Job Watch

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NOTE: see next note. I had planned to discontinue this page now that the election was over. However, with the impending ObamaCliff in play, it will be interesting to see how it impacts jobs, so for now, the page continues.


See also: "Doomsday: The US Worker"
Also, check out daily job cuts
Calculators and the "new normal"

NUMBERS TO WATCH: The Magic Numbers

First time claims, unemployment benefits: 400,000 (> 400,000: economic stagnation)

New jobs: 200,000 (however, now I see that the goal posts have been moved to 120,000) --  

Economists estimate the labor market needs to create about 125,000 jobs a month to keep the unemployment rate steady, though estimates vary -- Reuters. 

I will stick with 200,000 -- it's a nicer, "rounder" number to remember.

NEWS

November 7, 2013: first time apps drop 9,000 to 335,000, which means the previous week must have been revised to 344,000, revised up from 339,000. 

October 30, 2013: no improvement; first time apps drop less than expected but back to 339,000; four-week average actually increases by 8,000, back up to 356,250; computer technology being blamed for poor numbers. Okay.

October 29, 2013: another "stellar" ObamaNation jobs report; the average has now dropped below 150,000 new jobs/month. Fifth year into the "recovery" -- absolutely atrocious. Analyst: "Any further weakening would signal rising unemployment. The weaker job growth is evident across most industries and company sizes."

October 24, 2013: first time claims, worse than expected. Four-week average rose.

October 22, 2013: the jobs report is "significantly worse than expected."

October 10, 2013: The second nominee for the 2013 Geico Rock Award goes to US Labor Department analysts who grossly underestimated the number of initial jobless claims. 

September 6, 2013: A watershed report; mainstream media finally gets it -- a double whammy -- unemployment drops to 7.3% but there is no headline. Why? The unemployment rate dropped because folks are dropping out of the labor force; they have given up looking for work. But this is the real thud that dropped on Wall Street today: the July numbers were revised downward. Instead of a mediocre 162,000 new jobs (praised b analysts last month) were revised down to a horrible, horrible 104,000. That is incredible.


September 5, 2013: last week's numbers revised upwards by 1,000; this week's numbers estimated for three states; drops 9,000 to 323,000 (analysts expected 330,000); 4-week moving average to 328,500, down 3,000. My hunch is that the numbers will be revised upwards by at least 3,000 a week from now when the official numbers come in.

August 29, 2013: down 6,000 to 331,000 (previous week revised upward by 1,000); four-week moving average ticks up 750 to 331,250. 

August 22, 2013: last week everyone got excited when the number dropped 15,000! Today's report: back up 13,000. Back to 336,000. Now, let's do a bit of math: 336,000 - 13,000 = 323,000. So, last week's number of 320,000 must have been revised upward by 3,000 to 323,000 (which Reuters conveniently overlooked). So, last week's "15,000" drop was actually a 12,000 drop, which did not offset this week's jump. Four-week moving average: 330,500.

August 19, 2013: incredibly bad report; unemployment rates rises in 28 states; improves in only 8 stages by in six of those states, by only 0.1 percent.

August 15, 2013: lowest number in six years; down 15,000!  320,000. Four-week moving average down to 332,000. It appears that last week's number must have been revised UP 2,000.

August 8, 2013: initial claims rise by 5,000 to 333,000; Reuters says this points a healing economy.

August 2, 2013: horrific hiring numbers for July. Non-farm "new" jobs: 162,000; well below forecasts of 184,000. On top of that, numbers for May AND June were revised down.

August 1, 2013: highly, highly suspect; analysts miss by biggest margin ever; miss by 20,000. Claims drop "unexpectedly" to lowest level in almost five (5) years. Claims: 326,000. Four-week moving average: 341, 250.

July 25, 2013: bad news -- claims jump 7,000; last week's number is revised upward. This week's number: 343,000. I guess it's not really bad news; it's simply the same ol' thing. Weekly reports are no longer news; they are simply "weekly reports." No surprises between now and 2016.

July 18, 2013: huge drop; surprised analysts; down 24,000 to 334,000; 4-week average dropped 5,250.

July 11, 2013: spin continues; claims up a staggering 16,000 to a seasonally adjusted 360,000; Reuters economy still on track; the 4-week average rose to 351,750.

July 8, 2013: quick! who is the #1 employer in the US? Wal-Mart. Now, is #2? Kelly Services: a temporary staffing agency.


July 5, 2013: another disappointing report; unemployment does not budge; remains at 7.6%; all "new" hiring was for temporary/part-time help; full-time hiring actually decreased; largest growth sector: bartenders and fast-food restaurants.

June 27, 2013: last week's numbers revised upward by another 1,000. This week, modest decline of 9,000 to 346,00. Four-week moving average drops to 345,750.

June 19, 2013: surges past analysts' expectations; rises 18,000 to 354,000. Four-week average jumps to 348,250, just 1,750 below the magic number according to Reuters.

June 13, 2013: falls 12,000 to 334,000. Four-week moving average decreases to 345,250, but total number on benefits actually increases. 

June 7, 2013: unemployment edges up to 7.6%. Average monthly new jobs last autumn: 235,000. Today's number: 175,000.

June 6, 2013: Jobless claims drop to 346,000; analysts had predicted a slightly bigger decrease. Previous week's report was ... drum roll ... revised upward, from 354,000 to 357,000. Actually not bad in the big scheme of things (the revision, that is).

June 5, 2013: job growth has slowed; 135,000 new jobs added; analysts forecast 165,000. Horrible. 

May 30, 2013: increased by 10,000 to 354,000. Previous week's number revised upward by 4,000. Four-week moving average: 347,250. Essentially no change throughout the entire recovery, but Reuters continues to see silver linings in the dark clouds. I don't see them.

May 23, 2013: decreased by 23,000 to 340,000. Previous week's number revised upward to 363,000. Moving average, 339,500.

May 17, 2013: the AP is reporting.

Nevada had the highest unemployment rate last month, at 9.6 percent. But it also had the biggest decline of any state over the past year, falling from 10.7 percent. Part of that decline is because many people have given up on their job hunts. But the state has also gained 22,700 jobs in the last 12 months.

North Dakota reported the nation's lowest unemployment rate, at 3.3 percent. The state has benefited from an oil and gas drilling boom.

May 16, 2013: one of the worst reports ever. Jumps 32,000 to 360,000, highest level in 6 weeks. Worse, it caught everyone by a surprise; huge surprise. Four-week moving average jumped to 338,000. It was also interesting to see that the previous four-week average was quietly raised to 339,250 (previously stated to be 336,750). This is one of the worse reports seen in quite some time, even though the headline only suggests six weeks.

May 9, 2013: though the headline says the jobless claims are at a near 5 1/2 year low, in fact, the numbers today are pretty much a wash. Last week's numbers were revised up 3,000, and this week's numbers dropped 4,000, to 323,000, a whole 1,000 less than last week.  The four-week moving average for new claims dropped 6,250 to 336,750 - the lowest level since November 2007.

May 2, 2013: jobless claims drop 18,000 to 324,000, a five-year low. Last week's claims were revised upward to 342,000 (an increase of 3,000). Four-week moving average dropped 16,000 to 342,250. That's incredible. Hopefully these numbers hold up next week, without revisions.

April 25, 2013: jobless claims drop 16,000 to 339,000 (forecast: 350,000). Last week's figures were revised upward to 355,000, higher than the forecast for last week.  Four-week moving average dropped 4,500 to 357,500. Same ol', same ol'. Continuing claims: 3.0 million vs 3.093 million last week.

April 18, 2013: jobless claims rise to 352,000 (forecast: 350,000). California sends in estimate, so next week's "revised" number will probably be even higher; four-week moving average also increases to 361,250 from 358,500.

April 11, 2013: jobless claims plummet -- down 42,000 to 346,000; largest weekly drop since mid-November. Interestingly enough the numbers for March 30 were revised upward, making them worse than originally reported -- again, California's numbers were estimated. Economists forecast a drop to 365,000, which was reasonable. It will be interesting to see what the revised numbers show next week. The numbers are seasonally adjusted which leaves room for all kinds of shenanigans, and, in fact, Reuters reported that the floating Easter holiday and spring breaks pose challenges for the "so-called" seasonal factor. The four-week moving average increased to 358,000.  The four-week average is a better measure of labor market trends.
 
April 5, 2013: March jobs number is horrendous. By any standard. Need to add 200,000 jobs/month to make headway. Some tried moving the goalposts to 120,000. Whisper numbers suggested the worse, at 150,000. So, the number, please ... drum roll .... 88,000. Labor force at level not seen since President Jimmy Carter's year of the Iranian hostage crisis, 1979. Labor force at 63%. 

April 4, 2013: horrendous. Economists had predicted a fall to 350,000. Instead spikes an incredible 28,000 to 385,000, the highest in four months. It will likely be revised upward next week when the estimated California numbers are in. The four-week moving average spiked 11,250 to 354,250.

March 28, 2013: weekly jobs report; incredible spin; the number rose to 357,000; previous week's number revised upward an astonishing 5,000; initial claims rose 16,000;

March 26, 2013: Wow, I've been saying this for two years, maybe longer: the great recession has been followed by the grand illusion; don't be fooled by the latest jobs numbers. The unemployment situation in the US is still dire.It's a very long article, but the statistics are daunting.

March 21, 2013: previous week's numbers revised upwards; total receiving benefits rose; 336,000 this week;

March 7, 2013: unexpectedly falls 7,000 to 340,000 (previous report revised upward); four-week moving average, 348,750

February 28, 2013: falls 22,000 to 344,000; analysts had expected number to fall only to 360,000 from 360,000 last week. Four-week moving average: 355,00.

February 21, 2013: 362,000. Rises significantly more than expected. Up 20,000. Expected: 355,000. Four-week moving average also increases to 360,750.

February 14, 2013: 341,000. Drops more than expected. Analysts had expected 360,000. Very interesting. Drop was 27,000.

February 7, 2013: 366,000. Last week's number was revised upward from 368,000 to 371,000.

February 1, 2013: unemployment rate rises slightly, back to 7.9%.

January 31, 2013: Analysts confused again! The number surges 38,000 --- now back up to 368,000. Analysts had expected the number to increase ONLY to 350,000. Earlier this month, "371,000," was the highest number in five years.

January 24, 2013: surprising report; caught analysts off-guard; had expected an increase to 360,000. In fact, down 5,000 to 330,000, the lowest in five years. Perhaps last week's report of a stggering drop of 37,000 was not a one-off. The four-week average: 351,750. Again, the numbers were estimated for several states, including California.

January 17, 2013: down to 335,000; lowest in five years; drops a staggering 37,000 in one week. Four-week moving average: 359,250.

January 15, 2013: from whitehousedossier.com:

Long term unemployment under President Obama is at the highest level since at least the end of World War II, threatening to create a permanent underclass of workers who will find it difficult or impossible to obtain jobs in the future. What’s more, Obama’s insistence on repeatedly extending long term unemployment benefits may be fueling the unemployment problem.

January 10, 2013: no estimates today; the "real" data. First time claims benefits (unemployment) jumped to the highest number in five weeks (371,000) and the four-week moving average jumped significantly to 365,750, a "gain" of almost 7,000.  Comment: that was the report. But yet the numbers/analysis don't quite match -- look at last couple of weeks. The number was 372,000 last week -- which means this week's number 371,000 is not the highest in five weeks (though, perhaps the revised numbers were different -- that 371,000 was an estimate). Also, the four-week moving average, though it showed a jump, is exactly the same as it was two weeks ago.

January 3, 2013: the numbers are bogus, again; nine states sent in estimates. The government says unemployment, first time-claims benefits jumped 10,000 to 372,000 this past week. After all is said and done, the unemployment rate went up and was revised upward the month before. After that, it's all spin.
 
December 27, 2012: the numbers are bogus, all estimates due to government shut down for holiday -- 350,000 last week; 365,750 four-week moving average.

December 20, 2012: huge jump; now up to 361,000 ---  most concerning: there was no explanation.

December 13, 2012: huge drop; now down to 343,000, lowest level in .... two months. The four-week moving average: 381,500.

December 7, 2012: Rounding, 75% of new jobs created in past five months were government jobs.

December 6, 2012: weekly -- 370,000; four-week moving average: 408,000. Gallup, unadjusted, unemployment takes huge jump; back to 8.3%; government figures: only 7.7%. Non-farm jobs added: 151,000. Remember: the magic number is 200,000.