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Wednesday, December 7, 2016

Update On A Poorly Performing BR Midnight Run Well That Is Now Doing Well; No Explanation -- December 7, 2016

Update on a well that had a huge IP, but subsequent production was poor, and is now doing well:
  • 20323, 3,325, BR, Midnight Run 11-1MBH, Union Center, t12/11; cum 299K 10/16; poor producer after 1/15; most recent sundry form dated November, 2012 [until recently --  12/7/16]. There were two separate frack reports, but both fracks accomplished on two consecutive days in November, 2011. The first frack 11/9/11, 8 stages, 641K lbs; the second frack 11/10/11, 12 stages, 1.7 million lbs proppant; maximum recorded gas was 4,710 units with a 25' trip flare. The south leg total lateral was 100% in targeted dolostone pay; 0' above target; and 0' in the lower middle Bakken pay. Target pay was located at 11 - 26' beneath the base of the upper Bakken shale. The well went to INACTIVE status for several months in mid- and late-2015. API: 33-053-03438.
There is nothing in the file report to explain the production profile; there were no neighboring wells fraced at the time production improved.

Location:



The scout ticket and production profile: 


NDIC File No: 20323     API No: 33-053-03438-00-00     CTB No: 120323
Well Type: OG     Well Status: A     Status Date: 12/3/2011     Wellbore type: Horizontal
Location: LOT 3 1-152-96     Footages: 388 FNL 1995 FWL     Latitude: 48.022595     Longitude: -102.911148
Current Operator: BURLINGTON RESOURCES OIL & GAS COMPANY LP
Current Well Name: MIDNIGHT RUN 11-1MBH 
Total Depth: 21358     Field: UNION CENTER
Spud Date(s):  3/10/2011
Completion Data
   Pool: BAKKEN     Perfs: 10711-21358     Comp: 12/3/2011     Status: AL     Date: 8/27/2013     Spacing: 2SEC
Cumulative Production Data
   Pool: BAKKEN     Cum Oil: 299425     Cum MCF Gas: 627681     Cum Water: 44895
Production Test Data
   IP Test Date: 12/5/2011     Pool: BAKKEN     IP Oil: 3325     IP MCF: 6467     IP Water: 1791
Monthly Production Data
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN10-20163127983069495830283020
BAKKEN9-20163028682819476810381030
BAKKEN8-20163133343139708935693560
BAKKEN7-20163138743696458972397230
BAKKEN6-20161120632093286353235320
BAKKEN5-20162022612018497726172610
BAKKEN4-2016303834383682811222112220
BAKKEN3-2016314381449988712317123130
BAKKEN2-2016294754462585413541135370
BAKKEN1-2016315661623179112958129530
BAKKEN12-201531676565801183139891391174
BAKKEN11-201526528849491680897089660
BAKKEN10-20150000000
BAKKEN9-20150000000
BAKKEN8-201518548997539705401304
BAKKEN7-201524348073453450
BAKKEN6-20152350761307060
BAKKEN5-20150000000
BAKKEN4-2015304695481814974970
BAKKEN3-2015316066791819969910
BAKKEN2-201528813900163103610330
BAKKEN1-201526823670179118011760
BAKKEN12-20143114591726293216621620
BAKKEN11-201430284630622974278421757
BAKKEN10-20143030092729302450645060
BAKKEN9-20143020332115315284428440
BAKKEN8-201431163114241642004195352
BAKKEN7-201431187617882512662264319
BAKKEN6-2014301398164615319481529419
BAKKEN5-201431172415881781958192335
BAKKEN4-201430196517392441928183396
BAKKEN3-2014312677292028324982151343
BAKKEN2-20142816741602272363613562276
BAKKEN1-2014311754182323136592915739
BAKKEN12-2013312818264028066215880737
BAKKEN11-2013302416256328258794898977
BAKKEN10-20132321602373394474629041842
BAKKEN9-2013121192810211409510763019
BAKKEN8-20132045154780110814090115882502
BAKKEN7-20132470087175132116308134442863
BAKKEN6-20133081478054256922271199012371
BAKKEN5-20132998199433292019117147374380
BAKKEN4-2013246491713610721552415323202
BAKKEN3-2013319821950113752084820282562
BAKKEN2-2013281156011613156224175192054966
BAKKEN1-2013301108811285212423663178765783
BAKKEN12-20122694549227182119488137925693
BAKKEN11-201223100999894201319829147555071
BAKKEN10-2012515391511172345534550
BAKKEN9-201230917091449961769117571120
BAKKEN8-201231889791578201830018161139
BAKKEN7-2012229832964897119807172742533
BAKKEN6-201216130811297115764405743683334
BAKKEN5-20121919352191641942451694510517
BAKKEN4-2012161744517343125530082234476596
BAKKEN3-2012232358423635274840551378922602
BAKKEN2-2012292009819985191133523240089442
BAKKEN1-20123132522807700
BAKKEN12-2011263945392006500
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EOG Reports Two Huge Wells -- December 7, 2016

Active rigs:


12/7/201612/07/201512/07/201412/07/201312/07/2012
Active Rigs4064188193181

Two (2) wells coming off confidential list Thursday:
  • 32418, 681, EOG, Austin 422-2821H, Parshall, 42 stages, 16 million lbs, t6/16; cum 151K 10/16;
  • 32419, 678, EOG, Austin 423-2821H, Parshall, 32 stages, 12 million lbs; t6/16; cum 115K 10/16;
No new permits.

Three permits renewed:
EOG (3): three Liberty permits in Mountrail County.

One permit canceled: a Thunderbird Resources Blacktail Federal permit in Billings County.

No producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed.

********************************************

32418, see above, EOG, Austin 422-2821H, Parshall:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN10-20163132818328205769287391155816682
BAKKEN9-2016303622936264761627315198766957
BAKKEN8-20163138248382331147624480192544726
BAKKEN7-20163135299352452019620977869011797
BAKKEN6-20161479857874984918331244386


32419, see above, EOG, Austin 423-2821H, Parshall:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN10-201624183941842632991473159678401
BAKKEN9-2016302802728056639221332154455406
BAKKEN8-2016312994829957963819100149343666
BAKKEN7-20163132062320022128919312798210836
BAKKEN6-201613647763871045817541251318


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Make America Great Again -- T+28 -- December 7, 2016

Updates



From breaking news: 
Editor's note: CNBC notes that today's record close for the Dow and the S&P 500 continues a rally that began after Election Day [otherwise known as the Trump rally]. The Dow, CNBC says, has posted gains in 18 of the past 22 sessions and 12 record closes since the election. The S&P and the Nasdaq, meanwhile, have risen 4.8 percent and 3.9 percent since November 8, 2016, respectively.
Later, 12:42 p.m. Central Time: border security hawk retired US Marine General John F. Kelly picked to be head of Homeland Security. Another waiver required?

Later, 12:36 p.m. Central Time: government workers may get extended holiday -- President Obama likely to not sign "continuing resolution to fund the government." Will result in shutdown. That's fine. He will leave office on a high note and once government is shut down, end of routine regulations coming out of EPA.  Even those with eyes wide shut can now see the "real Obama." Nice Christmas present for government workers.

Later, 12:31 p.m. Central Time: Breaking news, transition team: Donald Trump to name Oklahoma Attorney General Pruitt as EPA head. Wow, wow, and wow. I think fracking is safe for the next four years. RINS? Erased. Level playing field for all all energy sources? You betcha.

Original Post

The Market: Market up almost 100 points. If it holds, it will be another record-setting day. I write Don:
One minute I'm biking and the next minute I'm elsewhere and in that time the market jumps from slightly negative to flat at the opening and now it's 143 186 204 points up. What gives? 
No answer yet. It's been 30 seconds. I assume Don is doing some productive. I'm not.

Then I answer my own question, this "photo-headline" tells the entire story (Don alerted me to the headline story about seven hours ago; see my note posted at 5:41 a.m. this morning):


The market. Dow 30
  • new highs: 366 -- basically the entire market is participating in this rally -- BRK-B, C, MDU, MDR, ONEOK, UNP,
  • new lows: 11 (not a good day for your stock to be hitting new lows;
GDP Now: Latest forecast for 4Q16: 2.6 percent — December 6, 2016
The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2016 is 2.6 percent on December 6, down from 2.9 percent on December 1.
The forecast for fourth-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth fell from 2.5 percent to 2.3 percent on December 2 after the employment situation release from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and the auto sales release from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.
The forecast for fourth-quarter real nonresidential equipment investment growth has fallen from 6.6 percent to 3.9 percent since December 1.
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Off The Net For Awhile; Going Biking -- December 7, 2016

The Market

I forgot when I first bought shares in Burlington Northern railroad (BSNF/BNI) but I remember distinctly the hour and the day I made the decision. That was decades ago. I was incredibly upset when Warren Buffett bought BNI. BNI paid a great dividend; BRK pays no dividend. During the Bakken boom BNSF did very, very well but during the Bakken bust and recession one wonders how it would have performed; I doubt that it would have doubled in value. BRK-B did (see graph below). I've suggested to my wife that she send Warren Buffett a Christmas card this year.


Warren (or an analyst or someone) says under Trump's tax plan, Berkshire Hathaway could add $29 billion to its book value (no links; multiple sources). All things being equal, a $29 billion boost in Berkshire Hathaway's book value "translates" to a BRK-B share value of $179.

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Job Watch

Rate of hiring declined at fastest pace since 2013 -- BLS report, today, December 7, 2016, hopefully not a day that will live in infamy.

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The Literature Page

I'm currently reading a book about computers: Rise of the Rocket Girls: The Women Who Propelled Us, from Missiles to the Moon to Mars, Nathalia Holt, c. 2016, already a bestseller. There's another book out there also but I'm blocking on the title, author -- a book my wife is reading, but not me. Now there's a third book on computers out this year. I saw it at the library yesterday and it is reviewed in today's Wall Street Journal: The Glass Universe: How the Ladies of the Harvard Observatory Took the Measure of the Stars, Dava Sobel, c. 2016. The link to the WSJ review is here.

*************

I'm always struck by something that some literary critic pointed out a long time ago: the universality of a parent (usually a father) having to divide up his/her inheritance among three children (usually sons). The most famous, no doubt, was Shakespeare's (or rather Sir Henry Neville's) play, King Lear, in which a very old man must decide to which of his three daughters he would leave his kingdom. A real life story was that of Constantine the Great.

Constantine the Great left Constantinople (half-built) and his eastern provinces to his son Constantius. The latter's two brothers inherited the western and central provinces. Constantius continued the building of Constantinople that his father had started. See this link for more.

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The Political Page

Now that the election is over, and hopefully the results will stand despite the shenanigans in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, I am watching MSNBC "Morning Joe" again. And loving it. During the show this morning it was mentioned that Donald Trump, named "Man of the Year" by Time magazine would be interviewed on NBC's "Today Show." I would never in a million years watch "The Today Show" but with Trump's interview, I made the million-year exception.

Listening to the interview (running in the background while I was doing more important things, like making waffles), I was struck by this. When a guest is interviewed on a talk show, the media sets the agenda. The media has their questions prepared in advance, and, in general, unless the interviewer is incredibly bright (rare), there is no real discussion. The interviewer is unable to ad lib questions that would be appropriate questions based on the interviewee's answers. It takes a skilled interviewee to move the interview in the direction he/she wants but is always thwarted by the next question: the next question that was prepared before the interview. The interviewer sets the agenda; the interviewer decides what is important and the viewer just goes along.

Trump has figured this out, and this is why he tweets. Every tweet has the potential to set the agenda, and every tweet has the potential to keep the mainstream media off-balance. This is why the mainstream media is so upset with his tweeting.

Several times during the interview, Matt Lauer -- in fact, not several times, but it seemed to be a major focus -- Matt Lauer asked about Trump's "addiction" to tweeting and if Trump would be able to "break that addiction." Trump said that, in fact, he is quite restrained when it comes to tweeting. Matt Lauer's incessant questioning on the tweeting issue suggests to me that mainstream media is quite afraid of where this (Presidential tweeting) will go.

Breaking news won't be breaking news on CNN or NBC if President Trump breaks the news first on Twitter. President Trump currently has 25 million followers on Twitter and that number will continue to grow once he becomes president.

Journalists will now get their news from two sources: the Drudge Report and President Trump via Twitter. And they will get their analysis of presidential news from Rush Limbaugh.
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Saudi Arabia's Break-Even Price $92; Will Drop To $80 In 2017 -- December 7, 2016

Pearl Harbor Day. See first comment and then this link: https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/one-died-at-pearl-harbor-the-other-lived-seventy-five-years-later-theyll-be-reunited/2016/12/05/79fdeee8-aaa0-11e6-977a-1030f822fc35_story.html?utm_term=.f4033163311e.

Trump: Time's magazine person of the year. 

The Recount: Day five of the Wisconsin recount is complete and Trump has gained 84 votes, while millions of dollars and countless hours of time are being squandered.

North Dakota is ranked #6 among all global crude oil plays for 2017 crude oil exploration  (posted previously). Of the 96 global crude oil plays, North Dakota is #6, Iraq (Kurdistan) is ranked #77, practically at the bottom of the list. Does that ranking matter? Let's see. 

From Reuters:
Exxon Mobil has pulled out of half of the six exploration blocks it operated in the Kurdistan region, the Iraq Oil Report reported. The oil company has walked away from its operations in the Qara Hanjeer, Arbat East, and Betwata blocks.
XOM is active in the Bakken through its subsidiary XTO which is the #2 operator in North Dakota based on net acreage. The breakeven price for Saudi Arabia is currently $93 and is forecast to drop to $80 in 2017. The breakeven price in the Bakken in the best spots currently active is well below $50.

And except for the DAPL, no wars are being fought in North Dakota.

*****************************
Brilliant

Trump is simply brilliant. After getting "everyone" excited about the Taiwan telephone call, he announces the nomination of Iowa governor Terry Branstad to be the US ambassador to CHINA. After alarming everyone with his Taiwan telephone call, he rewards CHINA by putting them at the top of the list: the first country to have the US ambassador named (after the US ambassador to the UN). This reassures China that their country is #1 on Trump's list of important countries.

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Global Warming Page

Cold records being set across the US. Much earlier than ever before. This follows Blanche, and so far, this "storm" is not even named. Chicago breaks 1940 snowfall record and the "storm" will continue. Seattle could see half of its annual rainfall in one day. Temperature plunge in the US; 35 degrees below normal across the entire country.

There has been no evidence of global warming in past 14 years. Sea levels rising? Arctic ice melting? Stories all over the place.  See "Daily Trump Thought" -- December 7, 2016.

Related? SunPower to cut 2,500 jobs on top of previous cuts.  Aluminum-roofing company having challenges navigating turbulence in the renewable energy business.This is 25% of its workforce -- and this is one industry where robots can't take the place of real humans.

***************************************

Active rigs:


12/7/201612/07/201512/07/201412/07/201312/07/2012
Active Rigs3864188193181

RBN Energy: Tallgrass's REX set to boost northeast gas takeaway capacity.
Takeaway capacity out of the Marcellus/Utica shale producing region is about to get another significant boost.
Tallgrass Energy’s Rockies Express Pipeline (REX) expects to bring the first 200 MMcf/d of its 800-MMcf/d Zone 3 Capacity Enhancement project (Z3CE) in service any day now, and ramp up to the full 800 MMcf/d by end of the year (only 20-some days from now).
Moreover, the pipeline operator has hinted that it may be able to eke out incremental Zone 3 operating capacity over and above the new design capacity in the near future. The Z3CE expansion will mark the third time in as many years that REX will increase westbound takeaway capacity out of the Marcellus/Utica region.
With each capacity boost, Northeast production volumes have risen to the occasion and the capacity has filled up. Today we examine this latest expansion and what it will mean for U.S. gas production.
Saudi Arabia's IPO: from Reuters/Bloomberg/Rigzone. This is a pretty good article. It provides another reason why Saudi Arabia was interested in getting an "OPEC" deal to cut/freeze production. Was it all about a successful IPO?
  • “Even $60 oil isn’t enough to solve all the country’s fiscal issues,’’ Apostolos Bantis, a credit analyst at Commerzbank AG in Dubai, said in an interview. “It’s more a question of building confidence in the economy. If crude stabilizes at higher prices, that will give more certainty and provide a stronger basis for the Aramco IPO.’’
  • “For the Saudis, success would look like oil prices where they are now or a bit higher,” said Robin Mills, chief executive of Dubai-based consultant Qamar Energy. “The best outcome would be fighting shale to a draw and maintaining market share.”
  • OPEC’s output deal won’t undo the fiscal damage wrought by three years of falling oil prices. For the Saudis, the agreement isn’t so much about getting the country back in the black as it is about underpinning an ambition to wean the economy off oil, Bantis said.
  • Bantis and Qamar’s Mills both see oil staying above $50 a barrel next year, with Mills forecasting Brent at between $55 to $60 for the six months that the deal is in place. OPEC can extend the deal for another six months. Brent was 0.4 percent lower at $54.72 a barrel Tuesday, December 6, 2016.
  • The country’s fiscal break-even price will drop to $79.70 a barrel this year from $92.90 in 2015, the International Monetary Fund said in October.
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The Political Page

Now that President Obama is on his way out, it is amazing to listen to MSNBC "Morning Joe." Today, there is pretty much general agreement that President Obama's Iran deal was a complete disaster. Add that to the long list, starting with Solyndra and ObamaCare.

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The Market

Dow futures up 17 points, another surprise. Nasdaq futures up 1.50. WTI is up about 10 cents, slightly above $51.

AMD soars among rumored deal. It will be interesting to see what XLNX does today; it was up a bit yesterday and hitting new 52-week highs.

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The Technology Page

I don't have Apple TV but I assume it is awesome. I don't have Apple TV because I don't know if it would make TWC TV redundant.

Having said that -- not having Apple TV -- we do have TWC TV which is quite incredible. We do have two big-screen televisions in this small two-bedroom apartment, but what we really like is the fact we can watch television on all mobiles devices in the house: laptops, tablets, and, I assume, smartphones.

Then, add a wireless Bluetooth speaker like Beats Pill or UE Boom. Apple owns Beats but talking to Apple employees a year or so ago, they felt the UE Boom was the better choice. And slightly less cost. If I had all the money in the world I would "hang" a 13" (12.9-inch) iPad Pro in each room in the house, starting with the kitchen.

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Brilliant

The cover of Time magazine in which Trump is pictured as "Man of the Year," the only subtext: President of the Divided States of America. It was noted by Mr Trump on "The Today Show" that he was not the one that divided the state of America. President Obama has been president for the past eight years; President Obama is still president; and, Trump doesn't take the oath of office until January 20, 2016. 
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