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Monday, January 4, 2016

Random Look At Another Possible Example Of The "Halo Effect" In The Bakken, Part I -- January 4, 2016

Disclaimer: in a long note like this, there will be factual and typographical errors. I often see things that are not there. I often make assumptions that are incorrect. If this information is important to you go to the source. I often mix personal comments with facts provided by other sources.

A huge "thank you" to a reader for sending me this one.

Doing things a bit differently, let's look at this well back in 2014. Here is the production profile for this well back in 2013 - 2014, 500 to 600 bbls per month (the four column is "oil production"):

BAKKEN12-20143131324386015947
BAKKEN11-201430600690671406133275
BAKKEN10-2014316946996215771476101
BAKKEN9-201430739668143169516906
BAKKEN8-2014267036391201242123012
BAKKEN7-2014244286754213987830
BAKKEN6-201415387226926653350
BAKKEN5-20142954165752164510280
BAKKEN4-20143061345310313436820
BAKKEN3-201431666711123183711550
BAKKEN2-20142863664767205814420
BAKKEN1-20143165970548202713630
BAKKEN12-201331693458118232616590
BAKKEN11-20133067671370184912000
BAKKEN10-2013317006860207213890
BAKKEN9-201330598679123198913290
BAKKEN8-20133170768298182711450

This well was so "bad" it met the definition of a "stripper well" as defined by North Dakota, and on November 19, 2014, the operator applied for Stripper Well status for this well. In the letter requesting stripper well status, the operator wrote: "The well produced from a well depth greater than 10,000 feet. During the qualifyign period, September 1, 2012, through August 31, 2013, the well produced a maximum efficient rate and the average daily production from the well was 24.2 bopd during this period."

Fast forward to the latest six months of production. See if you can spot the anomaly. To make it easier, I've put it in bold red:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN11-2015291185011980500620830911810867
BAKKEN10-2015216234563823711084829977462
BAKKEN9-201523162226451002184424
BAKKEN8-2015317616872752907972975
BAKKEN7-2015314334191222295355979
BAKKEN6-201528618693782298348114

Maybe it's just me, but I find that incredible. For some reason, this well jumped in crude oil production as much as 20-fold (20 x 500 = 10,000). Note also the jump in natural gas sold (2nd to last column).

There is no indication of any direct work on this well in the well file. The reader states that this well has always been a poor well, due to a dropped tool in the well that was never recovered. If that was mentioned in the file report, I missed it, but it makes sense and explains the production profile.

The question is: what might explain a 20-fold jump in production?

Let's look at the GIS map server to see where this well is located. The GIS map server does not yet show the horizontals of the Skaar Federal wells that "engulf" the index well. But based on the permit applications, I've drawn in the arrows where I think the horizontals will go. I apologize for the "busy-ness" of the graph. Among the arrows, the index well (production profile noted above) is almost lost:


Okay, now let's go back to some dates. Go back up to the production profile in which the production well jumped 20-fold. When did that happen? Between August and October, 2015. The Skaar Federal wells were fracked in September/October, 2015:
  • 30739, 1,243, Three Forks B1, 48 stages, 7 million lbs, t9/15;
  • 30740, 1,019, middle Bakken, 48 stages, 7 million lbs, t9/15;
  • 30741, 1,085, Three Forks B1, 41 stages, 7 million lbs, 9/15;
  • 30742, 1,736, middle Bakken, 48 stages, 11 million lbs, 10/15;
  • 30743, conf
Finally, back to the index well:
  • 17758, 617, Newfield, Alice Federal 1-28H, Sand Creek, t8/09; cum 102K 11/15; 
Part II here.
********************************************* 
The reader sent a photograph of the Skaar Federal 5-well pad and pipeline equipment for either a Oneok or Hiland Crude line taken in mid October when the reader was in ND.


As incredible as all that is, there is even more to the story. I will follow that up in another post, later. This post is getting way too long.
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Just to complete this page, here are the production profiles for the Skaar Federal wells:

30739:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN11-20152917244170531004132076306141218
BAKKEN10-2015221970919416994632417276154611

30740:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN11-201529203501999072343867237584843
BAKKEN10-2015201828018094778231072263644535

30741:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN11-2015291588415706120242922328307665
BAKKEN10-20152215042147791564728146254702486

30742:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN11-2015291588415706120242922328307665
BAKKEN10-20152215042147791564728146254702486

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