Random Look At Another Possible Example Of The "Halo Effect" In The Bakken, Part I -- January 4, 2016

Disclaimer: in a long note like this, there will be factual and typographical errors. I often see things that are not there. I often make assumptions that are incorrect. If this information is important to you go to the source. I often mix personal comments with facts provided by other sources.

A huge "thank you" to a reader for sending me this one.

Doing things a bit differently, let's look at this well back in 2014. Here is the production profile for this well back in 2013 - 2014, 500 to 600 bbls per month (the four column is "oil production"):

BAKKEN	12-2014	31	313	243	8	601	594	7
BAKKEN	11-2014	30	600	690	67	1406	1332	75
BAKKEN	10-2014	31	694	699	62	1577	1476	101
BAKKEN	9-2014	30	739	668	143	1695	1690	6
BAKKEN	8-2014	26	703	639	120	1242	1230	12
BAKKEN	7-2014	24	428	675	42	1398	783	0
BAKKEN	6-2014	15	387	226	92	665	335	0
BAKKEN	5-2014	29	541	657	52	1645	1028	0
BAKKEN	4-2014	30	613	453	103	1343	682	0
BAKKEN	3-2014	31	666	711	123	1837	1155	0
BAKKEN	2-2014	28	636	647	67	2058	1442	0
BAKKEN	1-2014	31	659	705	48	2027	1363	0
BAKKEN	12-2013	31	693	458	118	2326	1659	0
BAKKEN	11-2013	30	676	713	70	1849	1200	0
BAKKEN	10-2013	31	700	686	0	2072	1389	0
BAKKEN	9-2013	30	598	679	123	1989	1329	0
BAKKEN	8-2013	31	707	682	98	1827	1145	0

This well was so "bad" it met the definition of a "stripper well" as defined by North Dakota, and on November 19, 2014, the operator applied for Stripper Well status for this well. In the letter requesting stripper well status, the operator wrote: "The well produced from a well depth greater than 10,000 feet. During the qualifyign period, September 1, 2012, through August 31, 2013, the well produced a maximum efficient rate and the average daily production from the well was 24.2 bopd during this period."

Fast forward to the latest six months of production. See if you can spot the anomaly. To make it easier, I've put it in bold red:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	11-2015	29	11850	11980	5006	20830	9118	10867
BAKKEN	10-2015	21	6234	5638	2371	10848	2997	7462
BAKKEN	9-2015	23	162	226	45	1002	184	424
BAKKEN	8-2015	31	761	687	275	2907	972	975
BAKKEN	7-2015	31	433	419	122	2295	355	979
BAKKEN	6-2015	28	618	693	78	2298	348	114

Maybe it's just me, but I find that incredible. For some reason, this well jumped in crude oil production as much as 20-fold (20 x 500 = 10,000). Note also the jump in natural gas sold (2nd to last column).

There is no indication of any direct work on this well in the well file. The reader states that this well has always been a poor well, due to a dropped tool in the well that was never recovered. If that was mentioned in the file report, I missed it, but it makes sense and explains the production profile.

The question is: what might explain a 20-fold jump in production?

Let's look at the GIS map server to see where this well is located. The GIS map server does not yet show the horizontals of the Skaar Federal wells that "engulf" the index well. But based on the permit applications, I've drawn in the arrows where I think the horizontals will go. I apologize for the "busy-ness" of the graph. Among the arrows, the index well (production profile noted above) is almost lost:

Okay, now let's go back to some dates. Go back up to the production profile in which the production well jumped 20-fold. When did that happen? Between August and October, 2015. The Skaar Federal wells were fracked in September/October, 2015:

• 30739, 1,243, Three Forks B1, 48 stages, 7 million lbs, t9/15;
• 30740, 1,019, middle Bakken, 48 stages, 7 million lbs, t9/15;
• 30741, 1,085, Three Forks B1, 41 stages, 7 million lbs, 9/15;
• 30742, 1,736, middle Bakken, 48 stages, 11 million lbs, 10/15;
• 30743, conf, 

Finally, back to the index well:

• 17758, 617, Newfield, Alice Federal 1-28H, Sand Creek, t8/09; cum 102K 11/15; 

Part II here.

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The reader sent a photograph of the Skaar Federal 5-well pad and pipeline equipment for either a Oneok or Hiland Crude line taken in mid October when the reader was in ND.

As incredible as all that is, there is even more to the story. I will follow that up in another post, later. This post is getting way too long.

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Just to complete this page, here are the production profiles for the Skaar Federal wells:

30739:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	11-2015	29	17244	17053	10041	32076	30614	1218
BAKKEN	10-2015	22	19709	19416	9946	32417	27615	4611

30740:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	11-2015	29	20350	19990	7234	38672	37584	843
BAKKEN	10-2015	20	18280	18094	7782	31072	26364	4535

30741:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	11-2015	29	15884	15706	12024	29223	28307	665
BAKKEN	10-2015	22	15042	14779	15647	28146	25470	2486

30742:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	11-2015	29	15884	15706	12024	29223	28307	665
BAKKEN	10-2015	22	15042	14779	15647	28146	25470	2486