January, 2016, North Dakota Oil Production; Director's Cut -- March 12, 2016

Note: beginning with this summary of the Director's Cut, coinciding with data for the first month of a new year (2016), the summary will be significantly truncated. For those wishing to see trends over time, one will have to go back to summaries posted for previous calendar years.

See disclaimer below.

Link here.

The Director's Cut is out, March 11, 2016, with January, 2016, data.

North Dakota oil production for the month of January decreased by about 2.5%, almost a 30,000 bopd decrease compared to the previous month, December, 2015.

Because so much is carried forward from previous posts, there are likely to be errors in previous data; I would go to the source if this information is important to you.

Top four producing oil fields in the Bakken at this link.

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Some data points of interest with regard to the Red Queen

Number of producing wells

• January, 2016: 13,129 (preliminary, previous all-time high was 13,190 back in October, 2015)
• December, 2015: 13,128

Fracklog: 945 wells -- unchanged.

The number of well completions has stabilized month-over-month: 81 (final) in December to 82 (preliminary) in January.

Daily oil production (bopd): dropped 31,000 bopd from previous month.

• January, 2016: 1,122,100 (preliminary, all-time high was December, 2014, at 1,227,483 bopd)
• December, 2015: 1,152,696 (final, revised) 
• Delta:  29,507/ 1,181,787 = 2.65% decrease month-over-month (compare with 2.5% decline the previous month-over-month)

Daily well production: the number of completions stabilizes; the number of producing wells remains unchanged.

• November: oil/well/day: 88.79 bopd
• December: oil/well/day: 87.83 bopd 
• January: oil/well/day: 85.45 bopd
  

Director's Cut

January 2016 Data

January, 2016, data is presented here.

I track the "cuts" here. 

Disclaimer: this update is always done in haste; typographical and factual errors are likely. This is for my use only. If this is important to you, you should go to the source. 

Note: facts and opinions are interspersed in the note below. Do not make any investment or financial decisions based on what is posted below; there will be factual and typographical errors. If this information is important to you, go to the source.

Important data points:

• Today, pricing: $26.25
• the pricing of Bakken on the day the previous Director's Cut was posted: $16.50
• Bakken (ND sweet crude) price in February, 2016: $18.07
• Bakken (ND sweet crude) price in January, 2016: $21.13
• Fracklog: 945 (unchanged)
• Statewide flaring: 13%

Delta, crude oil production: 

• 1,152,696 - 1,122,100 = -30,596 bopd (almost identical as last month's decline)
• -30,596 / 1,152,696 = 2.56% decrease month-over-month

Oil:  

• January, 2016: 1,122,100 (preliminary)
• December, 2015:1,152,696 (final, revised)
• November, 2015: 1,181,787 (final, revised)
• October, 2015: 1,171,119 (final, revised)
• September, 2015:  1,162,159 (final, revised)
• August, 2015: 1,187,631 (final, revised)
• July, 2015: 1,206,996 (final, revised) 
• June, 2015: 1,211,328 (final)(second highest; highest was December, 2014)
• May, 2015: 1,202,615 (final)
• April, 2015: 1,169,045 (final)
• March, 2015: 1,190,502 (final); 1,190,582 bopd (preliminary)
• February, 2015: 1,178,082 bopd (revised, final); 1,177,094 (preliminary)
• January, 2015: 1,191,198 bopd (all time high was last month)
• December, 2014: revised, 1,227,483 bopd (all-time high)

Producing wells:

• January, 2016: 13,129 (preliminary)
• December, 2015: 13,128 (final revised; increase from last month)
• November, 2015: 13,100 (final revised, decreased from last month)
• October, 2015: 13,190 (final revised, new all-time high)
• September, 2015: 13,036 (final revised -- new all-time high)
• August, 2015: 13,031 (final revised -- new all-time high)
• July, 2015: 12,965 (final revised -- new all-time high)
• June, 2015: 12,868 (final revised -- new all-time high)
• May, 2015: 12,679 (final revised -- new all-time high)
• April, 2015: 12,545 (final revised -- new all-time high)
• March, 2015: 12,443 (final revised -- new all-time high)
• February, 2015: 12,199 (final revised -- new all-time high)
• January, 2015: 12,181 (preliminary -- new all-time high)
• December, 2014: 12,134 (preliminary, new all-time high)
• November, 2014: 11,951 (revised); 11,942 (preliminary, new all-time high)
• October, 2014: 11,892; revised 11,942 (preliminary, new all-time high)

Permitting: 

• February, 2016: 70 drilling
• January, 2016: 78 drilling
• December, 2015: 95 (steep decline)
• November, 2015: 125
• October, 2015: 152
• September, 2015: 154
• August, 2015: 153
• July, 2015: 233
• June, 2015: 192
• May, 2015: 150
• April, 2015: 168
• March, 2015: 190
• February, 2015: 197
• January, 2015: 246
• All-time high was 370 in 10/2012
  

Pricing: 

• March 11, 2016: $26.25
• January, 2016: $21.13
• February, 2016: $18.07
• February 17, 2016: $16.50 (post-boom low?)
• January, 2016: $21.13
• December, 2015: $27.57
• November, 2015: $32.16
• October, 2015: $34.37
• September, 2015: $31.17
• August, 2015: $29.52
• July, 2015: $39.41
• June, 2015: 47.73
• May, 2015: $44.70
• April, 2015: $38.33; $36.25 (lowest since February, 2009, and January, 2015) (all-time high was $136.29 7/3/2008)
• March, 2015: $31.47
• February, 2015: $34.11
• January, 2015: $31.41
• December, 2014: $40.74

Rig count:

• Today: 33 (lowest since March, 2007 when it was 33)
• February: 40
• January: 52
• December: 64
• November: 64
• October: 68
• September: 71
• August: 74
• July: 73
• June: 78
• May: 83
• April: 91 (lowest since January 2010)
• March: 108
• February: 133
• January: 160
• December, 2014: 181

Director's comments:  [see source]

The number of well completions has stabilized month-over-month: 81 (final) in December to 82 (preliminary) in January.

Well completions:

• January: 82 (preliminary)
• December: 81 (final)
• November: 77 (significant difference from preliminary figure)
• October: 43 (final)
• September: 123 (final)
• August: 115 (final)
• July: 119 (final)
• June: 149 (final)
• May: 116 (final)
• April: 102 (final -- astounding drop)
• March: an astounding 194 (final)
• February: 42
• January: 63
• December: 173 (preliminary)
• November: 48

Flaring: 

• capture target, current, January - December, 2015: 77% (had been 80%)
• capture target, April, 2016 - October, 2016: 80% (had been 90%)
• capture target, November, 2016 - October, 2018: 85%
• capture target, November, 2018 - October, 2020: 88%
• capture target, after October, 2020: 91%
• flaring capture percentage in January, 2016: 87%