Bakken As Laboratory -- May 5, 2015 -- Refracking May Not Be The Best Way To Go -- EOG

Reuters via Rigzone is reporting:

HOUSTON/WILLISTON, N.D., May 5 (Reuters) - Refracking, the practice of fracking an oil and gas well a second time, is still too unpredictable to rely on as a way to slash costs and increase output during the oil price slump, top U.S. shale oil executives said on Tuesday.

Oilfield service companies, including Schlumberger NV and Baker Hughes Inc., have touted refracking as a cheap way to revive output from existing shale wells. Output from existing wells, measured in barrels per day, normally drops as much as 70 percent in the year of operation. Also, some wells were not thoroughly fracked the first time.

But executives from producers say the refracking technology, while promising, remains tricky. "We have not tried any refracks. Our outlook on that is that it is really technical," said Bill Thomas, CEO of EOG Resources Inc., widely regarded as one of the most efficient U.S. shale oil producers.

"We believe that just drilling a new well, and kind of starting fresh ... is probably the preferred way to go." 

I like the byline: Houston/Williston, ND. Hoo-ahh!

But, then, of course, this article on Whiting's opportunity for re-fracks. 

Years ago when it took 45 days to drill a well, re-fracking looked like a better option. Now, when they can drill a well in 10 - 15 days, EOG/CEO may be completely correct. But whether one re-fracks, or starts all over, either way should be beneficial to the oil service companies.

The Bakken as laboratory.

Halo Effect Revisited -- May 5, 2015

Update

May 6, 2015: after writing all of that below, there's always the possibility of mis-allocation if production was commingled; I'm not going to follow-up on this for now; just something to be aware of; [a reader reminded me of that some time ago in a different post: large production number could be due to 'mis-allocation' during early commingling; random update, March 20, 2015]. 

Original Post

This is why I love to blog about the Bakken.

I don't think I've blogged about this one before; if I have, I've forgotten.

This is really, really cool.

First, look at this production profile, only the last eleven months or so:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	3-2015	19	5150	5252	667	11562	11328	197
BAKKEN	2-2015	28	8427	8442	1097	19345	19025	264
BAKKEN	1-2015	31	12082	12158	1973	25910	20753	5095
BAKKEN	12-2014	31	15002	14875	2250	29428	17606	11760
BAKKEN	11-2014	29	12289	12438	2604	20878	2377	18446
BAKKEN	10-2014	17	7005	6713	1991	11756	1782	9942
BAKKEN	9-2014	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	8-2014	18	3980	3992	401	7959	7745	179
BAKKEN	7-2014	31	7128	7222	373	14570	13727	781
BAKKEN	6-2014	30	8107	8067	318	15769	12953	2756
BAKKEN	5-2014	31	8503	8480	361	14081	12934	1085

Notice anything unusual about it? Yup, in August, 2014, it was taken off-line and was put back on-line in October, 2014. When it went off-line it was producing 7K bbls/month and production was decreasing.  When it went back on-line in October, it produced 12K and then 15K the following month. Four things can explain the increase (and a pump is not one of them):

• the well was re-worked
• the well was re-fracked
• the halo effect of a neighboring well being fracked
• "build-up" which occurs when a well is taken off-line

The production profile above was from this well:

• 20589, 4,815, Whiting, Tarpon Federal 21-4H, Twin Valley, middle Bakken, t10/11; cum 518K 3/15; 

This well was fracked back 10/10/11 (October, 2011). It was not re-fracked in September, 2014, to explain the jump in production.

There is nothing in the file report to suggest why the increase in production in October 2014. It was not a work-over rig and it was not re-fracked; I can say that with almost 100% certainty; I'll explain later.

One possibility is the "halo effect" of a neighboring well being fracked. So, let's check the nearest horizontal well (laterally, not vertically). That would be:

• 27520, 6,002, Whiting, Flatland Federal 11-4TFH, t10/14; cum 311K 3/15;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	3-2015	31	46708	46286	4808	181103	180141	900
BAKKEN	2-2015	28	46881	47420	4187	146103	143797	2250
BAKKEN	1-2015	31	52430	52198	4093	141901	128516	13323
BAKKEN	12-2014	31	52103	51904	3664	123971	115165	8744
BAKKEN	11-2014	30	50823	51268	4155	112069	42428	69581
BAKKEN	10-2014	31	61727	60615	12213	117291	11381	105860
BAKKEN	9-2014	27	0	0	0	44	0	0

And, yes, indeed, it was fracked in the September, 2014, time frame which explains why # 20589 above was taken off-line.

The only problem: #27520 is a Three Forks well. It's hard to believe that fracking a Three Forks well would affect a middle Bakken well, at least according to some / many.

So, we move to the middle Bakken well that was fracked at the same time:

• 27521, 5,002, Whiting, Flatland Federal 11-4HR, t10/14; cum 259K 3/15;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	3-2015	31	26998	26811	3157	100230	99670	498
BAKKEN	2-2015	28	31865	32428	3174	92376	90898	1422
BAKKEN	1-2015	31	45023	44921	3898	104257	94408	9787
BAKKEN	12-2014	31	50609	50398	4036	111706	103765	7879
BAKKEN	11-2014	30	47947	48334	4104	98162	37160	60942
BAKKEN	10-2014	30	56457	55440	15512	129670	12583	117038
BAKKEN	9-2014	27	0	0	0	44	0	0

By the way, what happened to another older well in this same area when these two new wells were fracked? Take a look at #22361; it was taken off-line at the same time as #20589, when #27520 and #27521 were fracked. When it came back on-line, production was significantly increased:

• 22361, 4,971, Whiting, Tarpon Federal 21-4-3H, t12/12; cum 363K 3/15:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	3-2015	31	7102	7089	862	17251	16895	294
BAKKEN	2-2015	28	6708	6684	848	16108	15832	220
BAKKEN	1-2015	31	8045	8094	1176	18163	14533	3568
BAKKEN	12-2014	31	9929	9900	1611	20821	12446	8313
BAKKEN	11-2014	28	11105	11506	1385	20222	2302	17864
BAKKEN	10-2014	22	11284	10777	666	19804	3003	16759
BAKKEN	9-2014	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	8-2014	19	4688	4700	630	11281	10990	255
BAKKEN	7-2014	31	8257	8339	313	20234	19086	1086
BAKKEN	6-2014	30	8204	8152	326	20321	16707	3554
BAKKEN	5-2014	31	8013	8022	374	22733	20917	1754
BAKKEN	4-2014	30	8971	8962	433	25371	24510	80

Pretty nice bump up in production, huh?

I think I read somewhere that when a well is taken off-line, its production jumps when it comes back on-line simply because of the "build-up" that occurs. That could explain everything.

It's hard to believe that the "build-up" could result in production by that amount - it seems to be a pretty healthy increase.

But then note this: the increase in production, for whatever reason, is very short-lived -- only two to three months.

In addition to the "explosion" what else is required for a successful frack? Proppant. The propannt is there to help maintain the pores or the channels. A neighboriing frack does not put additional proppant into the neighboring well.

Whether the jump in production is due directly to a neighboring frack or is due simply to a "build-up" while the index well is off-line, the fact is that we see a jump in prodution.

Now, think about that.

During the slump in the price of crude oil (since October, 2014), Bakken operators are circling the wagons, putting their wells in the best spots from Williston to Watford City to the Parshall area. In other words, the wells that have been drilled in the past few months and likely to be drilled in the next twelve months are concentrated where older Bakken wells already exist.

In addition to "circling the wagons" (concentrating the wells to a more limited area), the operators are delaying completion (fracking) of these wells. There may be upwards of 1,000 wells waiting to be fracked (well above the expected 250 wells).

Obviously these 1,000 wells won't be fracked all at once, but we're going to see a lot of new wells fracked with newer techniques (including much more pressure and proppant) in an area already congested with producing wells sometime in the next twelve months.

Even if the production increase per well lasts only two to three months, there could be a significant increase in production overall in older Bakken wells simply because:

• there are so many wells already there, and
• these wells are in some great areas

Part of the reason some of these areas are so good is because of natural fractures; if so, the "halo effect" should be even more evident.

To complete the narrative, earlier I said: the increase in production was not a work-over rig and it was not re-fracked; I can say that with almost 100% certainty.

They don't do work-overs on wells near a well that is being fracked; in fact, they take those wells off-line completely (as they did above) for safety reasons. Also, there has been minimal interest in re-fracking in the past few months with the slump in prices; these wells were not coincidentally re-fracked. 

My narrative may be completely off base; that's fine. But the numbers don't lie.

Total vertical depth of three of the wells:

• 27520: 10,678 feet (Three Forks)
• 20589: 10,579 feet (Middle Bakken)
• 22361: 10,560 feet (Middle Bakken)

A graphic of the wells under discussion:

The distance between #27521 and #22361 is 0.68 miles, about 3,600 feet. That distance certainly speaks against a "halo effect" but if there is already a lot of natural fracturing in this area ...

... don't get hung up on whether this is due to the "halo effect" of fracking. The bigger point is the potential for a significant jump in production from older wells as the backlog of unfracked wells start getting fracked, regardless of the reason.

Note: I think I have the laterals identified correctly, but I do make mistakes more often than not. If I find I've made a mistake, I will update the graphic.

Spend Some Time On This One -- May 5, 2015; White Butte Oil Operations With Three High-IP Dual Lateral Wells On 320-Acre Spacing In Antelope Field

Active rigs:

	5/5/2015	05/05/2014	05/05/2013	05/05/2012	05/05/2011
Active Rigs	86	186	192	210	177

Six (6) new oil and gas permits --

• Operators: CLR (4), Enerplus, HRC
• Fields: Brooklyn (Williams), Heart Butte (Dunn), Eagle Nest (Dunn)
• Comments: take a look at this HRC well in Eagle Nest -- almost 70,000 bbls in one month;

Nine (9) producing wells completed:

• 21385, 2,221, White Butte Oil Operations, LLC, Panzer 1-20MLH, 320-acre spacing, Sanish pool, Antelope, t4/15; cum 35K 6/15;
• 21386, 1,905, White Butte Oil Operations, LLC, Panzer 2-20MLH, 320-acre spacing, Sanish pool, Antelope, t4/15; cum 56K 6/15;
• 21387, 2,502, White Butte Oil Operations, LLC, Panzer 4-20MLH, 320-acre spacing, Sanish pool, Antelope, t4/15; cum 29K 6/15;
• 26388, 1,680, BR, CCU North Coast 31-25TFH, Corral Creek, t4/15; cum --
• 28288, 1,844, BR, Shenandoah 24-36TFH, Keene, t4/15; cum --
• 28391, 1,163, XTO, Lundin Federal 31X-9H, North Fork, t4/15; cum --
• 28392, 1,705, XTO, Lundin Federal 31X-9D, North Fork, t4/15; cum --
• 28393, 1,328, XTO, Lundin Federal 31X-9G, North Fork, t4/15; cum --
• 29471, 1,423, Slawson, Wolf 2-4MLH, Big Bend, t3/15; cum --

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You May Want To Spend Some Time On This One

More information on White Butte Panzer wells here.

These are still the only three White Butte permits/wells (October 6, 2015):

• 21385, 2,221, White Butte, Panzer 1-20MLH, Antelope field, Sanish pool (Three Forks), 320-acre spacing; dual stacked laterals, t4/15; cum 53K 7/15;
• 21386, 1,905, White Butte, Panzer 2-20MLH, Antelope field, Sanish pool (Three Forks), 320-acre spacing; dual stacked laterals, t4/15; cum 70K 7/15;
• 21387, 2,502, White Butte, Panzer 4-20MLH, Antelope field, Sanish pool (Three Forks), 320-acre spacing; dual stacked laterals, t4/15; cum30K 7/15; off line almost all of 7/15; no production 8/15; 

There is no explanation in the file report why #21387 is off-line; there are no wells in the area that are being fracked or drilled. [Later: it turns out all three wells were re-fracked in 2016; it was the second lateral of each well that was being fracked. All three wells are back on line. Posted 1/18.]

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Some data points about those Panzer wells:

The White Butte Oil Panzer wells were originally Slawson permits, 320-acre spacing units; approved back in late August, 2011; in early 2014, Slawson requested that the permit be amended to allow for an additional lateral and to rename #21385, Panzer 1-20MLH. On October 10, 2013, the the three Panzer wells were transferred to White Butte from Slawson.

The narrative for the 1-20MLH is not yet available (unless I missed it).

The 2-20MLH is described as a single section dual-lateral consisting of two 4,504' - 5,234' long laterals drilled to the south. The first lateral accessing the second bench of the Three Forks was completed on November 11, 2014; while the second lateral that penetrated the middle Bakken was completed November 27, 2014. 

The second curve was landed at 10,972 feet into the middle Bakken, after drilling the Three Forks lateral and then coming back and milling a window in the casing of the vertical hole. 

While drilling the dual-lateral well, the initial curve was landed into the deepest of the two targeted intervals.

Panzer 4-20MLH is a single-section, dual-lateral accessing the first bench of the Three Forks; it appears the second lateral was also in the first bench of the Three Forks. 

I believe these are the only three White Butte Oil Operations wells in North Dakota at this time.  

White Butte Oil Operations, LLC, is a North Dakota Foreign Limited-Liability Company which filed on June 4, 2014. The Registered Agent for this company is located in Bismarck, ND; the company's principal address is in Wichita, KS. Its address is 727 N Waco Ave Ste 400, Wichita, KS.

Slawson Exploration has an address at 727 N. Waco Ste 400, Wichita, KS 67203. 

Just for the fun of it, google: stacked laterals slawson montana.

The purple areas are the only 320-acre spacing units in this area:

 The three Panzer wells:

************************************** Dry hole:

• 29280, dry, MBI Oil & Gas, Bahley, Stark County; 

One well coming off the confidential list Wednesday:

• 29254, drl, Zavanna, Sigurd 32-29 6H, Stockyard Creek, no production data,

Released Today By EIA: Implications Of Increasing Light Tight Oil Production For US Refining -- May 5, 2015

Link is here.

This would have been nice to have several years ago to help folks understand the types of crude oil being produced.

The full report is 149 pages but I believe the summary is found in three sections (on one page):

2.1: Overview
2.2: Low production case
2.3: High production, current crude export restrictions
2.4: High production, no crude export restrictions

This is the type of data that Congress will use to defend whatever position they take with regard to exports.

Snippet From Today's EOG Conference Call -- 1Q15

• EOG Resources  plans to increase drilling activity as soon as oil prices stabilize at $65/bbl - probably in Q4 2015 - CEO William Thomas said on today's earnings conference call.
• Thomas anticipates EOG would return to double-digit growth in 2016, and in this year's Q3 may begin finishing wells that it has left half-drilled, with a decision likely in July; 
• "We don’t want to get in a hurry... We don’t want to jump-start completions" and then see the price fall, the CEO said.
• Thomas joins Pioneer Natural Resources, whose CEO Scott Sheffield said last month he was preparing for a return to growth and may begin adding rigs as soon as June.

One word: amazing. 

Transcript here. 

Staggering; Random Update On Two Huge Bakken Wells -- May 5, 2015

Updates

September 20, 2015: production profile for this well updated:

• 21963, 4,447, HRC, Fort Berthold 148-95-26A-35-2H, Eagle Nest, application specified Three Forks but it appears to be a middle Bakken well, originally 1280-acre spacing; originally Petro-Hunt application, then G3; changed to 4 sections; this well is on a 6-well pad; most of the wells have similar production profiles; still lots of flaring, no geology report; 49 stages, 5.1 million lbs; t3/15; cum 80K 3/15; 

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	7-2015	31	17994	18134	11307	17100	14901	1982
BAKKEN	6-2015	29	19674	19547	12215	18356	15658	2495
BAKKEN	5-2015	15	14437	14549	7318	13305	12509	691
BAKKEN	4-2015	30	41425	41400	18849	40867	38314	2343
BAKKEN	3-2015	31	68893	69049	32649	66141	58038	7886
BAKKEN	2-2015	24	11391	10953	8347	7799	7440	191

Original Post

 

Posted just for newbies to show just how exciting the Bakken can be. Look at the production from this well in one month in the table below:

• 21963, 4,447, HRC, Fort Berthold 148-95-26A-35-2H, Eagle Nest, application specified Three Forks but it appears to be a middle Bakken well, originally 1280-acre spacing; originally Petro-Hunt application, then G3; changed to 4 sections, no geology report; 49 stages, 5.1 million lbs; t3/15; cum 80K 3/15;The HRC Fort Berthold well produced more oil in one month than the "best well in the basin" to date:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	5-2015	15	14437	14549	7318	13305	12509	691
BAKKEN	4-2015	30	41425	41400	18849	40867	38314	2343
BAKKEN	3-2015	31	68893	69049	32649	66141	58038	7886
BAKKEN	2-2015	24	11391	10953	8347	7799	7440	191

• 27520, 6,002, Whiting, Flatland Federal 11-4TFH, Twin Valley, 97 stages, 4.2 million lbs, t10/14; cum 311K 3/15;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	5-2015	27	28754	29152	3567	130024	129332	640
BAKKEN	4-2015	30	36976	37084	4012	67961	67354	547
BAKKEN	3-2015	31	46708	46286	4808	181103	180141	900
BAKKEN	2-2015	28	46881	47420	4187	146103	143797	2250
BAKKEN	1-2015	31	52430	52198	4093	141901	128516	13323
BAKKEN	12-2014	31	52103	51904	3664	123971	115165	8744
BAKKEN	11-2014	30	50823	51268	4155	112069	42428	69581
BAKKEN	10-2014	31	61727	60615	12213	117291	11381	105860
BAKKEN	9-2014	27	0	0	0	44	0	0

Think of all the story lines:

• middle Bakken vs Three Forks
• significant difference in IPs
• first month production vs record second month protection
• 91 stages vs 49 stages
• similar amounts of proppant

Terrorists On Verge Of Taking Baghdad Refinery (Again); Iraqis Rushing In Troops -- Radio -- May 5, 2015

Subject line says it all -- that was on radio a few minutes ago.

Breitbart's report four days ago, ISIS storms Iraq's largest refinery:

A spokesman for U.S. Central Command, which oversees American-led airstrikes against the Islamic State (ISIS/ISIL), told reporters that that the jihadist group was on the defensive and losing territory in Iraq.

Air Force Col. Patrick Ryder, a Centcom spokesman, briefed reporters last Friday on U.S. operations against ISIS, discounting the terrorist group’s ability to mount major attacks.

“When you look across the entire battle space and look at where ISIL was last summer and look at where ISIL is today, [they] continue to be on the defensive in Iraq and they’re losing territory,” according to Ryder (just last Friday -- four days ago).

“While initial reports may sometimes give the impression [ISIL is on the offensive], we see no evidence that they’re able to do so,” he added.

Fast forward to a week later: some news reports are painting a different picture.

Various news outlets are reporting that ISIS has seized most of the Baiji oil refinery, the largest in Iraq, located north of Baghdad in Salahuddin province.

Oil is trading a little bit over $60; a 2.6% increase for the day.

****************************

Canadian CBR

Bakken.com is reporting:

A growing share of Canadian oil-by-rail traffic is made up of tough-to-ignite undiluted heavy crude and raw bitumen, say industry executives, as companies scramble to cut expenditures with the price of crude down more than 40 percent since June.

By eliminating the cost of diluting with ultra-light condensate, heavy oil offers rail shippers an opportunity to claw back a few dollars per barrel in transportation costs.

Official data does not break down the different Canadian crudes shipped by rail but interviews with industry executives suggest undiluted heavy and raw bitumen shipments now make up roughly a quarter of the estimated 200,000 barrel per day (bpd) oil-by-rail market.

An added bonus is that heavy crude and bitumen are far less combustible than the Bakken and Canadian synthetic crudes involved in fiery crashes that spurred the Canadian and U.S. governments on Friday to tighten safety rules for trains carrying oil.

With very high boiling and flashpoints they fall outside Packing Groups 1 and 2, used to classify the more volatile types of crude oil for transport, and are already shipped in double-hulled cars, meaning they should be unaffected by last week’s tank car phase-out rules.

This Is Not An Investment Site; Do Not Make Any Investment Decisions Based On What You Read Here -- May 5, 2015

These are short 30-second sound bites; there will be typographical and factual errors. These are for my own enjoyment; if I were you, I would not read these. If you came here for the Bakken, move on. Nothing to see here. I'm just waiting for the coffee to brew.

A lot of companies of interest reporting earnings after hours including Halcon.

SRE reported this morning: beat forecasts:

• profits rises 77% -- WSJ
• beats 1Q profit forecasts -- AP
• tale of the tape -- Zachs
• 1Q15 earnings rise  -- press release
• transcript -- Seeking Alpha

Shares plummet. Don't you just love investing? Profits rise 77%; huge potential in Mexico; and shares fall. Paying 2.5%.

And from Seeking Alpha: Sempra Energy beats by $0.33, misses on revenue

• Sempra Energy: 1Q15 of $1.71, beats by $0.33
• Revenue at $2.7B (-3.6% Y/Y) misses by $390 million 

*********************************

Archer Daniels, similar story.

Baytex, on the other hand, reports a bigger loss, and share prices rise significantly.

Sprint: gained subscribers; lost more money than forecast. Lost 6 cents/share; forecast a loss of 4 cents/share.

US trade deficity jumps to 6-year high! I remember when much of the trade deficit was due to all that OPEC oil that was being imported. Now imports have dropped substantially and the trade deficit his a 6-year high. The strong dollar is to blame. There was also pent-up demand due to work stoppages at west coast ports that are now "back to normal."

*************************

After Hours

SM Energy misses by $0.08, misses on revs; Co maintains production guidance at 60.4-63.5 MMBOE : Reports Q1 (Mar) earnings of $0.21 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.08 worse than the Capital IQ Consensus Estimate of $0.29; revenues fell 42.2% year/year to $365.9 mln vs the $543.15 mln consensus.

WPX Energy beats by $0.47, beats on revs : Reports Q1 (Mar) earnings of $0.32 per share, $0.47 better than the Capital IQ Consensus Estimate of ($0.15); revenues fell 36.0% year/year to $572 mln vs the $554.3 mln consensus.

Devon Energy misses by $0.03, misses on revs; raises production, lowers cap-ex: Reports Q1 (Mar) earnings of $0.22 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.03 worse than the Capital IQ Consensus of $0.25; revenues fell 12.3% year/year to $3.27 bln vs the $3.74 bln consensus. 

SolarCity beats by $0.08, beats on revs; guides Q2 EPS below consensus, revs below consensus: Reports Q1 (Mar) loss of $1.52 per share, $0.08 better than the Capital IQ Consensus Estimate of ($1.60); revenues rose 6.3% year/year to $67.5 mln vs the $57.73 mln consensus.

Newfield Expl misses by $0.06, misses on revs; Company reiterates 2015 production and capital investment guidance : Reports Q1 (Mar) earnings of $0.02 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.06 worse than the Capital IQ Consensus Estimate of $0.08; revenues fell 38.9% year/year to $349 mln vs the $440 mln consensus.

Plains All Amer beats by $0.03, misses on revs : Reports Q1 (Mar) earnings of $0.57 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.03 better than the Capital IQ Consensus Estimate of $0.54; revenues fell 49.1% year/year to $5.94 bln vs the $10.65 bln consensus. 

Halcon Resources misses by $0.02, misses on revs : Reports Q1 (Mar) loss of $0.04 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.02 worse than the Capital IQ Consensus Estimate of ($0.02); revenues fell 50.5% year/year to $136.2 mln vs the $227.61 mln consensus.

CBR To East Coast Refineries Setting New Records -- EIA; May 5, 2015

Folks may be interested in looking at some of the nice wells QEP will be reporting today, from the Grail. Link here.

Active rigs:

	5/5/2015	05/05/2014	05/05/2013	05/05/2012	05/05/2011
Active Rigs	85	186	192	210	177

RBN Energy: the Marcellus/Utica, again -- risk of huge oversupply to the northeast this summer.

Daily EIA "energy cookie":

Monthly rail receipts of crude oil accounted for more than half (52%) of the crude oil supply to East Coast refineries in February. As U.S. and Canadian production of crude oil has increased, crude supply by rail to East Coast (PADD 1) refineries has grown, displacing waterborne imports of crude oil from countries other than Canada, such as Nigeria. While refinery utilization in Petroleum Administration for Defense District (PADD) 1 in early 2015 has been below typical levels, this still marks the first time in EIA's dataset that crude deliveries by rail have accounted for such a high percentage of East Coast refinery supply. --- EIA

Tesla update in today's WSJ. Subdued remarks in Japan. Elon Musk:

“We don’t have supergrand ambitions. It’s not like we expect to be, like, the leading seller or even remotely close to that,” he said, according to a transcript of the interview. “If you look at our sales last year, world-wide, it was only about 32,000 cars. That was for the entire world. And this year, maybe, we’ll be a little bit above 50,000 cars. So, we’re only talking a few thousand cars here. It’s not a huge number.”

I wouldn't make a lot of this; folks are very humble in Japan.

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