Director's Cut -- April, 2015, Data

Bakken price in May: $44.70
Fracklog: 925 (an increase of 45); I had thought it would have been closer to 1,000
Completions: 94 -- a very, very low number; many wells going to SI/NC status
To maintain production near 1.2 million bopd: 110 - 120 completions needed each month
Statewide flaring: 18%

Director's Cut is out.

I track the "cuts" here. 

Disclaimer: this update is always done in haste; typographical and factual errors are likely. This is for my use only. If this is important to you, you should go to the source. 

Comments on today's Director's Cut can be found here: link here. 

Oil:

• April, 2015: 1,168,502 (prelminary)
• March, 2015: 1,190,502 (final); 1,190,582 bopd (preliminary)
• February, 2015: 1,178,082 bopd (revised, final); 1,177,094 (preliminary)
• January, 2015: 1,191,198 bopd (all time high was last month)
• December, 2014: revised, 1,227,483 bopd (preliminary - 1,227,344 bopd - preliminary, new all-time high)
• delta:

Producing wells: 

• April, 2015: 12,537 (preliminary -- new all-time high)
• March, 2015: 12,443 (final revised -- new all-time high)
• February, 2015: 12,199 (final revised -- new all-time high)
• January, 2015: 12,181 (preliminary -- new all-time high)
• December, 2014: 12,134 (preliminary, new all-time high)
• November, 2014: 11,951 (revised); 11,942 (preliminary, new all-time high)
• October, 2014: 11,892; revised 11,942 (preliminary, new all-time high)
• September, 2014: 11,758 (revised); 11,741 (preliminary; new all-time high)
• August, 2014: 11,565

Permitting: drilling permit activity decreased slightly from February to March and significantly more from March to April as operators positioned themselves for low price 2015 budget scenarios.

• May, 2015: 150
• April, 2015: 168
• March, 2015: 190
• February, 2015: 197
• January, 2015: 246
• December, 2014: 251
• November, 2014: 235
• October, 2014: 328
• September, 2014: 261
• August, 2014: 273
• All-time high was 370 in 10/2012
  

Pricing:

• Today, 2015: $48.00
• May, 2015: $44.70
• April, 2015: $38.33; $36.25 (lowest since February, 2009, and January, 2015) (all-time high was $136.29 7/3/2008)
• March, 2015: $31.47
• February, 2015: $34.11
• January, 2015: $31.41
• December, 2014: $40.74
• November, 2014: $60.61
• October, 2014: $68.94
• Sept, 2014: $74.85
• August, 2014: $78.46

Rig count:

• Today: 79 - lowest since December, 2009 (all time high was 218 on 5/29/2012)
• April: 91 (lowest since January 2010)
• March: 108
• February: 133
• January: 160
• December, 2014: 181
• November, 2014: 188
• October, 2014: 191
• Sept, 2014: 193
• August, 2014: 193
• July, 2014:  192

Director's comments:

Rig counts continue to fall. The active rig count is 5 to 8 rigs below what operators indicated would be their 2015 average if oil price remained below $65/bbl. The number of well completions dropped sharply from 244 (final) in March to 94 (preliminary) in April.

Drilling rig count:

• dropped 8 from April to May, has since fallen 4 more from May to today
• dropped 17 more from March to April 8
• dropped 25 from February to March
• dropped 27 from January to February
• dropped 7 from November to December
• dropped 21 from December to January
• dropped 23 from January to date of previous month's Director's Cut

Rig utilization:

• no change
• 20,000+ feet rigs: 45% 
• shallow well rigs: 25% 

Well completions:

• April: 94 (preliminary -- astounding drop)
• March: an astounding 194 (final)
• February: 42
• January: 63
• December: 173 (preliminary)
• November: 48

Weather:

• one significant precipitation even in Dickinson
• 10 days with wind speeds in excess of 35 mph (too high for completion work)
• no days with temperatures below -10F

Wells waiting to be completed:

• At end of April, an estimated 925 wells were waiting to be completed, an increase of 45
• At end of March, an estimated 880 wells were waiting to be completed, a decrease of 20
• At end of February, an estimated 900 wells waiting to be completed, an increase of 75
• March, 2015, Director's Cut -- 825 wells -- an increase of 75-- January data
• Previous Director's Cut -- 750, a decrease of 25
• Red Queen: 110 - 120 completions per month to maintain 1.2 million bopd

Flaring:

• down slightly at 18%
• Tioga gas plant steady at 84% of full capacity (83% last month)
• expansion of gas gathering from south of Lake Sakakawea is still delayed

Gas capture statistics:

• statewide: 82% (October 2014 target was 74%; January 2015 capture target is 77%)
• FBIR Bakken: 88% (83% last month; 79% before that; 77% the month before)
• percent of flaring was unchanged; the volume of flaring decreased 13.9 MMCFD (huge change; last month, there was an increase of 7.7 MMCFD)

Fracking policies/regulations:

BLM revised final regulations for hydraulic fracturing on federal and Indian lands were published in the CFR on 3/26/15 so they will go into effect 6/26/15. North Dakota and Colorado have intervened in the Wyoming legal challenge of the rules a nd plan to seek an injunction or temporary restraining order to prevent the rules going into effect until the case is settled.