August, 2015 Data, Director's Cut -- October 13, 2015; Fracklog Increases; Production Down Slightly

August, 2015, data here.

I track the "cuts" here. 

Disclaimer: this update is always done in haste; typographical and factual errors are likely. This is for my use only. If this is important to you, you should go to the source. 

Note: facts and opinions are interspersed in the note below. Do not make any investment or financial decisions based on what is posted below; there will be factual and typographical errors. If this information is important to you, go to the source. 

The August data is posted at this link: https://www.dmr.nd.gov/oilgas/directorscut/directorscut-2015-10-13.pdf

Important data points:

• Today, pricing: $35.00
• Bakken price in September: $31.17
• Fracklog: 993 (79 more than at end of July, previous reporting period)
• Completions: 115 (119 in July, 2015) -- more wells going to SI/NC status
• Statewide flaring: 20% (no change from previous month) 

Delta, crude oil production: 

• 1,186,444 -1,206,966 = - 20,522
• 20,522 / 1,206,966 = 1.7% decrease month-over-month

Oil:  

• August, 2015: 1,186,444
• July, 2015: 1,206,996 (final, revised) 
• June, 2015: 1,211,328 (final)(second highest; highest was December, 2014)
• May, 2015: 1,202,615 (final)
• April, 2015: 1,169,045 (final)
• March, 2015: 1,190,502 (final); 1,190,582 bopd (preliminary)
• February, 2015: 1,178,082 bopd (revised, final); 1,177,094 (preliminary)
• January, 2015: 1,191,198 bopd (all time high was last month)
• December, 2014: revised, 1,227,483 bopd (preliminary - 1,227,344 bopd - preliminary, new all-time high)
• delta: see above

Producing wells:

• August, 2015: 13,016 (preliminary -- new all-time high)
• July, 2015: 12,965 (final revised -- new all-time high)
• June, 2015: 12,868 (final revised -- new all-time high)
• May, 2015: 12,679 (final revised -- new all-time high)
• April, 2015: 12,545 (final revised -- new all-time high)
• March, 2015: 12,443 (final revised -- new all-time high)
• February, 2015: 12,199 (final revised -- new all-time high)
• January, 2015: 12,181 (preliminary -- new all-time high)
• December, 2014: 12,134 (preliminary, new all-time high)
• November, 2014: 11,951 (revised); 11,942 (preliminary, new all-time high)
• October, 2014: 11,892; revised 11,942 (preliminary, new all-time high)
• September, 2014: 11,758 (revised); 11,741 (preliminary; new all-time high)
• August, 2014: 11,565

Permitting: 

• September, 2015: 154
• August, 2015: 153
• July, 2015: 233
• June, 2015: 192
• May, 2015: 150
• April, 2015: 168
• March, 2015: 190
• February, 2015: 197
• January, 2015: 246
• December, 2014: 251
• November, 2014: 235
• October, 2014: 328
• September, 2014: 261
• August, 2014: 273
• All-time high was 370 in 10/2012
  

Pricing: 

• Today, 2015: $35.00
• September, 2015: $31.17
• August, 2015: $29.52
• July, 2015: $39.41
• June, 2015: 47.73
• May, 2015: $44.70
• April, 2015: $38.33; $36.25 (lowest since February, 2009, and January, 2015) (all-time high was $136.29 7/3/2008)
• March, 2015: $31.47
• February, 2015: $34.11
• January, 2015: $31.41
• December, 2014: $40.74
• November, 2014: $60.61
• October, 2014: $68.94
• Sept, 2014: $74.85
• August, 2014: $78.46

Rig count:

• Today:  67 - lowest since November, 2009, when it was 63 (all time high was 218 on 5/29/2012)
• August: 74
• July: 73
• June: 78
• May: 83
• April: 91 (lowest since January 2010)
• March: 108
• February: 133
• January: 160
• December, 2014: 181
• November, 2014: 188
• October, 2014: 191
• Sept, 2014: 193
• August, 2014: 193
• July, 2014:  192

Director's comments:  [see source]

The number of well completions rose sharply from 119 (final) in July to 115 (preliminary) in August.

Drilling rig count: 

• rig count increased 1 from July to August; decreased 3 from August to September, and dropped 4 more this month (October)
• dropped 5 from June to July
• dropped 5 from May to June
• dropped 8 from April to May
• dropped 17 from March to April 8
• dropped 25 February to March
• dropped 27 from January to February
• dropped 7 from November to December
• dropped 21 from December to January
• dropped 23 from January to date of previous month's Director's Cut

Rig utilization: [see source]

• no change
• 20,000+ feet rigs: 40% (down from 45% last report)
• shallow well rigs: 20% (also down from 25% last report)

Well completions: 

• August: 115 (preliminary)
• July: 119 (final)
• June: 149 (final)
• May: 116 (final)
• April: 102 (final -- astounding drop)
• March: an astounding 194 (final)
• February: 42
• January: 63
• December: 173 (preliminary)
• November: 48

Weather: 

• one significant precipitation event in the Minot
• 6 days with wind speeds in excess of 35 mph (too high for completion work)
• no days with temperatures below -10F

Wells waiting to be completed:  

• At end of August, an estimate 993 wells waiting to be completed; 79 more than end of July
• At end of July, an estimated 914 wells waiting to be completed, 70 more than at end of June
• At end of June, an estimated 844 wells waiting to be completed
• At end of May, an estimated 925 wells were waiting to be completed, no change
• At end of April, an estimated 925 wells were waiting to be completed, an increase of 45
• At end of March, an estimated 880 wells were waiting to be completed, a decrease of 20
• At end of February, an estimated 900 wells waiting to be completed, an increase of 75
• March, 2015, Director's Cut -- 825 wells -- an increase of 75-- January data
• Previous Director's Cut -- 750, a decrease of 25
• Red Queen: 110 - 120 completions per month to maintain 1.2 million bopd

Flaring: 

• capture target, current, January - December, 2015: 77% (actual, 80%)
• capture target, April, 2016 - October, 2016: 80%(had been 90%)
• capture target, November, 2016 - October, 2018: 85%
• capture target, November, 2018 - October, 2020: 88%
• capture target, after October, 2020: 91%
• flaring today: 20%, same as last month
• finally, the Tioga gas plant was up slightly to 92% of capacity (88% last month; 90% prior; and, 93% previous to that)
• the Lake Sakakawea gas gathering expansion project was approved, but it was approved too late for the 2015 construction season, resulting in a one-year delay.

Gas capture statistics:  

• statewide: 80% (October 2014 target was 74%; CY 2015 capture target is 77%)
• FBIR Bakken: 77% (was 81% last month)
• NOTE: the daily volume of gas flared from July to August was up 9.5 MMCFD; May to June was up just 1.6 MMcfd; previous month the volume of flaring increased 30  MMCFD (previous month increased 23.5 MMCFD (a reversal from last month when flaring had decreased month-over-month)
• NOTE: previously announced -- ONEOK announced plans to hook up 700 wells in the Bakken (natural gas hook-ups)

Fracking policies/regulations: (see source linked above; way too much to post)