For Investors Only -- July 24, 2014; Three Airlines (Southwest, Alaska Air, United Continental) Beat Forecasts -- Despite Record High Sustained Energy Prices; Anyone Betting Against A Global Economic Recovery Needs To Look At Ford Results This Quarter; New Home Sales Plummet; Past Home Sales Figures Revised Significantly Downward

Note: wells coming off confidential list today have been posted. XTO reports a "high-IP" well; Oasis has two huge wells. 

The next big thing: mobile payments -- and it will be head-to-head, Apple vs Facebook. Apple has the eco-niche: hardware, integrated operating system, a cult-following, a handshake with IBM. But the killer technology Apple has: iBeacon. One won't even have to take one's credit card out or mobile device out to pay for one's purchase. iBeacon's range is measured in meters, and is scalable/flexible/personal. Apple doesn't talk much about iBeacon; it's just there. iBeacon even has its own wiki entry. I talk about "the next big thing" here. 

Fourteen (14) companies announce increased dividends, including:

• Carbo Ceramics
• Dupont
• Norfolk Southern

Yahoo!Finance In-Play

• Southwest Airlines beats by 9 cents; reports record quarterly operating income
• Alaska Air beats by 2 cents
• United Continental beats by 15 cents
• Dr Pepper Snapple beats by 16 cents
• Cabela's beats by 10 cents
• Caterpillar beats by 16 cents
• Noble energy beats by 8 cents

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment decisions based on anything you read here or anything you think you may have read here. 

Dunkin' Donut blames global warming global cooling extreme weather the rain for lackluster sales. Someone isn't buying that excuse:

The doughnut and coffee chain is getting dunked by investors after its earnings report. The company matched Wall Street EPS estimates at 47 cents a share, but revenue missed.

As you probably already guessed this is where we return to weather.

Here are some problems with that excuse: 1) It's Bull. Dunkin sells coffee and doughnuts, not bathing suits and sunscreen 2) Weather isn't in Dunkin's control. I'm not that fired up to own a doughnut company that effectively goes out of business when it rains and I don't have an investing edge on weather 3) It's lazy.

Whatever is wrong with Dunkin I know for sure it won't get fixed because management is apparently all standing in the parking lot shaking their fists at clouds.

Early morning trading:

• CVX on a tear; up another dollar; hits a new 52-week high -- probably an all-time high
• SRE up a bit; COP flat
• WLL up a bit; KOG follows, but flat
• TPLM, OAS both down
• So, back to CVX: what's moving CVX? No news yet today, but quite a few stories yesterday, including this one at Seeking Alpha: the most under-valued DJIA component. As recently as 2012, this company paid an 81-cent-dividend; it was just increased from a buck to $1.07 this past May, 2014; and it's one company unlikely to be bought by Warren Buffett 
• COP has gone from a 50-cent dividend to 69 cents in the same time period, but also a PSX spin-off that is paying 2.30%

The Ford story is compelling; Bloomberg is reporting:

Ford Motor Co., the second-largest U.S. automaker, posted profit that topped analysts’ estimates as sales in China increased and the company reported its first profit in Europe in three years.

Ford reported its 21st consecutive profitable period, with net income of $1.3 billion, or 32 cents a share, compared with $1.23 billion, or 30 cents, a year earlier, according to a statement today. Excluding one-time costs, second-quarter profit was 40 cents a share, beating the 36-cent average estimate of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. North American operations also reported record pretax results.

Rising sales in China and Europe helped to offset the negative effects of a currency crisis in Venezuela, as well as higher taxes and increased costs to introduce 23 new models worldwide this year. Ford sales in China soared 35 percent in the year’s first half to a record 549,256 vehicles, while deliveries rose 6.6 percent in Europe, which is recovering from a deep recession. Ford has said profits will decline this year as it spends to roll out new models such as the aluminum-bodied F-150 pickup, its top seller.

Regardless where the market / WTI crude oil end up today, it's an incredible day. Think about this:

• first-time unemployment claims hit 8-year low (long-term benefits expired in January, 2014)
• Ford sales sore 35% in China (not trivial) in the year's first half, and only 1 million vehicles adjusted for full year; lots of growth left
• three airlines report earnings that beat expectations
• majority of companies reporting earnings are beating estimates
• Facebook surprises
• mobile payments the next big thing
• and, the Bakken keeps chugging along 

The US sells first condensate to Asia in more than 40 years. Reuters is reporting:

South Korea and Japan have purchased the first condensate, or ultra-light oil, from the United States since the easing of a 40-year-old ban on U.S. crude oil exports, sources familiar with the matter told Reuters on Thursday.

The U.S. has recently softened a total ban on crude oil exports in place since the Arab oil embargo of the 1970s, allowing energy companies to export a variety of ultra-light oil if it has been minimally refined.

Refined products, such as gasoline and diesel, are not restricted.

The relaxation of the ban coincides with a resurgence in domestic shale oil and gas production as the U.S. seeks to assure energy importers in Europe and Asia of alternative sources of supply.

Energy hungry nations, grappling with disruption fears as geopolitical crises in Eastern Europe and the Middle East deepen, would welcome steady shipments of oil and gas from a stable exporter such as the U.S.

"It means very little in itself, but because of current events it takes on a more political or symbolic importance," said Alex Yap, a senior oil analyst at FGE.

This does not fit the narrative: new home sales plummet in June. Let's see how The AP spins this story:

New home sales fell 8.1 percent last month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 406,000, the Commerce Department said Thursday. The report also revised down the May sales rate to 442,000 from 504,000.

That revision is quite significant; that represents either a 12% or a 14% difference depending whether one uses 442,000 or 504,000 as the denominator. So, last month, those "stellar" first-time-home-sales numbers were bogus.

Nice comeback. Some time ago I posted a comment about the high price of gasoline and "anonymous" asked me what at what price gasoline "should" be priced. Today, Yahoo!Finance has a nice response in terms of an analogy. The analogy has to do with the Dow at 17,000:

The S&P 500 hit yet another record on Wednesday propelled by decent earnings from Apple and Pepsi.

For the year the total return of the S&P is approaching 10%.

Since the generational lows of March 2009 the benchmark measure of the stock market has gained more than 200%.

If your first reaction to that reminder is to pitch a fit over what stocks “should” be doing you’re missing the point, and probably the rally as well.

"Should" isn’t a concept that carries much weight around Wall Street.

The market is about absolutes not intent. The key to getting in front of the tape isn’t figuring out what should happen but determining why a rally is taking place. Only after you’ve done that can you decide whether or not you want to get involved.

Insert "gasoline at $5.00/gallon" wherever the article talks about the Dow at 17,000." Gasoline at $5.00/gallon is not good for the economy; what gasoline "should" cost is missing the point (their phrase, not mine).