Bakken OOIP; Saudi Arabia's OOIP, Proved, Probable, And Possible -- July 5, 2016

From "FAQs":

41. What is the current estimate of recoverable reserves of oil in North Dakota?

Update, June 7, 2013: this is very, very clear -- Denver conference. CLR: the Bakken plus TF1 at 3% recovery rate, 24 billion bbls; add TF2, TF3, and TF4, and maintain 3% recovery, and CLR estimates 32 billion bbls. Every 1% in incremental recovery factor translates into an additional nine billion barrels of estimated ultimate recoverable reserves in the field.

Update, August 29, 2012: CLR's corporate presentation suggests there may be close to one trillion bbls of original oil in place (OOIP), but from Leigh Price's estimate of 550 billion barrels. At 5% recovery, CLR states that up to 45 billion barrels of recoverable oil may exist in the Bakken. 

Update, November 2, 2011: by hitting oil in a lower seam of the Three Forks, CLR/CEO Harold Hamm says that this has the potential to add incremental reserves to our estimated 24 billion boe of technically recoverable oil and natural gas in the total Bakken. 

In October, 2010, Continental Resources (CLR)/CEO (Harold Hamm) estimates the basin in North Dakota holds 24 billion barrels of recoverable reserves. That is more than five times the "original" estimate given two years ago (2008) by the US Geological Survey. Lynn Helms, director of ND Dept of Mineral Resources opines that there will be half that amount: 12 billion barrels.

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Saudi Arabia Reserves? How Big?
John Kemp Weighs In

Reuters reports:

The kingdom has proven reserves of 266 billion barrels according to government estimates submitted to the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (“Annual Statistical Bulletin”, OPEC, 2015).

If these numbers are correct, Saudi Arabia’s reserves will last for another 70 years at the average production rate of 10.2 million barrels per day reported for 2015.

But there is widespread scepticism about the official estimates, which were abruptly raised without explanation from 170 billion barrels in 1987 to 260 billion in 198.

Official reserves have remained constant every year since then at 260-265 billion barrels, even as the country has consumed or exported another 94 billion barrels. If the government data is accurate, the kingdom has managed the remarkable feat of exactly replacing each produced barrel with new discoveries or increased estimates of the amount recoverable from existing fields.

But most of the country’s giant and super-giant oil fields were discovered between 1936 and 1970 and no comparable discoveries have been made since then.

OOIP: In the 1970s, there was broad agreement that the OOIP of Saudi Arabia’s discovered oil fields was around 530 billion barrels.

P1: Proved reserves, the most conservative and prudent measure, are those which are estimated to exist, and are technically and economically recoverable, with a probability of at least 90 percent.

P2: Probable reserves are those estimated to exist and be commercially recoverable with a probability of at least 50 percent.

P3: Possible reserves, the most speculative and optimistic measure, are estimated to exist and be commercially recoverable with a probability of at least 10 percent.

In the late 1970s, Aramco put proven reserves at around 110 billion barrels, while the more speculative categories of probable and possible reserves were put at 178 billion barrels and 248 billion barrels respectively.

Saudi Arabia began reporting to OPEC that its “proved” reserves stood at around 168-170 billion barrels of crude oil.

The Saudi figure was much higher than the 110 billion barrels of proved reserves reported by the Aramco partners a few years before. But it was very close to the figure for possible reserves that the Aramco partners had reported to the U.S. Senate.

That raised the question if the Saudis had chosen to increase their reported reserve base by reporting probable reserves as proved reserves. In 1988/89, the proved reserve figure jumped again to 260 billion barrels despite no major new discoveries.

Rystad Energy, a respected consultancy, puts Saudi Arabia’s proved reserves at 70 billion barrels, and its proved and probable reserves at 120 billion barrels.

Proved reserves / OOIP: 200 billion bbls / 530 billion bbls = 38% recovery rate.

Compare generally accepted OOIP for Saudi Arabia with the OOIP of the Bakken.