Only One New Permit After 3-Day Weekend -- July 5, 2016

Active rigs:

	7/5/2016	07/05/2015	07/05/2014	07/05/2013	07/05/2012
Active Rigs	31	76	191	188	215

Wow, a three-day weekend, only new permit, and six wells released from confidential status.

The one new permit:

• Operator: WPX
• Field: Mandaree (Dunn)
• Comments:

Wells released from the confidential list over the 3-day weekend:

• 29706, PNC, MRO, Litvin 21-17H, Murphy Creek,
• 29707, PNC, MRO, Cross 24-8H, Murphy Creek,
• 30832, SI/NC, XTO, TAT State Federal 14X-36C, Bear Creek, no production dat
• 31972, drl, Statoil, Lougheed 2-11 XW 1H, Todd, no production data,
• 31973, drl, Statoil, Lougheed 2-11 8THF, Todd, no production data,
• 32005, SI/NC, BR, CCU Bison Point 14-34 TFH, Corral Creek, no production data, 

One well coming off confidential list Wednesday:

• 31974, SI/NC, Statoil, Lougheed 2-11 7H, Todd, no production data,

Two wells coming off confidential list Thursday:
26907, see below, HRC, Fort Berthold 152-93-19D-18-6H, Four Bears, producing,
31977, SI/NC, Statoil, Lougheed 2-11 3H, Todd, no production data,

**************************************

26907, see above, HRC, Fort Berthold 152-93-19D-18-6H, Four Bears:

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
5-2016	3526	2225
4-2016	16670	15415
3-2016	16579	24788
2-2016	32939	37743
1-2016	6400	7399

******************************************

Zena Rucker 

Coming home from water polo tonight, I noted a brand new street sign at the recently completed road/intersection near Central Market on Southlake Blvd: Zena Rucker Road.

I mentioned it to Arianna and said it would be interesting to look up Zena Rucker on the internet to find out who the road was named after.

Arianna immediately told me that Zena Rucker was a very important woman in Southlake, saying she had recently seen her on the cover of a magazine, and then told me why she was important, but not quite sure of the whole story.

Zena Rucker is still living here in Southlake and has quite a story. That story can be found here.

She and her husband were aviators, flying small planes in and out from their grass runway where Southlake now is. They bought the property back in 1960 -- "in part due to their love of flying and because they heard that a large airport (what is now DFW) was going to be built in the area."

Though the original house on the land was built just after the Civil War, the Ruckers realized the small structure would not suit their family. Their current home has evolved through the years from the home they first built. Additions including his-and-hers garages flank both sides of the home. On Bill’s side is a truck he bought a few years before he passed away nine years ago, as well as a 1929 Model A Ford that’s been kept in pristine condition. (Rucker uses the truck as needed, but finds it just as easy to zip through the tall grasses on her property in her Prius or her Yamaha four-wheeler.)

Her home now is filled with memories and keepsakes, including statuary in the kitchen representing different civilizations throughout Mexican history. Rucker was born in Mexico—her father was an Irish-American from Tennessee and her mother was an Irish-Mexican—and came to the U.S. when she was nine.

Rucker had a short stint as a flight attendant for American Airlines and then became a teacher. She later became the first woman to run a Z-Yamaha motorcycle dealership in Grapevine. Rucker then obtained her pilot’s license and opened a flight school in North Texas at a time when even seeing a female in the cockpit was a rarity.

And now, in her 80s, she has become a real estate developer:

And now, at an age when most people are slowing down, the octogenarian has become a real estate developer, somewhat of a reaction to the never-ending offers she gets from developers hoping she will sell her land. (Something she is not interested in doing, by the way.)

She and her granddaughter and partner Jacqueline Craft have already developed one medical office complex on land she owns along Southlake Boulevard and have started construction on a second. They named their real estate development company Zelda LLC in memory of Bill, who used to tease Rucker by calling her a name hers was often confused with. 

Multi-Well Pad Drilling In The Bakken -- July 5, 2016

Outstanding post on multi-well pad drilling in the Bakken over at "Outrun Change."

The 15-well pad under discussion is the Hess EN-Riersgard / EN-State C pad. I have talked about this pad at these earlier posts:

• the Vern Whitten fall portfolio, November 22, 2015, an aerial photo, #28 of 39;
• the $100 million, 12-well pad, March 20, 2012
• a 12-well pad in the Alger oil field, March 20, 2012

From The Fourth Of July -- For The Granddaughters -- Nothing About The Bakken -- July 5, 2016

Preparing trout for the 4th of July.



Sophia also placed the lemon slices inside the fish.

After the trout was prepared, it was added to the grill along the following timeline:

American Ingenuity -- It Never Quits -- Jeep Track 'N Go -- July 5, 2016

********************************

Starbucks

I was just starting to go back to Starbucks after "boycotting" if for about a year -- even closing out my Starbucks "loyalty card." I stopped going after Starbucks announced it was going to raise prices, and because the experience was getting a bit old.

But I started going back, occasionally. But it looks like this, too, will end. Starbucks has announced it will raise prices by as much as 30 cents.

********************************

Comcast-Netflix Agreement

Recode reports:

Cable giant Comcast will allow popular web video streaming service Netflix onto its X1 platform, the companies confirmed after being asked by Recode about talks to do so.

Said the pair in a statement: “Comcast and Netflix have reached an agreement to incorporate Netflix into X1, providing seamless access to the great content offered by both companies. We have much work to do before the service will be available to consumers later this year. We'll provide more details at that time.”

Sources said the deal to be on the cable giant’s set-top box would be akin to the arrangement that Netflix has cut with smaller cable operators in the United States and bigger ones across the globe. Basically, the Netflix app is present on the X1 platform, for users to sign into, making it easier than using other ways to do so.

Netflix also has deals with Apple, Roku and Google’s Chromecast, with its app offered on these Internet TV services. It also is embedded in smart televisions. 

A big whoop.

********************************

On A Day When The Dow Drops 100+ Points, There Are 204 New 52-Week Highs

Including:

• ATT (a big whoop)
• Black Hills (BKH) (a big whoop, but not for me, someone else)
• MDU (who wudda guessed?)
• NextEra Energy

Only 28 issues hitting new 52-week lows. 

From SiliconBeat:

Musk is fighting back against the increasing pressure, tweeting today about a Fortune article that quotes him as saying the fatal accident “is not material to the value of Tesla.” The article looked at the timing of the release of the news of the accident, which occurred on May 7 but wasn’t disclosed by the NHTSA until last week. In the meantime, Tesla raised money in a stock offering in mid-May.

MuskMelon appears as tone deaf as Hillary. 

When one looks at the luxury EV market, it seems these models would be a huge distraction for the manufacturer.

Bakken OOIP; Saudi Arabia's OOIP, Proved, Probable, And Possible -- July 5, 2016

From "FAQs":

41. What is the current estimate of recoverable reserves of oil in North Dakota?

Update, June 7, 2013: this is very, very clear -- Denver conference. CLR: the Bakken plus TF1 at 3% recovery rate, 24 billion bbls; add TF2, TF3, and TF4, and maintain 3% recovery, and CLR estimates 32 billion bbls. Every 1% in incremental recovery factor translates into an additional nine billion barrels of estimated ultimate recoverable reserves in the field.

Update, August 29, 2012: CLR's corporate presentation suggests there may be close to one trillion bbls of original oil in place (OOIP), but from Leigh Price's estimate of 550 billion barrels. At 5% recovery, CLR states that up to 45 billion barrels of recoverable oil may exist in the Bakken. 

Update, November 2, 2011: by hitting oil in a lower seam of the Three Forks, CLR/CEO Harold Hamm says that this has the potential to add incremental reserves to our estimated 24 billion boe of technically recoverable oil and natural gas in the total Bakken. 

In October, 2010, Continental Resources (CLR)/CEO (Harold Hamm) estimates the basin in North Dakota holds 24 billion barrels of recoverable reserves. That is more than five times the "original" estimate given two years ago (2008) by the US Geological Survey. Lynn Helms, director of ND Dept of Mineral Resources opines that there will be half that amount: 12 billion barrels.

******************************

Saudi Arabia Reserves? How Big?
John Kemp Weighs In

Reuters reports:

The kingdom has proven reserves of 266 billion barrels according to government estimates submitted to the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (“Annual Statistical Bulletin”, OPEC, 2015).

If these numbers are correct, Saudi Arabia’s reserves will last for another 70 years at the average production rate of 10.2 million barrels per day reported for 2015.

But there is widespread scepticism about the official estimates, which were abruptly raised without explanation from 170 billion barrels in 1987 to 260 billion in 198.

Official reserves have remained constant every year since then at 260-265 billion barrels, even as the country has consumed or exported another 94 billion barrels. If the government data is accurate, the kingdom has managed the remarkable feat of exactly replacing each produced barrel with new discoveries or increased estimates of the amount recoverable from existing fields.

But most of the country’s giant and super-giant oil fields were discovered between 1936 and 1970 and no comparable discoveries have been made since then.

OOIP: In the 1970s, there was broad agreement that the OOIP of Saudi Arabia’s discovered oil fields was around 530 billion barrels.

P1: Proved reserves, the most conservative and prudent measure, are those which are estimated to exist, and are technically and economically recoverable, with a probability of at least 90 percent.

P2: Probable reserves are those estimated to exist and be commercially recoverable with a probability of at least 50 percent.

P3: Possible reserves, the most speculative and optimistic measure, are estimated to exist and be commercially recoverable with a probability of at least 10 percent.

In the late 1970s, Aramco put proven reserves at around 110 billion barrels, while the more speculative categories of probable and possible reserves were put at 178 billion barrels and 248 billion barrels respectively.

Saudi Arabia began reporting to OPEC that its “proved” reserves stood at around 168-170 billion barrels of crude oil.

The Saudi figure was much higher than the 110 billion barrels of proved reserves reported by the Aramco partners a few years before. But it was very close to the figure for possible reserves that the Aramco partners had reported to the U.S. Senate.

That raised the question if the Saudis had chosen to increase their reported reserve base by reporting probable reserves as proved reserves. In 1988/89, the proved reserve figure jumped again to 260 billion barrels despite no major new discoveries.

Rystad Energy, a respected consultancy, puts Saudi Arabia’s proved reserves at 70 billion barrels, and its proved and probable reserves at 120 billion barrels.

Proved reserves / OOIP: 200 billion bbls / 530 billion bbls = 38% recovery rate.

Compare generally accepted OOIP for Saudi Arabia with the OOIP of the Bakken.

FBI Appears To Have Wrapped Up The Clinton E-Mail Investigation: "Extremely Careless" -- July 5, 2016

Updates

Later, 8:13 p.m. Central Time: this is really, really cool. If Hillary wins in November, the GOP-controlled House and Senate better confirm Obama's choice for the Supreme Court; otherwise, they are going to see Loretta Lynch on the court.

Later, 6:10 p.m. Central Time: this story won't go away. This decision guarantees that Bernie Sanders' supporters will tell us today they will never vote for Sanders -- at the moment the Sanders' supporters are furious. They will tell us that there is no way they would vote for Hillary as the story gains traction. The question is whether their anger will lessen over time. This suggests to me that Hillary pushed the FBI to get this over with as quickly as possible once Bill / Loretta had their meeting. Lynch telegraphed Comey's decision when she said she would accept whatever his recommendation was. It's hard to say what the next poll will show (too many variables) but right now not one "true" Bernie Sanders support will say he/she will ever vote for Hillary. The question is whether Hillary can win them back at the convention. It's very possible this will "ignite" the Bernie Sanders supporters at the convention.

 

Original Post

... "extremely careless" is neither a crime nor worth sending to a grand jury. Yup, she's cleared. FBI director recommends "no charges" after ending Clinton e-mail investigation. Decision comes less than 48 hours after interview with Hillary; a few days after her husband meets with US Attorney General.

For something of this magnitude, obviously the decision was a) political; and, b) made quite some time ago. The Hillary interview was simply "filling a square."

At best, we will get an apology. Nope. That won't happen either.

But speaking of apologies:  PBS apologizes for Fourth of July broadcast that used previous years’ fireworks footage.“

A Capitol Fourth,” which broadcast Washington, D.C.’s fireworks Monday night, appeared to show fireworks in a clear night sky.

But the weather during this year’s Fourth of July show in D.C. was cloudy and overcast, and the show confirmed it used previous years’ footage.

After viewers complained, the show posted an apology on Twitter “for any confusion this may have caused.”

"For any confusion this may have caused." How about just admitting they lied. But, hey, what does it matter?

If Donald Trump wins, one wonders if PBS will use January 20, 2009, swearing-in footage instead, and then blame it on poor weather conditions.

*************************

Good News

The Guardian reports that climate change is the missing issue of this year's campaign.

As the primary election season turns toward a head-to-head between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, there is increasing anger and frustration over the nature of the contest. A Guardian call-out to online readers in the US asking them to reflect on the race so far was met by a barrage of criticism on the tone and substance of the world’s most important election – with the two main parties, individual candidates and the media all coming under heavy fire.

The Guardian asked readers to identify the “one issue that affects your life you wish the presidential candidates were discussing more”. Resoundingly, the largest group of participants pointed to climate change.

Somehow I have trouble buying that. Ah,  here it is, buried deep in the article:

The Guardian call-out was not a poll, and as such was not a controlled survey of opinion.

But it does illuminate a largely hidden depth of concern, particularly among liberal Americans, about a gathering global disaster that has tended to be discussed, if at all, at the fringes of the presidential debate.

Most of the respondents were liberal-leaning. About 80% said they planned to support a Democratic candidate – by comparison, around 31% of Americans overall describe themselves as Democrat (a higher 49% if you include those who say they are “Democrat-leaning”).

That disparity is likely to have influenced the fact that climate change was top of the pile of priorities for those who participated – only 19 of the 284 respondents who mentioned climate change said they were unaffiliated to a party and just two described themselves as Republican.

Well, duh.

It's hard to find the data, it's scattered through the article:

• 1,385 polled
• 577 were Bernie Sanders supporters
• 53 were going to vote for Hillary Clinton
• 81 said they would vote for Donald Trump
• 284 "mentioned" climate change (note: they are not using the phrase "global warming" any more, especially now that there is evidence that "climate change" may include "global cooling")

This almost reads like a Bill McKibben-sponsored "call out" -- wow, talk about lopsided journalism. Surveying a Rolodex of  Bernis Sanders supports. LOL.

US Auto Sales Hit Record In 1H16; GM, Toyota Losers; Nissan Huge Winner -- July 5, 2016

EV sales (link here), observations:

• Toyota has dumped the Prius; sold 11 in June, 4 the month before
• without the Priusm, Toyota has no EV in the current lineup
• Tesla Model S takes a big jump to 3,700 deliveries, up from 1,200 the month before, but lower than the 3,990 in March
• Chevy volt, no change, at around 1,900
• Ford Fusion, gaining traction, at 1,700, up from 1,453 the month before
• Tesla Model X, a huge jumpt 2,145 from 1,600 the month before, but of course, "reservations" only
• Nissan Leaf in a range of around 1,000
• the luxury cars with minimal impact (BMW, Cadillac ELR, Mercedes,  Porsche -- of those four, BMW most impressive; Mercedes least impressive

When one looks at the luxury EV market, it seems these models would be a huge distraction for the manufacturer.

From Zacks:

U.S. light-vehicle sales improved 1.5% year over year to 8.65 million units in the first half of 2016, per Autodata. This represents a new record for first-half sales results.

Sales increased 2.5% year over year to 1.5 million units in Jun 2016. However, sales on a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (“SAAR”) basis declined to 16.68 million units in the month from 17.46 million units in May 2016 and 17.01 million units in Jun 2015.

Product segments like trucks and utility vehicles recorded higher sales in June. However, car sales declined in the month.

General Motors Company GM was the leader in terms of sales volume for Jun 2016. Among the six major American and Japanese automakers, Nissan Motor Co. Ltd. NSANY recorded the maximum year-over-year sales improvement in the month.

General Motors

• 1.6% decrease y-o-y in June
• 1.4% decline in the first half y-o-y

Ford

• 6.4% increase y-o-y in June
• 4.6% increase in the first half y-o-y

Fiat Chrysler

• 7.0% increase y-o-y in June
• 6.0% increase in the first half y-o-y

Toyota (remember: Toyota just announced it was dumping its Prius due to plummeting sales)

• 5.6% decrease y-o-y in June
• 2.7% decrease in the first half y-o-y

Honda

• 3.2% increase y-o-y in June
• 5.2% increase in the first half y-o-y

Nissan

• 13.1% increase y-o-y in June
• 8.4% increase in the first half y-o-y

Outlook: U.S. auto sales are expected to improve in the second half of 2016, backed by high employment levels, rising personal income, stable fuel prices and easy availability of credit. Moreover, the high average age of cars on the U.S. roads should continue to boost replacement demand for cars.

"Before It's Too Late," Lebanon May Okay Natural Gas Drilling -- July 5, 2016

Bloomberg is reporting:

Lebanon may soon approve measures to push ahead with a stalled first auction of offshore oil and natural gas rights, ending years of political wrangling as it tries to catch up in a regional race to tap energy wealth in the eastern Mediterranean.

The auction first scheduled for November 2013 was frozen by the government’s failure to pass decrees to demarcate energy blocks, establish production-sharing contracts and specify tender protocols.

Lebanon has lagged behind neighboring Israel, Cyprus and Egypt in developing oil and gas deposits that may lie beneath its share of the Mediterranean Sea. Seismic surveys show the country could hold at least 96 trillion cubic feet of gas and 850 million barrels of oil, then-Energy Minister Gebran Bassil said in a December 2013 interview.

Exxon Mobil Corp. and Total SA are among 46 companies pre-qualified to bid to explore off the country’s coast.

Part of the problem: Lebanon has had no president for more than two years, and government institutions have been paralyzed by political divisions and sporadic violence that have deepened since the war in Syria erupted in 2011.

By the way, Lebanon's public debt is the highest as a share of annual economic output among 22 Arab nations.

But that part about not having a president for two years: perhaps the US could use Lebanon as a model come this November.

Wow, It Never Quits -- A New York Times Update On The Centerpiece Of President Obama's Climate Plan -- July 5, 2016

Yes, that was the headline in The New York Times:

A model for "clean coal" runs off the tracks. A Mississippi project, a centerpiece of President Obama's climate plan, has been plagued by problems that managers tried to conceal, and by cost overruns and questions of who will pay.

Those were the words of the Times' editors, not mine: a centerpiece of President Obama's climate plan.

I never knew this plan was traced back to President Obama. I thought it was much older than that, and it was simply an on-going project that he inherited. Let's check wiki, timeline:

• 2008: conceptual design initiated
• 2010: project approved
• 2010: construction begins

And the timeline continued, but I believe President Obama was inaugurated in early 2009, and I would assume that if the "conceptual design" was initiated in 2008, there were thoughts for this plant long before that.

I have trouble calling this "Obama's" albatross but that's what The New York Times would have us believe.

Now back to the article.

The plant was not only a central piece of the Obama administration’s climate plan, it was also supposed to be a model for future power plants to help slow the dangerous effects of global warming.

The project was hailed as a way to bring thousands of jobs to Mississippi, the nation’s poorest state, and to extend a lifeline to the dying coal industry.

The sense of hope is fading fast, however. The Kemper coal plant is more than two years behind schedule and more than $4 billion over its initial budget, $2.4 billion, and it is still not operational.

The Times asked who would pay for this debacle? Well, that's easy. The local ratepayers and if that becomes a political issue later this summer, taxpayers across the nation will pay for it. 

"Human Interest" Story Regarding First Neopanamax Ship To Transit The Expanded Panama Canal -- July 5, 2016

This is a great little "human interest" story on the first Neopanamax container ship to transit the expanded Panama Canal, at this link. New bits of trivia:

• the ship was renamed to "pay respect" to the people of Panama
• the photograph shows ample fore and after "room" in the lock -- one of the concerns of the NY Times
• the choice for which ship would go first, was determined by a "draw"

And again, there is a nice photograph at the linked article.

The Top Story Of The Century? -- US Holds More Oil Reserves Than Saudi Arabia, Russia -- First Time; And, The Gap Will Widen Over Time -- Peak Oil? What Peak Oil? -- July 5, 2016

Updates

July 7, 2016: Bloomberg's "take" on the story that US' crude oil recoverable reserves now exceed both Saudi Arabia and Russia. Some data points from that article:

• the Middle East's share of global oil production is at its highest level for about four decades
• US shale output has pushed prominent OPEC members such as Saudi Arabia to re-evaluate the wisdom of holding barrels int he ground to support prices
• top ten US producers account for less than one-third of the country's output
• Mideast production still remains very, very important but the "oil world has moved on"

Original Post 

Note: no one has noted that the gap will widen between the United States and Saudi Arabia/Russia over time -- that may be an even bigger story. I haven't seen the original study but if this study was based on analysis over the last three years, it should be noted that many of the US shale fields were taken out of play starting in late 2014 due to the Saudi Surge. These fields will eventually come back into play. None of Saudi's fields (and probably true also for Russia) were taken off-line; in fact, Saudi did what it could to maximize production. 

This story was first reported in Financial Times.

At CNBC:

The US holds more oil reserves than Saudi Arabia and Russia, the first time it has surpassed those held by the world's biggest exporting nations, according to a new study.

Rystad Energy estimates recoverable oil in the US from existing fields, discoveries and yet undiscovered areas amounts to 264bn barrels. The figure surpasses Saudi Arabia's 212bn and Russia's 256bn in reserves.

The analysis of 60,000 fields worldwide, conducted over a three-year period by the Oslo-based group, shows total global oil reserves at 2.1tn barrels. This is 70 times the current production rate of about 30bn barrels of crude oil a year, Rystad Energy said on Monday.

From the Financial Times:

Recoverable reserves — those barrels that are technologically and economically feasible to extract — are analysed by the energy industry to determine company valuations and the long-term health of an oil-producing nation’s economy. 

“There is little potential for future surprises in many other countries, but in the US there is,” said Per Magnus Nysveen, analyst at Rystad Energy, noting recent discoveries in the Permian Basin in Texas and New Mexico, which is the nation’s most prolific oil producing area. “Three years ago the US was behind Russia, Canada and Saudi Arabia.”

The analysts then point out how inexpensive it is to produce oil in the Mideast, but fail to note how the Mideast states value their oil when drawing up their annual national budgets.

By doing so -- pointing out how inexpensive it is to produce oil in the Mideast, the analysts set up the likelihood that the gap between the US and the Mideast should continue to widen. Look at the definition of "recoverable reserves" again. It is based on whether the oil is "technologically and economically feasible" to extract. Over time, based on that definition, US recoverable reserves will increase significantly and at a faster pace than the Mideast.

How big is this story? It was posted by Financial Times 23 hours ago. A google search for that headline: "US oil reserves surpass those of Saudi Arabia and Russia" produced 342,000 hits in less than 0.50 seconds. Yeah, a pretty big story.

Peak oil? What peak oil?

******************************

Saudi Arabia Reserves? How Big?
John Kemp Weighs In

Reuters reports:

The kingdom has proven reserves of 266 billion barrels according to government estimates submitted to the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (“Annual Statistical Bulletin”, OPEC, 2015).

If these numbers are correct, Saudi Arabia’s reserves will last for another 70 years at the average production rate of 10.2 million barrels per day reported for 2015.

But there is widespread scepticism about the official estimates, which were abruptly raised without explanation from 170 billion barrels in 1987 to 260 billion in 198.

Official reserves have remained constant every year since then at 260-265 billion barrels, even as the country has consumed or exported another 94 billion barrels.

If the government data is accurate, the kingdom has managed the remarkable feat of exactly replacing each produced barrel with new discoveries or increased estimates of the amount recoverable from existing fields.

But most of the country’s giant and super-giant oil fields were discovered between 1936 and 1970 and no comparable discoveries have been made since then.

OOIP: In the 1970s, there was broad agreement that the OOIP of Saudi Arabia’s discovered oil fields was around 530 billion barrels.

P1: Proved reserves, the most conservative and prudent measure, are those which are estimated to exist, and are technically and economically recoverable, with a probability of at least 90 percent.

P2: Probable reserves are those estimated to exist and be commercially recoverable with a probability of at least 50 percent.

P3: Possible reserves, the most speculative and optimistic measure, are estimated to exist and be commercially recoverable with a probability of at least 10 percent.

In the late 1970s, Aramco put proven reserves at around 110 billion barrels, while the more speculative categories of probable and possible reserves were put at 178 billion barrels and 248 billion barrels respectively.

Saudi Arabia began reporting to OPEC that its “proved” reserves stood at around 168-170 billion barrels of crude oil.

The Saudi figure was much higher than the 110 billion barrels of proved reserves reported by the Aramco partners a few years before.

But it was very close to the figure for possible reserves that the Aramco partners had reported to the U.S. Senate.

That raised the question if the Saudis had chosen to increase their reported reserve base by reporting probable reserves as proved reserves.

In 1988/89, the proved reserve figure jumped again to 260 billion barrels despite no major new discoveries.

Rystad Energy, a respected consultancy, puts Saudi Arabia’s proved reserves at 70 billion barrels, and its proved and probable reserves at 120 billion barrels.

Gasoline Demand Update -- RBN Energy -- July 5, 2016; Active Rigs In ND Back Up To 31

I've only read a little bit of today's RBN Energy post today, but it looks like another great analysis. My hunch is that it may be the best "energy" post to read today and there's going to be a lot posted today. The title of today's RBN Energy update: petroleum product exports riding high. Archived.

The upswing in U.S. gasoline demand is nothing new.

RBN blogged about it this time last year and covered issues related to delivering gasoline, diesel and jet fuel to Northeast markets a few weeks back.

In the Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) June 2016 Short-Term Energy Outlook, gasoline consumption this summer was projected to average 9.5 MMb/d, a solid 1.9% higher than the summer of 2015, which was a strong demand season itself. 

What really stands out, though, is that even with high domestic demand for gasoline, net U.S. export volumes remain impressive. [Data is presented] showing the huge shift of the U.S. from a net importer of about 1.5 MMb/d in 2006 to a net exporter of about 1.2 MMb/d over the past six months. The graph on the right in Figure 1 focuses on the 2012-16 timeframe and splits net exports into gasoline (green line) and distillates (brown line). Both gasoline and distillate exports are still trending higher, but the big news is gasoline, which has moved well into the net export category since late 2015.

I'm not going to look for it now, but a few weeks ago I opined whether the refinery strikes in France might drive US gasoline exports. In addition, gasoline demand is outpacing domestic gasoline production on the west coast of South America.

The "coolest" thing in that article: the Panama Canal was not mentioned. The expansion of the Panama Canal can only add to overall exports, all else being equal. Even if gasoline and distillates are not transported in the new larger tankers, just the fact that the canal has been widened will increase the pace of all exports.

********************************

Back To The Bakken

Active rigs back up to 31:

	7/5/2016	07/05/2015	07/05/2014	07/05/2013	07/05/2012
Active Rigs	31	76	191	188	215

Rate Of Sea Ice Expansion Increased Five-Fold In 2000 -- CosmosMagazine July 5, 2016

On July 2, 2016, I posted:

Everyone now agrees that we're experiencing or will experience a "protracted solar minimum" which means a drop in energy reaching the earth.

But a German science institute says the effects of that "solar minimum" will only be regional and won't have any effect on "global warming."

I can't make this stuff up.

Today, this item: apparently AGW is "regional." And it's driven by "natural variability." That's how scientists explain expanding Antarctic ice which dwarfs the Arctic when it comes to global ice volume. CosmosMagazine is reporting:

It’s a paradox that has scientists stumped – why, in a warming world with warming oceans, is Antarctica’s sea ice spreading and thickening each year?

Climate scientists from the US and Australia found expanding sea ice in recent years was mostly caused by natural variations in sea surface temperatures, which swamped the relatively small amount of warming due to greenhouse gases.

Sea ice – unlike the slow moving ice shelves or glacial ice – is seasonal. It forms when the ocean’s surface temperature drops to around -2 oC and chilly winds off Antarctica whip over the water, expanding and retreating each year.

Climate modelling has shown that rising sea temperatures, thanks to global warming, should stem this growth. Instead, Antarctic sea ice extends as far and wide as ever.

They found rising sea temperatures due to global warming were swamped by the interdecadal pacific oscillation, or IPO – naturally fluctuating atmospheric pressure that causes warms or cools sea surfaces over the entire Pacific Basin.

Each IPO cycle can last from 20 to 30 years. And since 1999, the IPO has been in a “negative phase”. Sea surface temperatures have plunged below average – and in Antarctica, this caused sea ice to spread far and wide.

The rate of sea ice expansion increased five-fold in 2000.

But, of course there's more.

Ever since I started blogging about AGW, I mentioned that "it all depends where you place the thermometers." The authors of this most recent study agree. I can't make this stuff up:

"This is a really complex interaction of land, atmosphere and ocean. It’s not well observed because it’s expensive – you can only look at the top of the ocean from a satellite and there are no trade routes down there," he says.

In other words, historical sea temperatures have pretty much been found only where people have placed thermometers and that was pretty much where trade ships sailed -- the northern hemisphere.

With regard to "where one places thermometers," this was posted back on November 27, 2014:

And the warmists concede: the "average temperature" of the world depends on where you place your thermometers, and if there is not a thermometer where you need one, just make up a number. (I can't make this stuff up.)

Anyway enough of this. Time to move on.

By the way, a new tag: GlobalWarming_2016_2017: the AWG year starts on the first of July every year and runs through June 30th of the following year.

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Who Knows What Is True Any More?

But if, in fact, sea ice expansion increased five-fold in 2000, perhaps the graph at this link tells the story, a graph for global temperatures the past 15,000 years: http://www.iceagenow.com/Lieberman-Kerry_bill_predicated_on_a_lie.htm.