Director's Cut: December, 2015 Data; On A Monthly Basis, December Production Exceeded November Production -- The Difference One Day Means

Updates

Later, 7:18 p.m. Central Time - Seeking Alpha's summary --

• North Dakota's crude oil production fell in December for the first time in three months, down 2.5% to 1,152,280 bbl/day, as oil producers begin to acknowledging the low-price reality rolling over the entire energy industry.
• Only 41 drilling rigs are operating in the state as of Wednesday, the lowest level since July 2009, and North Dakota producers have cut back requests to drill new wells, with only 78 permitted in January compared to 125 in November. 

It should be noted that Seeking Alpha, in the note above, did not include the price that Bakken oil was trading for today. It would have led to heart attacks among some traders.

Original Post

See disclaimer below.

Link here.

The Director's Cut is out, February 17, 2016, with December, 2015, data.

North Dakota oil production for the month of December decreased by about 2.5%, almost a 30,000 bopd decrease compared to the previous month, November, 2015.

Because so much is carried forward from previous posts, there are likely to be errors in previous data; I would go to the source if this information is important to you.

Top four producing oil fields in the Bakken at this link.

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Some data points of interest with regard to the Red Queen

Number of producing wells

• December, 2015: 13,119 (preliminary, previous all-time high was 13,190 back in October, 2015)
• November, 2015: 13,100

The number of well completions has stabilized month-over-month: 77 (final) in November to 76 (preliminary) in December.

Daily oil production (bopd):

• December, 2015: 1,152,280 (preliminary)
• November, 2015: 1,181,787 (final, revised) 
• Delta:  29,507/ 1,181,787 = 2.5% decrease month-over-month

Daily well production: so, the number of completions falls sharply; the number of producing wells rose slightly from 13,100 to 13,119.

• November: oil/well/day: 88.79 bopd
• December: oil/well/day: 87.83 bopd
  

Director's Cut

December 2015 Data

December, 2015, data is presented here.

I track the "cuts" here. 

Disclaimer: this update is always done in haste; typographical and factual errors are likely. This is for my use only. If this is important to you, you should go to the source. 

Note: facts and opinions are interspersed in the note below. Do not make any investment or financial decisions based on what is posted below; there will be factual and typographical errors. If this information is important to you, go to the source. 

The November data is posted at this link:

Important data points:

• Today, pricing: $16.50
• Bakken (ND sweet crude) price in January, 2016: $21.13
• Fracklog: 945 (24 less than at end of November)
• Statewide flaring: 15%

Delta, crude oil production: 

• 1,181,787 - 1,152,280 = -29,500 bopd
• -29,500 / 1,181,787 = 2.5% decrease month-over-month

Oil:  

• December, 2015:1,152,280 (preliminary)
• November, 2015: 1,181,787 (final, revised)
• October, 2015: 1,171,119 (final, revised)
• September, 2015:  1,162,159 (final, revised)
• August, 2015: 1,187,631 (final, revised)
• July, 2015: 1,206,996 (final, revised) 
• June, 2015: 1,211,328 (final)(second highest; highest was December, 2014)
• May, 2015: 1,202,615 (final)
• April, 2015: 1,169,045 (final)
• March, 2015: 1,190,502 (final); 1,190,582 bopd (preliminary)
• February, 2015: 1,178,082 bopd (revised, final); 1,177,094 (preliminary)
• January, 2015: 1,191,198 bopd (all time high was last month)
• December, 2014: revised, 1,227,483 bopd (all-time high)

Producing wells:

• December, 2015: 13,119 (preliminary, slight increase, month-over-month)
• November, 2015: 13,100 (final revised, decreased from last month)
• October, 2015: 13,190 (final revised, new all-time high)
• September, 2015: 13,036 (final revised -- new all-time high)
• August, 2015: 13,031 (final revised -- new all-time high)
• July, 2015: 12,965 (final revised -- new all-time high)
• June, 2015: 12,868 (final revised -- new all-time high)
• May, 2015: 12,679 (final revised -- new all-time high)
• April, 2015: 12,545 (final revised -- new all-time high)
• March, 2015: 12,443 (final revised -- new all-time high)
• February, 2015: 12,199 (final revised -- new all-time high)
• January, 2015: 12,181 (preliminary -- new all-time high)
• December, 2014: 12,134 (preliminary, new all-time high)
• November, 2014: 11,951 (revised); 11,942 (preliminary, new all-time high)
• October, 2014: 11,892; revised 11,942 (preliminary, new all-time high)

Permitting: 

• January, 2015: 78 drilling
• December, 2015: 95 (steep decline)
• November, 2015: 125
• October, 2015: 152
• September, 2015: 154
• August, 2015: 153
• July, 2015: 233
• June, 2015: 192
• May, 2015: 150
• April, 2015: 168
• March, 2015: 190
• February, 2015: 197
• January, 2015: 246
• All-time high was 370 in 10/2012
  

Pricing: 

• Today, February 17, 2016: $16.50
• January, 2016:$21.13
• December, 2015: $27.57
• November, 2015: $32.16
• October, 2015: $34.37
• September, 2015: $31.17
• August, 2015: $29.52
• July, 2015: $39.41
• June, 2015: 47.73
• May, 2015: $44.70
• April, 2015: $38.33; $36.25 (lowest since February, 2009, and January, 2015) (all-time high was $136.29 7/3/2008)
• March, 2015: $31.47
• February, 2015: $34.11
• January, 2015: $31.41
• December, 2014: $40.74

Rig count:

• Today: 41 - lowest since November, 2009, when it was 40 (all time high was 218 on 5/29/2012)
• January: 52
• December: 64
• November: 64
• October: 68
• September: 71
• August: 74
• July: 73
• June: 78
• May: 83
• April: 91 (lowest since January 2010)
• March: 108
• February: 133
• January: 160
• December, 2014: 181

Director's comments:  [see source]

The number of well completions has stabilized month-over-month: 77 (final) in November to 76 (preliminary) in December.

Well completions:

• December: 76 (preliminary)
• November: 77 (significant difference from preliminary figure)
• October: 43 (final)
• September: 123 (final)
• August: 115 (final)
• July: 119 (final)
• June: 149 (final)
• May: 116 (final)
• April: 102 (final -- astounding drop)
• March: an astounding 194 (final)
• February: 42
• January: 63
• December: 173 (preliminary)
• November: 48

Weather: 

• no significant precipitation events
• 5 days with wind speeds in excess of 35 mph (too high for completion work)
• 2 days with temperatures below -10F

Wells waiting to be completed:  

• At the end of December: ~ 945 wells waiting to be completed; 24 less than at the end of November

Flaring: 

• capture target, current, January - December, 2015: 77% (had been 80%)
• capture target, April, 2016 - October, 2016: 80% (had been 90%)
• capture target, November, 2016 - October, 2018: 85%
• capture target, November, 2018 - October, 2020: 88%
• capture target, after October, 2020: 91%
• flaring capture percentage in December: 85%

Gas capture statistics:  

• statewide: 85% (October 2014 target was 74%; CY 2015 capture target is 77%)
• FBIR Bakken: 85%