Why Do I Even Bother, Part II: Unemployment Rises; Unemployment Benefits Surge; GDP Contracts First Time Since 2009 -- Analysis: Economy's Recovery On Track

 Updates

February 28, 2013: the government revises GDP data twice after the initial report. The first revision shows that the economy grew by 0.1% in 4Q12 -- and thus DID NOT contract as originally reported:

The U.S. economy grew in the fourth quarter - but just barely - instead of contracting for the first time in three and a half years, the Commerce Department said Thursday. The U.S. expanded at a 0.1% annual rate in the last three months of 2012, better than the initially reported 0.1% drop but well below the third quarter's 3.1% pace. Stronger residential construction and an improvement in net exports pushed growth into positive territory. A third and final report will come out next month.

Later, 12:43 pm: I see Drudge noted the same thing I noted earlier. He has now added this heading to his page regarding the new unemployment figures:

ASSOCIATED PRESS: 'mostly encouraging'...

Later, 10:41: just a hunch. Currently, the US Department of Labor uses "age 16" as the age when folks enter the job market. As we all know, ObamaCare established an official workweek at 29 hours = full-time employee. ObamaCare also extended health care insurance for the family for children up to age 26 years of age. My hunch is that the US Department of Labor is mulling changing its definition of when folks enter the labor market. By moving the age to 26 years of age the administration can make the number of folks NOT in the labor market look much better. 

Later, 10:23 pm: a reader was nice enough to confirm that nearly 90 million Americans are no longer in the labor force. This is another source, from last September:

Headline: Record 88,921,000 Americans ‘Not in Labor Force’—119,000 Fewer Employed in August Than July

Story: The number of Americans whom the U.S. Department of Labor counted as “not in the civilian labor force” in August hit a record high of 88,921,000.

The Labor Department counts a person as not in the civilian labor force if they are at least 16 years old, are not in the military or an institution such as a prison, mental hospital or nursing home, and have not actively looked for a job in the last four weeks.

The department counts a person as in “the civilian labor force” if they are at least 16, are not in the military or an institution such as a prison, mental hospital or nursing home, and either do have a job or have actively looked for one in the last four weeks.

Original Post 

This is the teaser for this story at Yahoo!News, cut and paste, no changes:

The U.S. added 157,000 jobs in January and the unemployment rate edged up to 7.9%, the latest data supporting views the economy's sluggish recovery was on track despite a surprise contraction in the final three months of 2012.

Remember: the magic number is 200,000

So, here we have this teaser at Yahoo!News:

The U.S. added 157,000 jobs in January and the unemployment rate edged up to 7.9%, the latest data supporting views the economy's sluggish recovery was on track despite a surprise contraction in the final three months of 2012.

The data points I see:

• 157,000 is less than the magic number of 200,000 
• the unemployment rate goes up
• reporter's conclusion: economy's sluggish recovery is ON TRACK DESPITE A SURPRISE CONTRACTION

I can't make this stuff up.

The unemployment number would have been worse, but fortunately for the president's Jobs Council, 169,000 folks left the job market, no longer looking for work; up significantly from last month; see below.

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Other stories relevant to the discussion

Massive revisions in the numbers: the numbers of new jobs added in November and December were revised upward -- some very good news, indeed.

Another 170,000 quit looking for jobs:

The number of Americans not in the labor force grew by 169,000 in January, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ latest jobs report.

BLS labels people who are unemployed and no longer looking for work as “not in the labor force,” including people who have retired on schedule, taken early retirement, or simply given up looking for work. There were 89 million of them last month.

 8.5 million folks left the labor force in the President's first term;

Lost in these headline numbers was another rise in the number of people not in the labor force.

This number now stands at a staggering 89 million, up from 80.5 million when President Obama took office.

This means that there are currently 8.5 million more Americans not in the labor force than just four years ago.