Week 34: August 21, 2016 -- August 27, 2016

When I started the blog, one of the "Big Stories" I wanted to track was the shift from the Mideast back to North America as the "center of energy" for the 21st century. I knew almost nothing about energy at the time and I had no idea where the story would take me.

The EIA shows the dominance of the Bakken in US tight oil plays. 

The "EIA Flickr image of the week" shows the dramatic increase in US fossil fuel production (production, not consumption).

Three big stories from this past week show how far "we" have come in just a few years:

• First ethane cargo set to depart US Morgan's Point Terminal; bound for Norway
• First US LNG tanker arrives in China via Panama Canal
• Sasol GTL plant, Lake Charles, LA, update: overall capital cost of $11 billion

This may have been the biggest story of the week, though I doubt most folks heard the story, and it doesn't seem to have been picked up by many news outlets yet. Time will tell whether this is an accurate interpretation of things to come for China: Chinese domestic oil production is declining; China sees "peak oil" at home. If that is accurate, it explains the "almost-urgent" interest China seems to have in claiming the South China Sea as their lake.

John Kemp posted a graphic showing the drawdown of Saudi cash reserve assets. 

But then look at this: not only are assets dwindling, and not only is Saudi Arabia apparently producing at maximum rates, the EIA posted a graphic showing how Saudi's crude oil stores are also falling. Something doesn't make sense.

For "oil bulls" worried about a Hillary presidency, apparently Warren Buffett is not. Buying more shares in Phillips 66, his company now owns 15% of PSX. My hunch is his discussions with Hillary over the past two  years reassures him that he has nothing to fear, but fear itself.

How big is the Bakken revolution? Big enough that the major oil companies don't even seem interested in the Gulf of Mexico. The federal government's most recent GOM lease sale was even worse than the previous lease sale. Another post is here. My hunch is that the liability risk is not worth it after seeing what the administration did to BP. Of course, that will never be talked about, never acknowledged, but then we can talk about the regulatory obstacles even after obtaining a lease.

An under-reported story in the Bakken is not the few permits that are being issued, but the number of already-issued permits that are being renewed. One day last week, eighteen permits were renewed. This might be a one-day record.

Operations
Active rigs in North Dakota down to 30  
CLR's creative "bookkeeping": DUCs; CLR's 2Q16 corporate presentation;
CLR sells 80,000 non-core assets in the Bakken
EURs in the Bakken approaching one million boe
Some shale drillers returning to the oil patch
DUCs are decreasing but that's because fewer wells are being drilled; in fact, three of four wells coming off confidential list go to DUC status 

Fracking
Cost of sand could go parabolic -- Mike Filloon

Pipeline
The Dakota Access Pipeline likely to be keystoned

Bakken Economy
New Williston High School opened this past week; school enrollment across the oil patch surges
Highway and road construction update 
Update on US Highway 2 bridge over Little Muddy River north of Williston