Global Warming: So Cool -- The Debate Has Been Going On Since 1955

Note To The Granddaughters
For background to this post, one might want to look at my notes elsewhere and scroll down to the chapter on "Cyclogenesis/Weather Forecasting." My notes are for me and may not make sense to others; if interested in the topic, you will really enjoy the book.

Then, the second bit of data that folks should review: the #1 greenhouse gas is water vapor. Anthropogenic CO2 is inconsequential as a greenhouse gas. That is not to say antrhopogenic CO2 is not important for other reasons, but it is inconsequential as a greenhouse gas. I've been saying that for a couple of years now. One can find references across the internet to back it up. One can also references across the internet to refute it.

I am reading a most delightful, a most interesting, a most incredible book: George Dyson's Turing's Cathedral, c. 2012.

During and shortly after WWII weather forecasting became very important, rivaling the development of thermonuclear weapons, both of which (thermonuclear weapon development and weather forecasting) pushed the development of the computer.

I was quite surprised to see the extent that weather forecasting had on the development of the computer. It is covered in Chapter 9, Cyclogenesis, in Dyson's book, pp 154 to 174.

Between 1945 and 1955, meteorologists, using computers for the first time, were getting better and better at weather forecasting. The goal was to make weather forecasting deterministic, and weather forecasts to "infinity."

From page 171:

[John] von Neumann, while a master of simplifying assumptions, was realistic about the obstacles.

"Even if we were adequately informed, the inclusion of turbulence and radiation in the prediction equations would be quite involved," he announced.

Nearly all the phenomena under consideration were unstable, and minute differences could be amplified into large effects.

"For example, only about 1/100,000 of all the water on earth occurs in vapor form in the atmosphere; yet the presence of water vapor makes a difference of 40 degrees C in the average temperature of the earth, " he observed. "This is more than twice the difference between the temperature at the time of maximum glaciation and that at the time of total deglaciation of the earth."

"Man-made" CO2 represents but 3% of all greenhouse gases, not including water vapor. Water vapor is the number #1 "greenhouse gas" by a huge margin; again, anthropogenic CO2 represents but 3% of all greenhouse gases.

The book continues:

The twenty-nine attendees, although hopeful about modeling the climate, acknowledged the problem to be highly complex.

"Consideration was given to the theory that the carbon dioxide content of the atmosphere has been increasing since the beginning of the industrial revolution, and that this increase has resulted in a warming of the atmosphere since that time," the proceedings report.

"Von Neumann questioned the validity of this theory, stating that there is reason to believe that most of the industrial carbon dioxide introduced into the atmosphere must already have been absorbed by the ocean."

The debate was on.

Sigmund Fritz, of the US Weather Bureau, added that "the effects of plant life must also be taken into consideration."

William von Arx, from Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution stressed that "the balance depends on the buffer capacity of the seawater," and noted that "there is a significant amount of carbon dioxide locked up in the plankton cycle."

And much more. Worth the read. Regardless which side of the debate you are on.

The conference referenced above was in 1955. Al Gore is said to have been in attendance. He was seven years old at the time.