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Thursday, May 15, 2014

ObamaCare: A Football Analogy

Sometime ago I saw ObamaCare as a metaphor for a football game. Here is where we stand:
ObamaCare

  • July 19, 2015: the second half is just beginning: the Supreme Court upheld ObamaCare with first significant challenge; insurers are predicting 30% premium hikes for 2016; and Native Americans want out
  • May 15, 2014: half-time is almost over. The half-time show is quickly coming to an end. We are now hearing, as predicted, premiums are going to go up significantly in 2015. There are two story lines here: first, premiums are going up significantly in 2015. Second, some folks have only paid their first premium for 2014 (sticker shock) and now they are going to be told that their premiums will be even higher in 2015; they have not had a chance to get used to the unexpectedly high premiums.
  • April 1, 2014: half-time. The enrollment period for 2014 is "officially" over, though it's probably been extended in several states (it was extended in California). We haven't even gotten to the second half and insurers are already worried about the backlash when they announce the premiums for 2015
  • March 26, 2014: coming up to half-time, the ObamaCare "drop-dead" deadline (March 31, 2014) has been delayed two more weeks, on the "honor" system. Musings on ObamaCare to date. The administration crows that 6 million signed up, topping their target. The original target was a paltry 7 million but lowered to 6 million. During the Obama/Hillary presidential nomination content in 2008, it was said that 30 million to 46 million Americans were uninsured. ObamaCare had nothing to do with uninsured minions; it had to do with cost shifting health care costs from the CEO to the employee.
  • February 4, 2014: barely into the second quarter, and we're getting an update from the booth (CNBC, The Washington Times) -- Congress is reporting that the estimate has now tripled, the number of folks that will be locked out of the job market due to ObamaCare. The second quarter is not going to look pretty for the home team. 
  • January 5, 2014: We are underway: the second quarter. Both sides are now trotting out human interest stories, how good ObamaCare is, how bad ObamaCare is. "They" say ObamaCare is now fully executed; not quite true: the employer mandate was delayed a full year, and the individual mandate for all intents and purposes is all delayed a full year. Everyone has estimates of the number of folks who enrolled (mostly Medicaid, it appears), but the government can not even tell us how many have paid their first premium. There are occasional stories about the real metrics that are not being followed in the media (who enrolled; how many have paid). And now Forbes provides another ankle-biting article on ObamaCare: the "taxes" Americans will now pay for ObamaCare.
  • Updates, analysis of the first quarter of the ObamaCare debacle: the website rolled out in October; the chief information officer resigned in November; the chief operating officer (#2 in the chain) retired in December; federal enrollments shockingly low; overall enrollment may be less than 2 million; goal was at least 3 million at this point; insurers "need 7 million"; the ObamaCare act was necessary for the 30 million uninsured, it was said; at least 8 million have lost their coverage since October (two months); corporate mandate delayed a year; individual mandate effectively delayed indefinitely; deadlines extended; chaos and confusion; White House won't consider putting a single person (a "CEO") in charge of his biggest program despite requests of insurers, his own political party [even the quasi-governmental US Postal Service has a "CEO" that takes all the heat for problems]
  • The break between the first and second quarter. What to watch for in the second quarter: off-side penalties. 
  • The end? Obama repeals ObamaCare for 2014. The end of the first quarter: the rollout was a debacle, and now we learn that Obamacare shuns the best hospitals in the world (MD Anderson, Cedars Sinai Los Angeles, Mayo)
  • The Passing Game, the first quarter: fraudulent subsidies will be passed on to taxpayers
  • The Ground Game, the first quarter: not going well; Obama says shop around; his czar says if you want to keep your doctor, you will have to pay more; get over it;
  • Rollback: Obama says "Yes"; states say "No on rollback to canceled policies"
  • The Rollout:  ObamaCare -- the death spiral begins
  • The Prelude:  ObamaCare; no additional posting to this site as of October 24, 2013 
  • ObamaCare Cost Shifting 
  • The website and security issues
  • ObamaScare Headlines
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ObamaCare Was Just A Big Political Mess

The Daily Ticker is reporting: Obamacare "wasn't fundamental change at all, just a big political mess."

Actually, the "talking head" is quite wrong. ObamaCare is/was a fundamental change, and it is a big political mess.

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