Director's Cut -- November, 2015 Data Posted January 15, 2016

See disclaimer below.

Link here.

The Director's Cut is out, January 15, 2016, with November, 2015, data.

North Dakota oil production for the month of November increased by about 0.4%, almost a 5,200 bopd increase compared to the previous month, October, 2015.

Because so much is carried forward from previous posts, there are likely to be errors in previous data; I would go to the source if this information is important to you.

Top four producing oil fields in the Bakken at this link.

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Some data points of interest with regard to the Red Queen

Number of producing wells

• November, 2015: 13,077 (preliminary, decreased from last month)
• October, 2015: 13,190 (final revised, new all-time high) 

The number of well completions fell sharply from 43 (final) in October to 26 (preliminary) in November.

Daily oil production (bopd):

• November, 2015: 1,176,314 (preliminary)
• October, 2015: 1,171,119 (final, revised) 
• Delta:  5,195/ 1,171,119 = 0.44% increase month-over-month

Daily well production: so, the number of completions falls sharply; the number of producing wells fell from 13,190 to 13,077; that represents a 0.86% drop, and yet the daily crude oil production increased. 

• October: oil/well/day: 88.79 bopd
• November: oil/well/day: 90.00 bopd
  

Director's Cut

November 2015 Data

November, 2015, data here.

I track the "cuts" here. 

Disclaimer: this update is always done in haste; typographical and factual errors are likely. This is for my use only. If this is important to you, you should go to the source. 

Note: facts and opinions are interspersed in the note below. Do not make any investment or financial decisions based on what is posted below; there will be factual and typographical errors. If this information is important to you, go to the source. 

The November data is posted at this link:

Important data points:

• Today, pricing: $20.00
• Bakken price in December: $27.57
• Fracklog: 969 (6 less than at end of October, previous reporting period)
• Completions: 26 (43 in October, 2015) -- wells continue to go  into SI/NC status
• Statewide flaring: 16% (up a bit from 14% last month) 

Delta, crude oil production: 

• 1,176,314 - 1,171,119 = 5,195
• 5,195/ 1,171,119 = 0.44% increase month-over-month

Oil:  

• November, 2015: 1,176,314 (preliminary)
• October, 2015: 1,171,119 (final, revised)
• September, 2015:  1,162,159 (final, revised)
• August, 2015: 1,187,631 (final, revised)
• July, 2015: 1,206,996 (final, revised) 
• June, 2015: 1,211,328 (final)(second highest; highest was December, 2014)
• May, 2015: 1,202,615 (final)
• April, 2015: 1,169,045 (final)
• March, 2015: 1,190,502 (final); 1,190,582 bopd (preliminary)
• February, 2015: 1,178,082 bopd (revised, final); 1,177,094 (preliminary)
• January, 2015: 1,191,198 bopd (all time high was last month)
• December, 2014: revised, 1,227,483 bopd (all-time high)

Producing wells:

• November, 2015: 13,077 (preliminary, decreased from last month)
• October, 2015: 13,190 (final revised, new all-time high)
• September, 2015: 13,036 (final revised -- new all-time high)
• August, 2015: 13,031 (final revised -- new all-time high)
• July, 2015: 12,965 (final revised -- new all-time high)
• June, 2015: 12,868 (final revised -- new all-time high)
• May, 2015: 12,679 (final revised -- new all-time high)
• April, 2015: 12,545 (final revised -- new all-time high)
• March, 2015: 12,443 (final revised -- new all-time high)
• February, 2015: 12,199 (final revised -- new all-time high)
• January, 2015: 12,181 (preliminary -- new all-time high)
• December, 2014: 12,134 (preliminary, new all-time high)
• November, 2014: 11,951 (revised); 11,942 (preliminary, new all-time high)
• October, 2014: 11,892; revised 11,942 (preliminary, new all-time high)

Permitting: 

• December, 2015: 98 (steep decline; new record)
• November, 2015: 125
• October, 2015: 152
• September, 2015: 154
• August, 2015: 153
• July, 2015: 233
• June, 2015: 192
• May, 2015: 150
• April, 2015: 168
• March, 2015: 190
• February, 2015: 197
• January, 2015: 246
• December, 2014: 251
• All-time high was 370 in 10/2012
  

Pricing: 

• Today, 2015: $20.00 (now lower than the previous low-point since Bakken play began was $22.00 in December 2008)
• December, 2015: $27.57
• November, 2015: $32.16
• October, 2015: $34.37
• September, 2015: $31.17
• August, 2015: $29.52
• July, 2015: $39.41
• June, 2015: 47.73
• May, 2015: $44.70
• April, 2015: $38.33; $36.25 (lowest since February, 2009, and January, 2015) (all-time high was $136.29 7/3/2008)
• March, 2015: $31.47
• February, 2015: $34.11
• January, 2015: $31.41
• December, 2014: $40.74

Rig count:

• Today: 65 - lowest since November, 2009, when it was 63 (all time high was 218 on 5/29/2012)
• December: 65
• November: 64
• October: 68
• September: 71
• August: 74
• July: 73
• June: 78
• May: 83
• April: 91 (lowest since January 2010)
• March: 108
• February: 133
• January: 160
• December, 2014: 181

Director's comments:  [see source]

The number of well completions fell sharply from 43 (final) in October to 26 (preliminary) in November.

Drilling rig count: 

• has decrease 15 so far in January, 2016; dropped 1 from October to November, 2015
• dropped 3 from September to October, 2015
• dropped 5 from June to July
• dropped 5 from May to June
• dropped 8 from April to May
• dropped 17 from March to April 8
• dropped 25 February to March
• dropped 27 from January to February
• dropped 7 from November to December
• dropped 21 from December to January
• dropped 23 from January to date of previous month's Director's Cut

Well completions:

• November: 26 (preliminary)
• October: 43 (final)
• September: 123 (final)
• August: 115 (final)
• July: 119 (final)
• June: 149 (final)
• May: 116 (final)
• April: 102 (final -- astounding drop)
• March: an astounding 194 (final)
• February: 42
• January: 63
• December: 173 (preliminary)
• November: 48

Weather: 

• no significant precipitation events
• 5 days with wind speeds in excess of 35 mph (too high for completion work)
• no days with temperatures below -10F

Wells waiting to be completed:  

• At the end of November: 969 wells waiting to be completed; 6 less than at the end of October
• At the end of October, an estimated 975 wells waiting to be completed; 105 less than at the end of September (per NDIC) -- 1,091 - 975 = 116
• At the end of September, an estimated 1,091 wells were waiting to be completed; 98 more than the end of August (per NDIC)
• At end of August, an estimate 993 wells waiting to be completed; 79 more than end of July
• At end of July, an estimated 914 wells waiting to be completed, 70 more than at end of June
• At end of June, an estimated 844 wells waiting to be completed
• At end of May, an estimated 925 wells were waiting to be completed, no change
• At end of April, an estimated 925 wells were waiting to be completed, an increase of 45
• At end of March, an estimated 880 wells were waiting to be completed, a decrease of 20
• At end of February, an estimated 900 wells waiting to be completed, an increase of 75
• March, 2015, Director's Cut -- 825 wells -- an increase of 75-- January data
• Previous Director's Cut -- 750, a decrease of 25

Flaring: 

• capture target, current, January - December, 2015: 77% (had been 80%)
• capture target, April, 2016 - October, 2016: 80% (had been 90%)
• capture target, November, 2016 - October, 2018: 85%
• capture target, November, 2018 - October, 2020: 88%
• capture target, after October, 2020: 91%
• flaring capture percentage in November: 84% (slightly down from October); percent flared 16%
• flaring capture percentage in October: 86%; percent flared 14%
• finally, the Tioga gas plant was down to 71% of capacity, well below the 85% capacity reported last month (and that was down slightly from previous month) capacity (92% last month; 90% prior; and, 93% previous to that)
• the Lake Sakakawea gas gathering expansion project was approved, but it was approved too late for the 2015 construction season, resulting in a one-year delay.

Gas capture statistics:  

• statewide: 84% (October 2014 target was 74%; CY 2015 capture target is 77%)
• FBIR Bakken: 86% (same as last month)

Fracking policies/regulations: (see source linked above; way too much to post)