...

And, of course, additional imports from Saudi Arabia can make up any perceived shortfall. And, logistically and politically, Saudi Arabia is positioned much, much better than Venezuela. Saudi Arabia was the first country President Trump visited after being elected. To the best of my knowledge, Trump has no plans to visit Venezuela.

And don't forget about Iraq.

Some links:

• Trump's sanctions on Venezuela -- today -- The Washington Post
• China warns the US: sanctions on Venezuela won't work -- today -- Russian Times
• Venezuela says sanctions will lead to end of exports to US -- today -- BBC

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Harvey Impact 

CNBC is reporting that three of Houston's largest refiners are shut down:

• Citgo (Venezuelan);
• Valero; and, 
• a third one, whose name I missed (probably Buckeye)

Not good news for Venezuela, I assume.

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WTI Plunges

Down over 3% in mid-day trading. WTI now trading below $47.

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The Apple Page

The Big Apple to issue an Apple iPhone to every NYPD officer for the first time ever, and at the same time will issue iPads for every patrol car. $160 million. Link here. Apple will replace Microsoft Window phones which explains a mystery: exactly who was buying Microsoft Window phones. Now we know. But not any more.