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Thursday, December 17, 2009

Disclaimer

Summary
  • this is not an investment site
  • "million dollar way" has nothing to do with investing; it comes from the metonym for US 2 & 85 leading north out of Williston where I grew up; the "million dollar way" was my "way out of Williston" literally, figuratively, and metaphorically
  • the writer has no formal training and no experience in the oil and gas industry
  • when the writer first started blogging, he knew nothing about horizontal drilling; he still knows very little
  • the writer is inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken
  • the writer is inappropriately exuberant about investment opportunities for those with long horizons, but has no formal training and/or education in investing
  • this is a blog; it is difficult to separate fact from opinion on this blog and most other blogs
  • all information on the Bakken is dynamic; information about the Bakken may change even as the post is being posted
  • all information on the Bakken is posted in "good faith"
  • non-Bakken information is generally tongue-in-cheek; the reader should presume such information is opinion
  • posts on global warming and ObamaCare are there to help put the Bakken into perspective
  • posts regarding the stock market and investing are there to help make sense of the Bakken; if one wants to better understand the Bakken, follow the money
  • posts on Apple (AAPL) are there because I grew up with Apple computers and am fascinated with the business model; I used to say that I would never own shares of AAPL stock; that is no longer true
  • politically the writer is a social conservative, a fan of Ronald Reagan; not a Republican 
  • does not watch television as a rule, so has no clue what talking heads are talking about on a real-time basis
  • the writer has a very, very thin skin and never could have made it as a businessman in the real world
  • the writer has a very, very thin skin and never could have survived the oil and gas industry
  • the blog is nothing more than the idle comments I would have with friends at a local cafeteria in Williston
  • the blog is full of typographical and factual errors; if something looks wrong, it probably is
  • the blog is "for my use only" but folks are free to read it
  • any photos folks send to me I assume are in the public domain unless otherwise stated by the sender
  • the webmaster works very hard at keeping anonymous those readers who wish to remain anonymous but may not always succeed
  • when it comes to the standard investment disclaimer, I use the same disclaimer that folks use at SeekingAlpha
Or more formally, for those who are more comfortable with formal disclaimers:
This site is for informational purposes only. The contents herein have been prepared solely for informational purposes based upon information generally available to the public from sources believed to be reliable. Although we believe that the information provided herein is reliable, we have not verified this information and we do not guarantee its accuracy, completeness, timeliness or availability. Information in this presentation is subject to change without notice.
The Million Dollar Way is not an investment adviser. Neither the site nor the webmaster is an investment adviser and neither are providing any investment advice. We make no representation regarding the advisability of investing "in the Bakken,"  in any investment fund, or in any other investment vehicle. Nothing herein should be viewed as a recommendation to purchase, hold, or sell any securities or to make any investment decision.
A reader suggests this disclaimer which is fine with me:
*Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Any resemblance to real persons, living or dead is purely coincidental. Void where prohibited. Some assembly required. No other warranty expressed or implied. Do not attend while operating a motor vehicle or heavy equipment. May be too intense for some viewers. For recreational use only. Do not disturb. All models over 18 years of age. No user-serviceable parts inside. Subject to change without notice. Please remain seated until the ride has come to a complete stop. For off-road use only. As seen on TV. Article is provided "as is" without any warranties. All rights reserved. Allow six to eight weeks for delivery. Any resemblance to real persons, living or dead, is purely coincidental. Avoid contact with eyes and skin and avoid inhaling fumes. Avoid extreme temperatures and store in a cool dry place. Breaking seal (or sea lion) constitutes acceptance of agreement. Call toll free before digging. Slippery when wet. For office use only. No manatees, small fur-bearing animals or trees were harmed in the production of this email. Stiff penalties for early withdrawal. Keep cool; process promptly. Not responsible for direct, indirect, incidental or consequential damages resulting from any defect, error or failure to perform. The material on this page may be offensive and frightening to small children. Studies have shown viewing this page causes cancer in laboratory rats. Do not fold, spindle or mutilate. If this were an actual emergency, this broadcast would be followed by official information and instructions. Keep your hands to yourself. Do not point. Please do not feed the animals. Reproduction strictly prohibited. No anchovies unless otherwise specified. Objects in mirror may be closer than they appear. Do not run with scissors.
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The Narrative

This is not an investment site. Do not make any investment or financial decisions based on anything you read here. Posts on the Bakken are believed to be accurate at the time of the original post, but may not remain accurate over time. The Bakken is dynamic; things change. I do not go back and change original posts as a standard operating procedure, except to update production numbers. All entries on non-Bakken subjects are for entertainment purposes or to help put the Bakken into perspective. Never rely on anything I post, on Bakken or non-Bakken subjects. If it's important to you, go to the original source which is almost always linked. It is hard to separate fact from commentary on my blog. It's a "blog" -- a diary of sorts to help me understand the Bakken. It is not to be used by anyone else. However, I make it available without subscription or a password if others want to read it. There is nothing on the site that can't be found at much more reliable sources. I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken. I love Big Oil. And Medium Oil. And Small Oil. And WD-40.

NOTE: on/about April 10, 2014, my Yahoo e-mail account finally gave up the ghost. Don't bother posting comments or sending me e-mail. I plan to continue the blog but am gradually withdrawing from social media. 

This is not an investment site. Do not make any investment decisions based on what you read at this site. Up until March 29, 2013, I used to answer personal e-mail with questions about investments and about my thoughts on specific wells. I never provided any investment advice. However, effective March 29, 2013, I will no longer respond to any personal e-mail regarding investments. There are many, many reasons. I may provide a quick e-mail reply suggesting the writer look at the welcome/disclaimer.

 In addition, effective March 29, 2013, I will minimize my replies to folks requesting specific information about wells in the Bakken. I take those requests seriously, and have often done quite a bit of research before providing a pretty comprehensive (and lengthy) answer. It is interesting that in return, I have seldom received a reply suggesting the writer got my answer, much less a "thank you." I'm getting tired of providing so much information free of charge and not getting a "thank you" in return. (Wow, that sounds pretty harsh; I must have been in a bad mood when I wrote that. What really bothers me is I never know if my information helped if I don't get any feedback.)

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This is a blog, short for "web log," or diary.  It was started for my use only since HTML provided a great way to track the Bakken boom. I decided to open it to the public for various reasons which I discuss below.  

I will make mistakes, and I have made some doozies. Most of the mistakes could have been avoided had I posted more slowly, and had the posts been reviewed by an expert in the oil and gas industry. If something looks wrong, it probably is. If a mistake is brought to my attention, I will address it immediately. If I ever get the feeling that my posts on the Bakken are doing more harm than good, I will bring down the site. It is not my intention to mislead anyone on the Bakken. 

Again, this is a "web log," often being posted on the run, open to others for reasons discussed elsewhere. 

Photos: Unless it is explicitly stated that a photo or an item sent to me is not copyrighted, I assume it is okay to post it. I allow anyone to use anything on my post without permission including photos, unless there is a note that specifically states someone has requested the photograph not be disseminated. None of my own notes are copyrighted. Whether or not you attribute something you use from my site is up to you.

 Disclaimer: this site is not intended to be used for making investment decisions. I am an amateur with regard to the oil industry. I have simply enjoyed following the Bakken and am using the site to better educate myself. If others want to read it, that's fine. I invest in companies doing business in the Bakken, but I work very hard at remaining neutral in my posting when it comes to companies I may invest in. I am not a professional investor: I invest only for my own personal portfolio. It is often hard to separate fact from opinion when writing / reading a blog, so if you question something that might be incorrect or an opinion, you should verify it elsewhere.  

 I do not intentionally post incorrect information. I frequently make typographical errors; in some cases they can be significant errors. If alerted to the errors, I will correct them as soon as possible. 

Bottom line: make no investment decision(s) based on this blog.

Overview of the Bakken

CNBC Video


From the 2013 Rolfstad presentation. This graphic does not include the 2010 USGS survey (which doubled the Bakken) nor the CLR estimate of almost one trillion bbls OOIP.



Original Post

WSJ: The Bakken Boom, February 26, 2010.
------> A basic analysis of the Bakken boom, February, 2010. <------
Is the Bakken overhyped?
Look at the IPs of the wells four years into the development of the Bakken, and note the cumulative oil produced for some of these wells on the "wells to watch" page.
The Bakken Rocks: The History of the Development of the Bakken in North Dakota
How and Where The Sweet Spot of the Bakken Was Formed, October, 2010.
Video of drilling and fracturing, March 2010.
Running With Oil, August, 2010.
Bakken Used as Model Around the World, October, 2010.

Really cool: in-flight magazine Delta Sky has a special issue on North Dakota. When you get to the "magazine" use the arrows at the top of the site to "turn" the pages." Posted, October, 2010.

Background
 
The purpose of this site started out as being educational. Over time it has added a fair amount of information about investing in the Bakken. It is almost impossible to discuss the Bakken without acknowledging the role that capitalism plays. Having said that, the site is an attempt to provide an overview of "the Bakken" and to direct folks to the news stories coming out of the North Dakota oil industry. It is very, very superficial in scope. I probably understand about 1 percent of all that goes on in the industry (if that much). I have a poor memory and often make simple mistakes, but will correct them when I become aware of them. I find myself making more typographical errors as the years go by.

I grew up in Williston, in the heart of the Williston Oil Basin (WOB) and have followed the oil industry my entire life, in a very general way. I invest in publicly traded companies through the stock market, but my investments in WOB are trivial compared to my overall investment portfolio. I own no mineral rights, and have no inside information regarding the WOB. I do talk with people who live there and occasionally receive information second- and third-hand. I do not subscribe to any newsletters or the North Dakota Industrial Commission website tools, although I may do that sometime in the future (subscriptions are relatively inexpensive).

I enjoy following the activity in the WOB, but am not sure that investing in the oil companies in the WOB is the best way to go; there are many other opportunities in the stock market that might be better. At the current time, of the Williston Oil Basin-related companies, I am invested in the following: MDU, BR (COP), CLR, NOG, ENB, EEP, BNI, SLB. I trade in and out of these companies with others in the WOB. I would never recommend any companies because everyone's investment styles are different. I am often accused of being too exuberant about the WOB, and I admit it. I find the oil activity in North Dakota very interesting. It's easy to be negative about things in life, so I tend to over-compensate in some areas by being too optimistic when it comes to the oil industry.

I am definitely a novice at all this, so if something I say doesn't seem correct, it may not be. There are many ways on the web to cross-check "facts."

The largest continuous oil reservoir in the continental United States.

Top Story of the Year 2012

North Dakota tops the rankings in MoneyRates.com’s list of 10 States Where Youth Rules, a study that compared a number of key factors across U.S. states to determine which ones offer the best conditions for young adults. The nine economic and lifestyle factors used in determining the rankings include: employment for young people, insurance costs for young drivers, college costs, affordability of housing, youth-oriented retailing, nightlife, healthfulness, the state’s youthfulness and housing availability.

The 10 best states for young adults, as determined by MoneyRates.com, include:
1. North Dakota
2. South Dakota
3. Iowa
4. Montana
5. Nebraska
6. Delaware
7. Vermont
8. Alaska
9. Utah
10. New Hampshire
North Dakota earned the top spot largely on the strength of its economic conditions, including a 3.3 percent unemployment rate for 20 to 24-year-olds. But it also scored well in a number of social measures, including having the highest concentration of 18 to 24-year-olds of any state in the union.
The highest concentration of 20- to 24-year-olds? They're all rough necks, truck drivers, oil field workers.

Why The Skeptics Were Wrong

I am posting the following story from Reuters/Rigzone in its entirety in case the source archives the story at some point in the future. 
LONDON, Oct 16 (Reuters) - North Dakota's rapidly rising oil output continues to defy the sceptics, who have predicted that production would stop growing as declining output from existing wells offsets extra production from new drilling. Oil production soared to 911,000 barrels per day in August, up more than 200,000 bpd compared with the same month last year, the state's Department of Mineral Resources (DMR) said this week.
Production is on course to hit 1 million bpd by the end of the year or early 2014, according to the DMR. By the end of August, 9,452 wells were in production. But another 450 had been drilled and were awaiting fracturing and completion. Completions are running at about 1.5 times the threshold needed to maintain production, the DMR wrote in its monthly statement, which implies output will continue rising in the next few months as crews work through the backlog.
Shale sceptics have been confidently predicting since at least 2010, when output was below 300,000 bpd, that production would peak. Only the DMR has struck a defiant and lonely optimistic note. In 2012 DMR projected output would plateau somewhere between 700,000 and 1.2 million bpd between 2015 and 2025, based on a total of up to 40,000 wells in the thermally mature part of the shale play. 
Many out-of-state analysts, including leading energy consultancies, criticised those projections as overly positive. Now they appear conservative. So why did the sceptics get it so wrong?

Outrunning the Red Queen

Sceptics based their argument on the unusually rapid output decline from wells bored into shale formations compared with more conventional oil fields.
More and more holes would have to be drilled just to offset dwindling production from the existing stock of wells. More wells would require more drilling rigs and fracturing crews, which could not be increased indefinitely.
Eventually, production would reach an equilibrium based on some maximum feasible number of drilling rigs and crews.
"Yearly output must inevitably decline because the maintenance of a given output each year necessitates the drilling of an increasing number of wells," U.S. government geologist Carl Beal wrote in 1919, during an earlier panic about peaking domestic oil production.
More recently, The Oil Drum blog likened shale production to the Red Queen's Race in Lewis Carroll's book "Through the Looking-Glass."
"Here, you see, it takes all the running you can do, to keep in the same place," the Red Queen told Alice. "If you want to get somewhere else, you must run twice as fast."

Shale sceptics pointed to the tremendous variability in output from wells drilled into the most productive core areas of the Bakken compared with the less-prodigious outlying areas.
The core would be fully exploited quite quickly, they suggested, leaving only the less productive periphery, necessitating drilling even more wells with lower output.

Why Sceptics Were Wrong

In practice, the shale sceptics have proved wrong on every point, revealing a fundamental lack of understanding about the geology, economics and technology of shale production.
With more experience of horizontal drilling and fracturing and more knowledge about the play, drilling and pumping crews have been able to drill deeper wells and longer laterals, reaching total depth more quickly and applying more fracturing treatments per well as well as learning to target only the most productive parts of the formation.
"In 2007, the average treatment number, or stage count, in Bakken wells was three. By the end of 2011, that number was nearly 30, and some wells had more than 40 stages in a single lateral," according to oilfield-services specialist Schlumberger. ("Multistage Stimulation in Liquid-Rich Unconventional Formations" 2013)
Rather than increasing relentlessly, the number of drilling rigs operating in the Bakken has fallen from over 200 in early 2012 to just over 180 in October 2013.
Bakken accounts for just 10 percent of the rigs drilling for oil and gas in the United States, according to basin-by-basin data published by another oilfield services company, Baker Hughes. Rising Bakken output is not putting pressure on the domestic rig market. Rig rates remain soft.

More output with fewer rigs is a classic application of the learning curve effect, something shale sceptics overlooked.
Sceptics also drew the wrong conclusions about high decline rates. All oil and gas wells exhibit a sharp drop in output after the initial high rate of production in the first few months, as the natural pressure in the oil or gas field drops.
In general, the higher the initial output, the faster it will subsequently decline. Rapid decline rates are associated with unusually productive wells. Rapid declines also tend to be associated with high ultimate production over the lifetime of the well, as Beal demonstrated nearly a century ago. ("Decline and ultimate production of oil wells" 1919)
Sceptics often imply rapid decline rates are an unattractive feature of shale wells, ignoring the fact that production is declining from an unusually high initial rate.
The big upfront yield is what makes shale wells so economically attractive, resulting in a fast payback on investment and high rates of return. While sceptics worry about how much wells will be producing after 10 or 15 years, producers are more interested in how much they will produce within the first year or two.
The rates of return on shale wells are phenomenal. Continental Resources, the leading Bakken oil producer, claims it can achieve a 20 to 25 percent rate of return on shale wells even at oil prices as low as $60 per barrel, rising to 50 to 65 percent returns when oil prices are $100.

Manufacturing Oil And Gas

It is easy to overstate differences between conventional and unconventional production. Environmentalists hostile to shale oil and gas production highlight fears about groundwater contamination, seismicity, fugitive methane emissions and the chemicals used in fracking, without realising the same issues apply to oil and gas produced from conventional fields as well.

How many realise that many conventional wells are also fracked, sometimes with acid rather than water, or that wells were being fractured in the 1950s and 1960s with diesel fuel and napalm? In many ways, the differences between conventional and unconventional production are matters of degree rather than kind.
But in one respect, the difference is profound and often underappreciated. Conventional producers focus on finding highly concentrated accumulations of oil and gas and drilling a small number of highly productive holes. The process is akin to finding a needle in a haystack. It requires enormous investment in seismic and other surveys to try to improve the odds of drilling a successful hole, "de-risking" the process.
Producing shale oil and gas is much more like a manufacturing process. While some parts of the play will be more productive than others, the outcomes are far more predictable and less variable. The focus is on improving returns by reducing costs. Standardisation, assembly line techniques, reducing drilling and fracking time, and cutting the number of skilled workers needed while boosting the number of wells drilled and stages fracked lie at the heart of the business. The differences between shale and conventional oil and gas plays help explain why shale specialists such as Continental and oilfield services companies such as Schlumberger, Halliburton and Baker Hughes have big winners in the Bakken and other shales, while oil majors such as Shell have struggled.
The manufacturing approach needed to succeed in shale is fundamentally different from the advanced engineering needed in deepwater exploration and on other complex megaprojects. Shale's doubters failed to understand these differences. As a result, they treated shale plays as just another oilfield, rather than understanding the distinctive characteristics of the industry. 
The Blog
(Nothing below has changed)

The "old" Million Dollar Way was very eclectic: literature, music, "the Bakken," energy in general, and personal musings. Ninety-nine percent of visitors to the site visited only Bakken-related sites, and even then, only one or two specific pages. So, this site will, at least for the time being, concentrate on "the Bakken," more correctly the North Dakota oil industry. I have an emotional interest in "the Bakken." I wear my heart on my sleeve when it comes to "the Bakken." This is where I grew up. I have no background or connection with the oil industry. I own no mineral rights.

I am an investor, but my investments in "the Bakken" are trivial compared to my overall investments. I am more emotionally attached to "the Bakken" than interested in investments. I have no inside information. I do not subscribe to any premium services regarding "the Bakken." I no longer live in North Dakota, but I visit at least once a year and see first-hand what is going on. My information comes primarily from the NDIC website and the internet in general.

Occasionally I will get input third-hand or fourth-hand from someone I know still living in the Williston area. (Williston, North Dakota, USA, is at the center of the Williston Oil Basin, home of "the Bakken.") Bottom line: I'm pretty much a novice at all this. I know I will make many mistakes on this website but will correct them when brought to my attention.

Do not use my site to make investment decisions, although it may be one of several data points to lead you in certain directions. Much of what I write can look factual, when in fact it is opinion or my general understanding of the issue. Over time, I assume this site will evolve, based on reader feedback. As expected, it was hard not to have op-ed pieces, and some have already been added.

Background regarding the name of the blog: The friends of the "old" Million Dollar Way know that the name of the site has nothing to do with money -- at least not directly in terms of me or investing. When I was growing up, the road leading out of Williston was known as the "Million Dollar Way" because of the automobile dealerships and businesses related to the oil industry.

The "Million Dollar Way" was my road out of town to an exciting life. This "Million Dollar Way" site is a new road leading me to new destinations.

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For an overview of the Bakken, check out a WLL presentation
Analysis of the Bakken, 2006. "Bakken shale may prove to be productive."
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This blog seems to be optimized for Firefox/MacOS. I find errors in formatting when I check the blog on Internet Explorer browsers; perhaps they are older versions of Internet Explorer.

Updated: December 15, 2015 (not all items updated). 

Pageviews/Day

February 11, 2021: 12:00 midnight central time, 13,810,977 page views, exactly nine days since last update; 19,761 page views since the last tally; 19,761 / 9 = 2,196 page views / 24-hour day.

February 2, 2021, 11:00 p.m. Central Time, 13,791,216 pageviews; exactly 5.5 days since last update; 14,366 page views since the last tally; 14,366 / 5.5 = 2,612 pageviews/24-hour day;

January 28, 2021, 11:00 a.m. Central Time, 13,776,850 pageviews; one hour short of exactly fifteen days since last update; 61,666 page views since the last tally; 61,666 / 15 = 4,111 pageviews/24-hour day;

January 13, 2021, 12:00 noon Central Time, 13,715,184 pageviews; 72 hours since last update; 15,617 page views since the last tally; 15,617 / 3 = 5,206 pageviews/24-hour day;

January 10, 2021, 12:00 noon Central Time, 13,699,567, pageviews; 24 hours since last update; 5,253 page views since the last tally; 5,253 / 1 = 5,253 pageviews per day; much better than last report;

January 9, 2021, 12:00 noon Central Time, 13,694,314, pageviews; 8 days since last update; 40,383 page views since the last tally; 40,383 / 9 = 5,048 pageviews per day; much better than last report;

January 1, 2021, 12:00 noon Central Time, 13,653,931 pageviews; 46.75 days since last update; 150,684 page views since the last tally; 150,684 / 46.75 = 3,223 pageviews per day; much better than last report;

November 15, 2020, 7:51 p.m. Central Time, 13,503,247 pageviews; 62 days since the last update; 175,173 page views since the last tally; 175,173/62 = 2,825 pageviews per day; better than last report. 

September 4, 2020: 11:17 p.m. Central Time, 13,328,074 pageviews; 115.5 days since the last update; 305,316 page views since the last tally; 305,316/115.5 = 2,655 pageviews per day; at low end of "average." I think the record low is 2,465 pageviews/day, back in late 2019;

May 12, 2020: 9:37 a.m. Central Time, 13,022,758 pageviews, 41.5 days since the last update; 112,238 pageviews since the last tally: 112,238 / 41.5 = 2,704 pageviews/day. At low end of "average."

March 31, 2020: 8:19 p.m. Central Time, 12,910,520 pageviews, 15 days since the last update; 46,649 pageviews since the last tally: 46,649 pageviews / 15 days = 3,109 pageviews/day. Not bad, considering.

March 16, 2020: 1:00 a.m. Central Time, 12,863,871 pageviews, 36 days since the last update; pageviews since the last tally: 102,157 pageviews / 36 days = 2,838 pageviews/day. Not bad considering.

February 9, 2020: 9:40 p.m. Central Time, 12,761,714 pageviews, 43 days since the last update; pageviews since last tally: 130,589 pages = 3,037 pageviews/day. Okay. It's been a long time since we "cracked" 3,000 pageviews/day.

December 28, 2019: 4:49 p.m. Central Time, 12,631,125 pageviews, 76 days since the last update; pageviews since last tally: 187,349; divided by 76 days = 2,465 pageviews/day: which may be a record low, which is not surprising. Just look at the top stories for 2019 and not much was happening in the Bakken compared to earlier years.

October 13, 2019, 3:00 p.m. Central Time: 12,433,776 pageviews; 113.5 days since the last update; pageviews since last tally: 286,927; divided by 113.5 days = 2,528 pageviews/day; not quite a record low;

June 22, 2019, 10:30 p.m. Central Time: 12,146,849 pageviews = 62.5 days since last update = 2,677 pageviews/day.
.
April 21, 2019, 8:44 a.m. Central Time: 11,979,559 pageviews = 84.5 days since last update = 226,762 pageviewa since last update = 2,684 hits/day
 
January 26, 2019, 4:45 p.m. Central Time: 11,752,797 pageviews = 2,525 hits/day (all-time low)

August 8, 2018, 9:53 a.m. Central Time: 11,321,733 pageviews = 3,513 hits/day
 
April 5, 2018, 12:58 p.m. Central Time: 10,991,442 pageviews = 3,688 hits/day

April 3, 2018, 11:53 p.m. Central Time: 10,984,065 pageviews = 3,744 hits/day

April 2, 2018, 12:06 p.m. Central Time, 10,980,321 pageviews = 3,729 hits/day

December 14, 2017, 10:22 a.m Central Time, 10,573,799 pageviews, 278 days = 3,478 hits/day; first day with ads
 
March 11, 2017, 7:00 p.m. Central Time, 9,606,964 pageviews, 38 days = 3, 947 hits/day 

February 1, 2017, 7:00 p.m. Central Time, 9,456,965 pageviews; 8 days = 3,922 hits/day

January 24, 2017, 5:00 p.m. Central Time: 9,425,582 pageviews.

December 29, 2016, 12:30 p.m.: 9,336,868, 8 days = 3,406 hits/day; holiday break

December 21, 2016, 12:30 p.m.: 9,309,617, 2 days = 24 hours = 8943 / 2 days = 4,472 hits/day;

December 19, 2016, 12:30 p.m.: 9,300,674,  13 days, 1.5 hours = 313.5 hours; 184.92/hour = 4,438 / day (Monday with two weekends)
December 6, 2016, 11:00 a.m.: 9,242,703, one day: 5,272 hits / day (Monday-to-Tuesday)
December 5, 2016, 11:00 a.m.: 9,237,431; one day:  4,953 hits / day (Sunday-to-Monday)
December 4, 2016, 11:00 a.m.: 9,232,478; two days: 9,410 hits / 2 days = 4,705 hits / day (Friday/Saturday)
December 2, 2016, 11:00 a.m.: 9,223,068; 25 hours; 4,235 hits / 25 hours or 4,066 hits/day
December 1, 2016, 10:00 a.m.: 9,218,833; 48 hours; 3,651 hits/day
November 29, 2016, 11:00 a.m.: 9,211,530; exactly 24 hours; 3,907 hits / day
November 28, 2016, 11:00 a.m.: 9,207,623; 106 days; 318,735 hits / 106 days = 3,007 hits / day (with Bakken 2.0 I started noting that the number of hits was increasing)
August 14, 2016: 2:15 p.m. 8,888,888; 16.5 days; 47,744 hits / 16.5 days = 2,894 hits / day (which appears to be a record low)
July 29, 2016, 4:00 a.m.: 8,841,144; 124 days;  385,032 hits / 124 days = 3,105 hits / day
March 26, 2016, 3:00 p.m.: 8,456,112; 102 days; 316,691 hits / 102 days = 3,105 hits / day
December 15, 2015, 10:00 p.m.: 8,139,421; 81 days; 244,017 hits / 81 days = 3,013 hits / day
September 25, 2015, 11:30 p.m.: 7,895,404; 122 days; 391,912 hits / 122 days = 3,212 hits / day
May 26, 2015, 10:50 p.m.: 7,503,492; 42 days; 138,825 hits / 42 days = 3,305 hits / day
April 14, 2015, 10:20 p.m.: 7,364,667; 38 days; 3,607 / day
March 7, 2015, 10:40 p.m.: 7,227,613; 20 days; 3,570 / day
February 15, 2015, 11:50 p.m.: 7,156,204; 6 days; 3,797 / day
February 9, 2015, 11:50 p.m.: 7,133,420; 34 days; 3,924 / day
January 6, 2015, 11:50 p.m.: 7,000,000; 23 days: 4,283 / day
December 14, 2014, 9:40 p.m.; 6,901,501 / 26 days: 4,389 / day
November 18, 2014, 9:40 p.m.: 6,787,392 / 60 days: 3,755 / day
September 18, 2014, 6:40 p.m.: 6,562,034 /  114 days: ~ 3,750 /day
May 27, 2014, 5:30 p.m.: 6,134,532: ~ 3,414/day
May 20, 2014, 5:30 p.m.: 6,110,630: ~ 3,815/day
April 21, 2014, 5:30 pm: 6,000,000 +/- one or two (from January 26, about 3,858/day)
January 26, 2014, 7:36 pm: 5,672,024
April 30, 2013, 1:25 pm: 4,503,783 (~ 6,446/day)
April 1, 2013, 9:28 am: 4,316,824 (~ 6,820/day)
March 5, 2013, 8:26 pm: 4,139,487
February 14, 2013, 12:38 pm: 4,003,893
Overnight, February 13 - 14, 2013: 4 millionth visitor
Projected, 4 millionth visit -- February 14, 2013
February 7, 2013, 10:34 am: 3,951,795
February 5, 2013, 10:10 pm: 3,941,692
February 2, 2013, 6:40 pm: 3,917,397
January 13, 2013, midnight: 3,768,876
December 7, 2012, 9:00 pm: 3,539,177; ~ 5,890/day
December 7, 2012, 10:00 am: 3,535,852
December 6, 2012, 9:00 pm: 3,533, 287
December 5, 2012, 12:30 pm: 3,522,944
August 29, 2012, 8:00 pm: 3,003,324
July 29, 2012, 2:00 am: 2,824,722
May 19, 2012, 7:00 pm: 2,448, 351
April 25, 2012, 11:59 pm: 2,313,351
April 24, 2012, 8:00 pm: 2,305,724
April 22, 2012, 10:30 pm: 2,294,212
April 22, 2012, 10:00 am: 2,290,554
April 18, 2012, 9:00 pm: 2,272,860
April 18, 2012: 7:30 am: 2,268,233
April 17, 2012, 10:00 pm: 2,266,779
April 17, 2012, 9:00 am: 2,261,783
April 16, 2012, 10:00 pm: 2,259,499
April 15, 2012, 9:00 pm: 2,254,085
April 14, 2012, 10 pm: 2,248,705
April 14, 2012, 9:00 am: 2,245,945
April 13, 2012, 8:00 pm: 2,243,467
April 13, 2012, 6:30 am: 2,239,851
April 12, 2012, 10:00 pm: 2,238,427
April 12, 2012, 7:30 am:2,233,226
April 11, 2012: 9:00 pm: 2,231,315 -- 7,313 hits in one day
April 11, 2012, 10:30 am: 2,227,088
April 10, 2012, 8:30 pm: 2,224,002
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Sunday, December 13, 2009

Slawson Wells in Big Bend / Van Hook

Updates

August 2, 2010: Slawson now has seven (7) active rigs in North Dakota.

April 27, 2010: Slawson now has five (5) active rigs in North Dakota.


ORIGINAL POST (Permits and IPs Updated)

For those well acquainted with my craziness and irrational exuberance, you might get a kick out of this posting. In addition, it raises questions and I would love to hear from anyone who might have insight on what I'm seeing.

Bottom line: Slawson seems to be putting two wells on the same pad, with one lateral going north, and one lateral going south in the Big Bend / Van Hook oil fields. (Also, are they all "short laterals"?)

If you enjoy looking at the NDIC GIS map server and the NDIC active rigs page, this might interest you. This activity is all in the Big Bend and Van Hook oil fields, just south of New Town.

The wells with the following permit numbers are discussed below:
17504, Holst 1-33H, 1 sec, 825 boepd
17505, Wolf 1-4H, 1 sec, 309 boepd
17748, Fox 1-28H, 1 sec, 1,208, bopd -- Feb 9, 2010
17801, Jericho 1-5H, 1 sec, 750 boepd
17864, Jughead 1-26H (Thompson 1-35H), 1,255 bopd
18180, Stallion 1-1-12H, 2 sec, 2,735 boepd, 36 frac stages
18195, Cougar Federal 1-30H,1,264
18199, Zulu 1-21H, 290 bopd
18207, Machete 1-19H,1,215 bopd
18211, Minx 1-29H, 1 sec, 1,000 bopd, 34k in first 60 days
18220, Coyote 1-32H, 846, bodp, 40k in first 103 days
18239, Bazooka 1-20H, 876
18287, Skybolt 1-24H, 911
18331, Fed 1-34-35H-152-92, producing
18363, Howitzer 1-25H, 1,156
18364, Zephyr 1-36H, 1,637
18407, Ripper 1-22H, 2,369
18416, Wizard 1-35H, 849
NDIC reports that Slawson has only four active rigs, so the fact that sometimes I have more than four rigs on site in the list above (and below) I would assume is due to some rigs in process of moving from one site to another (and one well is a Questar well).

I noticed that Slawson was scheduled to start drilling Cougar Federal 1-30H in the Big Bend oil field, east of the river, inside the Fort Berthold Indian Reservation.  When I went to the map, I saw four rigs in the immediate area. Zooming in, this is what I found interesting:

Section 24-152-93: two wells (#18287 and #18363, Skybolt 1-24H (911) and Howitzer 1-25H (1,156), respectively, and both Slawson wells). These wells are right next to each other, maybe 100 feet apart. Based on their legal descriptions, it appears Skybolt will be a lateral in section 24 and Howitzer will be a lateral going south into section 25. Both wells are listed as confidential, but are reported as producing or plugged, which in the current boom, suggests both are producing.

Section 30-152-93: two wells (#18195 and #18207, Cougar Federal 1-30H (1,264) and Machete 1-19H (1,215), respectively, and both Slawson wells). Again, these wells are so close to each other, one has to zoom in to separate them; they, again, appear to be about 100 feet apart. Again, based on their legal descriptions, it appears that Federal will stay in section 30, and Machete will be a lateral north into section 19.  There is a rig currently on 18195 and this is the well that is to start drilling December 9, 2009. A rig is now on site for the Machete well (18027).

Section 29-152-93: again, two wells (#18211 and #18239, Minx 1-29H (1,000) and Bazooka 1-20H (876), respectively, both Slawson). Repeat the chorus. It looks like Minx stays in section 21 and Bazooka is a lateral into the north, section 20. Both wells are listed as confidential, but are reported as producing or plugged, which in the current boom, suggests both are producing.

Section 35-152-93: again, two wells (#17864 and #18416,  Jughead 1-26H/Thompson 1-35H (1,255) and Wizard 1-35H (849), both Slawson wells. The Thompson well was originally a Windsor well, but in July 2009, it was obtained by Slawson, and apparently renamed. I don't know if there is a relationship between Windsor and Slawson, but it wouldn't surprise me).  With the new name, it is likely that Wizard will stay in section 35, and Jughead will go north to section 26. Wizard is confidential (I assume it has been drilled) and Jughead has a rig on site -- January 14, 2010).

Section 1, 151-93: again, two wells (#18364 and 18180, Zephyr 1-36H (1,637) and Stallion 1-1-12H (2,735), both Slawson wells). The designation of 18364 suggests it will be a lateral into section 36 to the north, whereas the Stallion may be a "long lateral," extending in both sections 1 and 12 to the south.  Stallion is confidential with no news, and Zephyr has a rig on site.

Section 5, 151-92: again, two wells right next two each other (#17801 and #18220, Jericho 1-5H and Coyote 1-32H, both Slawson wells). Jericho had an initial production flow rate of 750 boepd, a nice well; Coyote, even better, 846.

Section 28, 152-92: again, two wells, practically on top of each other (#17748 and #18199, Fox 1-28H (1,208) and Zulu 1-21H (290), both Slawson wells). Both are confidential but based on nomenclature, it looks like Fox stays in section 28 and Zulu goes north to section 21.

Obviously there is very little information on how good these wells might be. I mentioned Jericho (#17801) above with a nice initial flow rate of 750 boepd. In addition, another Slawson well (#17504, Holst 1-33H) reported a nice initial flow rate of 825 boepd. Slawson's #17505, Wolf 1-4H, reported an initial flow rate of 309 boepd. This is not a particularly remarkable well, but it might have been a single-stage fracture back in January, 2009, time frame. In the past year, "we've" come a long way in increasing the initial flow rates through multiple-stage fracturing.

Meanwhile, #18407, Ripper 1-22H (2,369), another Slawson well, 22-152-92, had an IP of 2,369.

#18331, Fed 1-34-35H-152-92, a Questar well, 34-152-92, is now producing (2 sections).

Some of these wells were mentioned in a NOG press release, November 4, 2009.


Other Slawson wells in Big Bend / Van Hook include (grouped by section, not permit):

18970, Pike Federal 1-3-2H, 3-151-92, new permit Apr 29, 2010
18312, 902, Slawson, Whirlwind 1-31H, Big Bend

18589, 962, Slawson, Sniper Federal 1-6-7H, Big Bend
18575, Hunter 1-8-17H, 8-T151N-92W
18617, Badger 1-9H, 9-T151N-92W
18870, Moray Federal 1-10H, 15-151-92
18871, Neptune 1-15H, 15-151-92
18590, Alamo 1-19-18H, 19-T151N-92W
18574, Mole 1-20H, 20-T151N-92W
18865, Silencer 1-29H, 20-151-92
18619, Crusader 1-16H, 21-T151N-92W, 84 -- not a typo, reported Oct 22, 2010
18621, Diamondback 1-21H, 21-T151N-92W
18872, Mustang 1-22H, 22-151-92
18749, Osprey Federal 1-26-25-30H, 26-151N-92W
19047, Revolver 1-35H, 26-1511-9, 1,770
19000, Goblin 1-26H, 26-151N-92W


18188, Genesis 1-13H, 13-T152N-92W
18119, Tempest 1-14H, 14-T152N-92W, 1,274
18327, Tarantula 1-16H, 16-T152N-92W, 898

18954, Nightcrawler 2-17H, 17-152-91
18924, Vixen Federal 1-19-30H, 19-152-91
18925, Phoenix 1-18H, 19-152-91, 1,521
18368, Payara 2-21H, 21-T152N-91W
18428, Prowler 2-16H, 21-T152N-91W
18504, Sauger 1-23H, 23-T152N-91W
18717, Sauger Federal 1-22H, 27-152-91
18170, Cannonball Federal 1-27-34H, 27-T152N-91W, 1,382
18495, Voyager 2-28H, 33-T152N-91W


18499, Lunker Federal 1-33-4H, 33-T152N-91W
18595, Atlantis Federal 1-34-35H, 34-T152N-92W, 1,131

18750, Shad Federal 1-2-3H, 2-151N-91W
18792, Jericho 2-5H-TF; to be drilled under Jericho 1-5H Bakken to see if two formations communication; partner with NOG

Updated April 27, 2010.
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Friday, December 11, 2009

Eco-Pads

Remember: to find "all" stories on Eco-Pads, click on the label/tag "Eco-Pads" at the bottom of the blog where the labels/tags are located. 

If this is your first time to this site, and you know little about "the Bakken," the Williston Oil Basin, or North Dakota oil industry, you might want to start on my "welcome" page or my page for "first time visitors."

CLR video of an Eco-Pad.

ECO-PADS

January 14, 2018: re-posting a link to Rigzone story on CLR's Eco-Pads, August 6, 2009.

August 12, 2011: Update on three CLR Eco-Pads. 

March 23, 2011: Nice story in Minot Daily News.com on Eco-Pads. Seven Eco-Pads completed so far; three more under development, more to follow. $6 million/well = $24 million/pad.

February 17, 2011: QEP has an Eco-Pad? First time I've seen another producer with four wells on one pad.

November 26, 2010: Update on CLR's Eco-Pads; eight wells on one pad; EUR for two 1280-acre spacing units with eight wells --> 4 million bbls. Four wells on one pad; two adjoining pads. EUR about one million barrels/section in better Bakken locations.

September 30, 2010: Three of four of the Arthur-Hegler Eco-Pad wells reported today.

September 13, 2010: CLR granted another Eco-Pad permit; this time in the same section whey CLR proved that the TFS and the Bakken are separate formations. Very, very exciting.

August 27, 2010: first Eco-Pad comes off confidential list tomorrow (August 28, 2010)

May 11, 2010: Rattlesnake Eco-Pad (Bridger/Bonneville); NENW 23-146N-96W

March 26, 2010: Eco-Pad permitted in Dunn County, SESW 26-147N-96W
Four wells #18858, #18859, #18860, #18861
Morris 3-26H; Carson Peak 3-35H; Morris 2-26H; Carson Peak 2-35H
Update: CLR's first Eco-Pad has been spudded. March 3, 2010.

Click here for the status of Eco-Pads in the Williston Basin.

This is the definition of Eco-Pad as provided by reliable source at that site:
One Eco-Pad contains 4 wells. A Bakken and Three Forks well will be drilled both North and South from the Eco-Pad.  This covers 4 square miles or 2,560 acres (4x640).  I have noticed in their diagrams a placing of Eco-Pads on the far West and East sides of the stacked 2560 acres.  This looks to me as if they want to drill 1 Eco-Pad on one side or the other and then if warranted drill another on the opposite side.  If things look really good  they will then have the possibility of placing a wells  right in the center.  If they complete the whole project there would then be a total of 12 wells.

My opinion is the number of Eco-Pads placed in the 2,560 will be determined by how productive each Eco-Pad is.  Since the productivity is variable then I would expect more Eco-Pads in some locations and fewer Eco-Pads in other locations.
To see a graphic of an Eco-Pad, visit Continental Resources homepage for investors,  and click on any of the recent corporate presentations. Somewhere around "slide 16" in the most recent presentations, CLR provides a graphic representation of an Eco-Pad. Pretty cool.

NEWS

February 18, 2010: Multi-well pads for Hess.
Hess granted permits #18733 and 18734, EN-Will Trust A-157-94-2734H-2 and EN-Will Trust A-157-94-2734H-3, respectively. These two wells are on the same pad, 25 feet away from each other. I am waiting to see a permit for EN-Will Trust A-157-94-2734H-1. They are in the Big Butte oil field, Mountrail County.
January 25, 2010: Hess' multiple-well pad concept. Six wells in one section, 2580-acre spacing.

January 21, 2010: CLR says it will drill 24 wells along the Williams-Divide county borders using the EcoPad concept. They will drill eight (8) wells on just 14 acres of land; four (4) wells on each pad, with the two pads abutting each other. Regulators have to approve the CLR proposal. Most interesting: the wells will be offset 50 feet from the section line, rather than the customary 500 feet. This will add 450 feet per lateral per well that would normally go undeveloped.  The article is in the Tioga-Crosby Journal online.


Updated: January 25, 2010
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