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Thursday, April 11, 2013

Job Watch: Four-Week Moving Average Increased By 3,000 to 358,000

About that incredibly great jobs report. I hope folks don't get too far ahead of themselves.

One has to read deep into the article to see that things may not be as rosy as the headline suggests: see if you can find what I am referring to in the note below, posted elsewhere:
Jobless claims plummet -- down 42,000 to 346,000; largest weekly drop since mid-November. Interestingly enough the numbers for March 30 were revised upward, making them worse than originally reported -- California's numbers had been estimated. Economists forecast a drop to 365,000, which was reasonable. It will be interesting to see what the revised numbers show next week. The numbers are seasonally adjusted which leaves room for all kinds of shenanigans, and, in fact, Reuters reported that the floating Easter holiday and spring breaks pose challenges for the "so-called" seasonal factor. The four-week moving average increased to 358,000.  The four-week average is a better measure of labor market trends.
Yes, I put it in bold to make it easier to spot. Last week's very, very, very bad numbers were actually worse; and, the four-week average which Reuters says is a better measure of labor market trends actually increased by another 3,000.

But that was buried deep in the linked article.

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