September 26, 2019:
estimates, updated.
June 16, 2018: the next USGS survey of the Bakken/Three Forks was scheduled for 2020. North Dakota congressional representatives
successfully lobbied the USGS to begin the survey sooner. That was announced on December 11, 2017. This suggests to me that
the USGS should begin the new survey not later than by the end of 2018. Let's hope.
May 10, 2013: back-of-the-envelope calculations. The four counties with the most activity: Dunn, McKenzie, Mountrail, Williams, around 10,000 square miles. One section is a square mile. It's pretty much agreed there will be four wells in each section in this part of the Bakken: 40,000 wells. EURs/well of 500,000 are certainly likely.
40 x 500 = 20,000 x 1,000 x 1,000 = 20 billion bbls of oil in these four counties.
Now, let's say someone suggests 4 wells/section throughout the entire 4-county area is a little optimist, then we have one-half of Burke County (500 sq miles); Divide County (1,000 sq miles); Stark County (1,000 sq miles -- where Whiting's Pronghorn Prospect is): 2,500 sq miles = 2,500 sections. Let's say just two wells per section at 300,000 bbls EUR. 2 wells/section x 2,500 sections = 5,000 wells x 300,000 bbls = 5 x 300 = 1,500 x 1,000 x 1,000 = another 1.5 billion bbls, which is extremely conservative.
So, very, very conservative, 20 billion bbls. USGS says 7.3 billion, and Lynn Helms says the 5% probability figure of 11 billion bbls is a reasonable target. And I do believe that folks like Harold Hamm were looking at 20 billion bbls recoverable from the middle Bakken alone, even before considering the Three Forks.
May 10, 2013: I just noticed that Lynn Helms, Director, NDIC, released a press release on the USGS 2013 survey of the Bakken. He said he was happy with the survey, stating clearly that the figure of 11 billion barrels of recoverable oil was an appropriate target. The mean of 7.38 billion bbls was not mentioned, suggesting that Lynn Helms feels strongly that 11 billion bbls is the more likely figure.
May 6, 2013: Minneapolis StarTrib article on assessment.
Later, 5:27 pm: Carpe Diem's take on the new assessment.
“These world-class formations contain even more energy resource
potential than previously understood, which is important information as
we continue to reduce our nation’s dependence on foreign sources of
oil,” said Secretary of the Interior Sally Jewell. “We must develop our
domestic energy resources armed with the best available science, and
this unbiased, objective information will help private, nonprofit and
government decision makers at all levels make informed decisions about
the responsible development of these resources.”
Does this mean SecInterior Sally Jewell will support fracking?
Later, 2:59 pm: The Oil & Gas Journal is reporting:
The Bakken and Three Forks formations in North Dakota, South Dakota,
and Montana hold an estimated mean of 7.38 billion bbl of undiscovered,
technically recoverable crude oil, the US Geological Survey announced.
The updated assessment
represents a two-fold increase from the 2008 estimate of 3.65 billion
bbl in the Bakken, it noted.
The update includes the Three Forks for the
first time.
USGS’s latest assessment found that the Bakken has a 3.65 billion bbl
estimated mean resource—unchanged from 5 years ago—and Three Forks has
an estimated mean 3.73 billion bbl. The formations’ combined estimate
ranges from 4.42 million bbl, with a 95% chance of production, to 11.43
billion bbl, with a 5% chance.
Other data points:
- 6.7 Tcf of associated / dissolved natural gas
- 0.53 billion bbls of natural gas liquids
The narrative continues:
Gas estimates ranged from 3.43 Tcf (with a 95% chance of production) to
11.25 Tcf (with a 5% chance) and 0.23 billion bbl (95%) to 0.95 billion
bbl (5%) of NGLs. These estimates represent a nearly three-fold increase
in mean gas and NGL resource estimates from the 2008 assessment, due
primarily to the inclusion of Three Forks Formation, USGS said.
Later, 12:17 pm: Tweets keep coming. Bits and pieces starting to flow re: USGS estimate: Hoeven: 7.4 billion is a mean number.
Top line is 11.4 billion barrels. Hoeven says both numbers likely conservative. Just between you and me, there is a huge difference between 7.4 billion and 11.4 billion. Using a calculator, I get a difference of 4 billion. The four-billion-delta exceeds the 3.6 billion bbl USGS estimate in 2008. In other words, the USGS has just announced "another Bakken" has been discovered in the United States. It is located, coincidentally enough, in western North Dakota.
Original Post
The Grand Forks Herald is reporting:
The U.S. Geological Survey said today there is nearly twice as much
recoverable oil in the Williston Basin than its estimate of five years
ago.
The USGS has determined that there are approximately 7.4
billion barrels of oil that could be pumped from western North Dakota
and eastern Montana.
The last USGS study, released in April 2008,
identified 3.65 billion recoverable barrels of oil in the Bakken
formation. The new estimate includes oil that could come from the Three
Forks formation in addition to the Bakken formation.
Some have already noted: 3.65 x 2 = 7.3. The new estimate is 7.4. So I don't quite understand the
GFH's reporter saying that the "7.4 is
nearly twice as much." The fact is:
7.4 is more than twice as much. And then we find out that 7.4 is the "mean" number; in fact, the top line was significantly higher. [Later: now that I see more data, as provided by
The Oil & Gas Journal, it makes sense why the
GFH reporter said "nearly twice as much."]
We'll have to wait to see the report for the full details.
If the recovery rate is 5%, then we're talking 148 billion bbls of original oil in place.
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Later, 11:57 am:
Platts is now tweeting: