| Date | Oil Runs | MCF Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 2-2017 | 37060 | 78640 |
| 1-2017 | 41690 | 81580 |
| 12-2016 | 51296 | 83647 |
| 11-2016 | 44124 | 60474 |
| 10-2016 | 568 | 2252 |
| Date | Oil Runs | MCF Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 2-2017 | 24296 | 47506 |
| 1-2017 | 30470 | 58301 |
| 12-2016 | 26505 | 49846 |
| 11-2016 | 28239 | 45484 |
| 10-2016 | 790 | 3622 |
| Date | Oil Runs | MCF Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 2-2017 | 37060 | 78640 |
| 1-2017 | 41690 | 81580 |
| 12-2016 | 51296 | 83647 |
| 11-2016 | 44124 | 60474 |
| 10-2016 | 568 | 2252 |
| Date | Oil Runs | MCF Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 2-2017 | 19060 | 45280 |
| 1-2017 | 24250 | 53939 |
| 12-2016 | 21585 | 39853 |
| 11-2016 | 29957 | 32603 |
| Date | Oil Runs | MCF Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 2-2017 | 23746 | 54674 |
| 1-2017 | 40734 | 75391 |
| 12-2016 | 46954 | 79977 |
| 11-2016 | 39021 | 47861 |
| Date | Oil Runs | MCF Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2017 | 17047 | 22620 |
| 2-2017 | 17140 | 20716 |
| 1-2017 | 21650 | 23642 |
| 12-2016 | 22236 | 22864 |
| 11-2016 | 23018 | 26627 |
| Date | Oil Runs | MCF Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2017 | 15998 | 20549 |
| 2-2017 | 15481 | 20571 |
| 1-2017 | 7848 | 8507 |
| 12-2016 | 27537 | 29705 |
| 11-2016 | 16430 | 21587 |
| Date | Oil Runs | MCF Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2017 | 17310 | 30462 |
| 2-2017 | 17328 | 21776 |
| 1-2017 | 22695 | 25295 |
| 12-2016 | 22957 | 23381 |
| 11-2016 | 29140 | 35771 |
| Date | Oil Runs | MCF Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2017 | 9097 | 13098 |
| 2-2017 | 17217 | 22222 |
| 1-2017 | 18624 | 22900 |
| 12-2016 | 29197 | 30337 |
| 11-2016 | 36918 | 39130 |
| Date | Oil Runs | MCF Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 2-2017 | 1640 | 0 |
| 1-2017 | 359 | 0 |
Excellent, excellent essay. Follows exactly what I've been saying on the blog for the past few months, but taking it one more step that has only been reported/seen in the last few weeks.
1. The first story: the oil glut.This essay stresses the second story.
2. The second story: the oil glut is being moved to the right -- refined products: gasoline and distillates.
But the first story cannot be overlooked. For years, historically before 2015, the US was doing fine with 350 million bbls of crude oil in storage with 21 days of crude oil supply.
Now, we have 530 million bbls of crude oil in storage and 32 days of crude oil supply. These stories of weekly drawdowns of 3 million bbls/week are ludicrous. At 3 million bbls/week, it would take ((530 - 350)/3) = 60 weeks just to get back to where we were historically.
(By the way, the writer mentioned in passing the drawdown of the SPR - that, too, is / was a drop in the bucket -- the SPR drawdown is being done over several months -- I forget how long.)
A drawdown of 3 million bbls/week would consistently have to happen for 60 weeks -- more than a year. The price of oil, in my mind, is now disconnected from reality and has become an emotional response (in fact, nothing new). So, as the price of oil goes up even a bit, US shale production will increase -- making it less likely that drawdowns of 3 million bbls will happen week-after-week for the next 60 weeks (more than a year from now). And as the price increases based on these "emotional" stories that the drawdown continues, US shale will increase, and soon OPEC will become even more nervous about losing market share, and then OPEC cuts will end, as the new mantra becomes: "every Arab for himself."
A number of very smart folks who read the blog "religiously" disagree with me, suggesting that the decrease in conventional exploration since 2014 will catch up with us sooner than later. But I look at the huge amount of money that was spent on conventional exploration in 2009, 2012, and 2014, and suggest that this focus on conventional exploration has been over-hyped. It's been reported more than once that those projects begun in 2009, 2012, and 2014, are now just beginning to come on line. And producers will maximize production from those conventional projects now that the costs have been sunk (literally and figuratively).
For me, it's more about demand than supply right now. The US has to increase demand, but China has to really increase demand. India could be a big help but I don't think India becomes a significant player in the supply/demand story for another decade. A country like India can move only so fast. I may be wrong, but India seems focused on its internal economy; the US and China appear focused on the global economy. Maybe India is exporting more products to the world that I am aware, but I certainly haven't seen any indication. [I could be wrong, but India Pale Ale is a product made outside of India.]
So, back to the linked story. The oil glut moving to the right is a really, really bad news story for Prince Salman as he belatedly tries to turn his oil-producing economy to an oil-refining economy. Too little, too late, Not only does he not have the capital to do that, his country has neither the expertise, nor the inherent entrepreneurial genome required.
For investors, it seems like a great time to be looking at investing in refineries. In fact, XOM doubled its profits only because of midstream and downstream. It lost money on upstream. With regard to investing, I have always said I would never invest in airlines or refiners (stand-alone refiners). If I were more rational in my investing strategy I would re-consider the latter (refiners) but I will continue to reinvest my CVX and XOM dividends into those same companies. They will be nice holdings for my granddaughters.
At the same time, imports from Middle East OPEC countries show no sign of falling.
With delivery times to the Gulf coast averaging 42 days, output cuts made before mid-March ought to be reflected by now in lower arrivals. It's as if the crude that's been extracted in the U.S. is just swapping places with that being extracted in the Middle East.Now, go back and look at this post: http://themilliondollarway.blogspot.com/2017/04/saudi-cutting-production-what-bunch-of.html.
Arthur 'A.C." Benson became a housemaster at Eton, a fellow and then master of Magdalene College, Cambridge, ... edited Queen Victoria's letters ... wrote a series of reflective works on the nature of life and happiness that sold in the hundreds of thousands. He was twice incapacitated by severe depression, and only in those years broke off writing the diary he kept from the age of 35 until his death at 63. At more than four million words in 180 volumes, it is the longest known to be in existence.
In addition to operations in the Bakken, Liberty has expanded within the past two years into other basins including the Permian, Eagle Ford and Niobrara.
During that time, Liberty also acquired the North American assets of a Canadian-based pressure pumping company and unveiled a unique quiet fleet technology offering that reduces noise emissions during hydraulic fracturing operations.
Recently, Liberty created and unveiled to its Williston Basin customers a trademarked Frac Trend View that allows users to view why operators have good wells in specific areas, what the best wells in a given area have in common and other unique frack-based information for a given shale play.BDFC.
Newton and Dodge City may have challenged the Harvey system and its ability to bring gentility to a railroad community, but Kansas City, Kansas, was a made-to-order Harvey town. For many years, Kansas City was Harvey headquarters, with the offices of the Harvey brothers, and the head employment office, in the Union Station. The great Harvey dining room at the Union Station opened in 1914, and could seat an unprecedented 525 people.
"The opening was a glorious occasion." Cora Winter recalled in a 1946 interview with the Kansas City Star."So many dots to connect. So let's begin.
Just Wednesday, Platts reported that China received a record 4.83 million b/d of crude from OPEC in March. While Saudi barrels were down, they were more than made up by barrels from Angola, Kuwait and Venezuela.
No matter how you slice it, today’s crude market is set up to quickly displace lost supply. And this dynamic will most likely hold up until the Brent/Dubai EFS and the WTI/Dubai spread unwind. Cheaper Dubai will be the key to that. And that will come about when OPEC countries again compete for market share.
A recent upturn in Persian Gulf-Asia VLCC rates suggest this may be in the cards sooner than some had expected.Bottom line: the only thing that will raise crude oil prices significantly -- geopolitics -- a nice little war somewhere in the Mideast. Whether a skirmish on the Korean peninsula would raise oil prices was not discussed.
The most glaring short-coming (obviously one can say this in hindsight), KLJ did all their studies based on three price-points for oil: $70/bbl; $85/bbl; and, $100/bbl. In hindsight, they needed to take this to $50/bbl which is very possible for the next two to three years. (It is very possible but very unlikely.) $50-oil won't shut down the Bakken but it changes the economic picture and the impact on North Dakota dramatically. In fact, the impact with $50 oil might be greater than if oil goes to $150 for the next five years. The contractor was lucky to complete this study by September, 2014, before the plunge in oil prices.$50 oil -- "very possible but very unlikely" -- written just before Saudi opened the taps in 2014. Wow, was I wrong -- I did not see Saudi Arabia making a trillion-dollar mistake. But the thesis holds true: it would have been a lot more valuable to look at the impact of $50 oil vs $70 oil, let's say. Someone suggested looking only at the "high end." Hindsight is 20/20 -- no one saw $50 oil coming. I wonder if they will repeat the study looking at the impact of $30 oil and $40 oil.
No repeat of the DAPL (link at FuelFix): Trans-Pecos Pipeline ready; protest camp to close. See more of this story at this post.Through e-mail a reader and I have been discussing how the Texas Trans-Pecos Pipeline protest was different from that of the DAPL protest. One can imagine all the well-known reasons, most of which I have probably written about before. Regardless, the reader pointed these things out which is as good as anything as I've seen regarding the DAPL protest:
Another thought is that these Pecos folks weren't being paid or at least not as much. There were many versions of a rumor that [name deleted] didn't want to lose all that Bakken rail business so was paying $150 a day to protestors largely recruited on the West Coast through Craigslist/Facebook ads. That didn't seem to factor into Pecos.
Standing Rock Indian Reservation ran a propane truck to camp every day until late January - the "campers" were fed by tent kitchens that cooked on propane, and heated their yurts/yurtpees with propane. Propane refills were free until the tribe voted to disband the camps. If the Pecos campers didn't have the luxury of a casino where they could swarm the showers, recharge their cell phones, etc., living was more expensive and sparse.Then there's the fact that Texas doesn't have a reservation, having dealt with the land's previous inhabitants differently.
In the early 1850s, Thoreau would accompany William Ellery Channing on what they called "riparian excursions," paddling the Musketaquid, a vessel compromised by the memory of a dead brother , up the Concord Rier, a channel compromised by modern industry, to woodlands, compromised by unprecedented deforestation.Had it not been for the blog, I probably would have skipped over the word "riparian." I know I would not have know a) its definition; or, b) its significance.
Resource Energy Can-Am LLC continues to build up its position in the Bakken Shale with its third acquisition in Divide County, N.D., the Denver-based company said April 26.
For $34.7 million cash, Resource Energy will acquire interests in producing wells and mineral acreage from Blue Ridge Mountain Inc., formerly known as Magnum Hunter Resources. The deal includes average production of more than 1,500 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d) and 3 MMboe of reserves.
Since Resource Energy’s formation in 2015 with backing from Apollo Global Management LLC , the company has acquired Williston Basin assets from E&Ps hit by financial troubles, including chapter 11 bankruptcy. Blue Ridge Mountain itself emerged from bankruptcy protection in May 2016.
In November, Resource Energy was the successful stalking horse bidder on Samson Resources Co.’s Bakken assets in North Dakota and Montana in a $75 million deal. A year earlier, Resource Energy purchased bankrupt American Eagle Energy Corp.’s Divide County assets for an undisclosed amount.
Pro forma for its recent acquisition, the company’s footprint in the Williston will include proven reserves of about 32 MMboe and interests in 385 wells.
Obviously there is no comparison between the Permian and Divide County in the Bakken, but considering some are paying upwards of $40,000/acre in the Permian, Bakken acreage for less than $800/acre certainly seems incredible.The deal will also mark Blue Ridge Mountain’s full exit from the Bakken as the company plans to now focus on its core acreage in Appalachia, said John Reinhart, Blue Ridge Mountain’s president and CEO.
My goodness you left out Our Place Cafe Lanes and Lounge in Elgin, ND. You haven't experienced ND if you haven't bowled in a 4 lane alley.One sight to see that immediately came to my mind, especially for one driving through, is a short (30 miles or so) stretch of highway in south west North Dakota - the ENCHANTED HIGHWAY.
Medora and the small road trip through TR Park, Heritage Center in Bismarck is revamped and very nice to see.
Little request, I have a friend who travels America looking at the various hot spots in each state.The biggest problem, of course, is the sheer size of the state. If he/she is coming specifically to North Dakota for a week or two, the items on that list will be far different from a list for someone simply spending a few extra days crossing the state on a cross-country road trip.
He will be traveling through ND on his next leg.
Can you give me a top ten list of things you would recommend to see as someone is driving through.
After drilling 27 gas wells in North Louisiana in the first quarter, Range Resourcdes Corp shut in some production to avoid “frac hits,” or damage that can occur to an older shale well located next to a newer one. [See tag: fracking_halo_effect]Later, 11:33 a.m. Central Time: see first comment from a reader who really follows the Marcellus closely --
Bizarre article on so many accounts.
The productivity of Marcellus wells this past 12 months has been astonishing.
Range just completed 4 wells on a pad and could only turn 2 of them online as their output - 31 MMcfd - was so high that there was no capacity on the pipeline for the remaining 2. (31 MMcf of high Btu gas is equivalent to about 6,000 barrels of oil).
Cabot's CEO spent a lot of time on the conference call the other day discussing plans for the anticipated quarter billion dollar a year free cash flow which has already begun.
Enno Peters' great site, shaleprofile.com, enables one to observe the incredible productivity of Marcellus wells.
Two big pipelines which are being built, the Rover and Leach Xpress, will be in service in a few months.
The combined capacity of almost 5 Bcf - slightly below Haynesville's TOTAL daily output - will allow Appalachian Basin output to skyrocket by year's end.
This area has not even begun to show its potential.
Producers have to drill at a breakneck pace just to keep output stable -- a phenomenon known as the Red Queen, after the character in Lewis Carroll’s “Through the Looking-Glass” who tells Alice, “It takes all the running you can do, to keep in the same place.” While the number of gas rigs has climbed 90 percent over the past year, output of the fuel in the lower-48 states is down 1.1 percent, data from Bloomberg and Baker Hughes Inc. show.
Robert M. Pirsig, whose novel “Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance” came out in 1974, for a time declined to be more specific about his address than “somewhere in New England.” Yet he surfaced now and then long enough to lament the world’s failure to take his philosophy more seriously. His second and final novel, “Lila,” published in 1991, was an elaboration of the ideas presented more breezily in the first.
Mr. Pirsig’s philosophy, which he called the Metaphysics of Quality, offered “shortcuts to living right” and sought to topple barriers between art and science. Academic philosophers, he complained in a 2006 interview with the Times of London, reacted with “zero support and great hostility.” He added, “I think this philosophy could address a lot of the problems we have in the world today. Just so long as people know about it.”
Mr. Pirsig died April 24 at his home in South Berwick, Maine. He was 88.
BEFORE PORTLAND, ORE., established itself as a hipster utopia and beleaguered punch line—a land of vegan tattoos, fastidious food-truck chefs and all things crafty and pickled—visitors were already taken with its abundant natural attributes. The Willamette River divides the city, forest trails wind throughout it, and Mount Hood and the coast each sit just over an hour’s drive away. A cleverly planned long weekend in Portland will tap both aspects: sampling urban obsessiveness and the abundant verdure of the Pacific Northwest.It is interesting. During my week to one of the craft brewery capitals in the US, I had two beers. One of them was an Ecliptic. That craft brewery was mentioned prominently in The WSJ article. If I had to recommend one place in Portland to eat where one had 90+ craft brews to choose from it would be Old Chicago Pizza and Taproom. I assume there are two or three in the city.
| 4/28/2017 | 04/28/2016 | 04/28/2015 | 04/28/2014 | 04/28/2013 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Active Rigs | 49 | 29 | 86 | 185 | 187 |
City commissioners unanimously approved a recommendation by City Administrator David Tuan to work with Fargo-based Ulteig and AE2S, which is headquartered in Grand Forks, during the board’s regular meeting this week.
The two companies, both of which have offices in Williston, submitted a joint proposal outlining a plan to take on the role of project manager, which will include oversight and cooperation with engineers, tribal representatives, contractors and utility companies, among others, Tuan said.
A committee that included Tuan, newly-appointed airport director Anthony Dudas and other city officials received four proposals from companies around the country, including one from KLJ Engineering, which had previously been serving as project manager.
Related headlines:
More takeaway capacity for North Dakota natural gas identified.
- Aux Sable announces one of the first natural gas facilities in western North Dakota, May 3, 2013
- Enbridge's moat has widened, August, 22, 2012
- Another revenue stream for mineral owners, April 27, 2012
- Tioga to Sherwood, September 28, 2011
The Prairie Rose Pipeline, owned by Aux Sable, Calgary, with origins in Burke and Mountrail County, will feed natural gas from these two counties into the Alliance Pipeline, owned by Summit Midstream Partners; this pipeline is 2,300 miles long and runs from western Canada to the Chicago hub.
Capacity:
That's almost a 50% increase in one pipeline system.
- Current agreement: 17 million cubic feet/day
- New agreement: 25 million cubic feet/day
| 4/28/2017 | 04/28/2016 | 04/28/2015 | 04/28/2014 | 04/28/2013 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Active Rigs | 48 | 29 | 86 | 185 | 187 |
The difference this year is this: while the regional balance is more bearish than last year, there also is more pipeline capacity available—such as REX’s incremental 0.8 Bcf/d added in December 2016—to send gas away, which has helped relieve constraint-driven pricing at some hubs.
Additionally, when REX’s 0.8 Bcf/d began service, it didn’t have the effect on production that previous expansions had. Instead of garnering new production, flow data indicated that it primarily “stole” existing production from other pipes, presumably leaving capacity open elsewhere.
This may signal the beginning of the next phase of the Northeast’s transformation into a U.S. supplier of gas—the unconstrained phase. There is more takeaway capacity due later this year and more capacity to serve regional demand as well, with Williams’s Dalton Expansion online and the Cove Point LNG export facility due to begin operations later this year. That said, rig counts are on the rise again as well after bottoming out last fall. Baker Hughes rig count data show the rig count in the Marcellus is 45 rigs, up from a low of 21 in mid-August 2016, while rigs in the Utica have more than doubled from 10 a year ago to 23 now.
While we have yet to see an uptick in Northeast production this year, it seems only a matter of time before production follows.Scott Adams: how to know whether you are a real person or a simulation.
Payments from capacity auctions are sought after by owners of nuclear and natural-gas fired plants and other resources in an era of lower power prices. Bidders have to ensure they can supply energy at any time of the year or risk paying hefty penalties under a rule designed to head off a repeat of the 2014 polar vortex, when a cold snap led to fuel shortages, forcing some plants to shut.
In last year’s auction, the amount of wind resources selected rose to 969 megawatts from 857 megawatts, according to PJM. That represents just 13 percent of the total wind capacity available on the grid, and 0.6 percent of the total purchased at the auction.
While its role in the capacity market has been limited, wind has been playing a bigger one in the spot market. Its capacity on the grid jumped to 7,655 megawatts last year and has more than doubled in the past seven years, data from the Valley Forge, Pennsylvania-based grid operator show.0.6 percent the total energy purchased at the auction. Wow.
Gutierrez, 56, has a long criminal history, according to the California Department of Corrections. In 1984, he was sentenced to nine years for forcible rape, seven years for forcible oral sex and three years for possession of a controlled substance with an intent to sell, the California Department of Corrections said. He served the sentences concurrently and got out of prison about six years later, released on parole.
Between 1990 and 1997, he was reimprisoned at least five times for parole violations, according to corrections records, and in 1998, was convicted of having sex with a minor under 18. He went back to jail, but gained parole again in April of 2002. The California Department of Corrections never heard from him again.The Texas Rangers got him:
Jane Sanders, wife of Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., overstated donation amounts in a bank application for a $6.7 million loan the college used to purchase a prime 33-acre property on Lake Champlain in 2010.
She told People’s United Bank in 2010 that the college had $2.6 million in pledged donations to support the purchase of the former Roman Catholic Diocese of Burlington property.
The college, however, received only $676,000 in actual donations from 2010 through 2014, according to figures provided by Burlington College.I could care less, but look how far down in that very, very long story for Bernie Sanders name to show up. Had this been a story on Flynn's wife, let's say, completely unrelated to the POTUS, one can bet Trump's name would have been in the first paragraph.
