Thursday Morning -- The First Day Of The Last Quarter This Year -- October 1, 2026

Locator: 51844B.

Story of the day: Corning. 

• the cover story on Forbes today -- link here; and,
• covered several times on CNBC yesterday. 

Saturn: optimum time of the year to view Saturn -- link here. 

Overnight headlines:

• Hegseth's major policy speech: link here. 
• Thiel buys $130 million storied property in Los Angeles: link here. 
• Note: Thiel and family have not formally "left" the US. Their relocation to Argentina is a temporary relocation due to current events in California.
• the strait is back! Saudi crude through the strait climbed from around 850,000 bopd in late August to 6.7 million bopd last week
• China increasing oil purchases
• LNG Canada Phase 2: FID; 
• would double capacity to 28 mtpa as Shell sees global demand nearing 700 mtpa by 2050 -- almost double current demand
• current demand: 400 mtpa 
• Trump unveils $200 billion South Korean investment in US; Texas, big winner; and, Alaska; 
• previously announced; not new; a political speech leading up to midterms
• perhaps most interesting: California joins growing plug-in solar boom as power costs surge. 
• the state is the 10th state to allow so-called balcony solar as officials grapple with soaring electricity bills -- Bloomberg
• balcony solar: compact plug-and-play, 1 to 3 lightweight solar panels that attach to balcony railing, with a standard 120-volt wall outlet
• all this tells me: Californians panicking 
•  DOD to select state for new, massive military base -- Hegseth
• plan for 25,000 troops
• currently: 
• Ft Hood: 36,000 to 40,000 active-due soldiers
• renamed Fort Cavazos in 2023, then reverted back to Fort Hood 
• Ft Bragg: largest US Army post -- 250,000 total population with 50,000+ active-duty
• geographically largest
• White Sands Missile Range: largest Army-owned installation
• Fort Bliss (Texas/New Mexico): largest active-duty sprawling maneuver post 
• DeepSeek: failing as investment vehicle (Chinese LLM) --  link here.
• no matter how bad your portfolio is, it can't possible be this bad. 

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Back to the Bakken

Bakken East Pipeline: link here.

• it seems like this took forever; I had forgotten about it
• MDU's WBI Energy reaches positive final investment decision (FID)
• Bakken area to Fargo area (all intrastate, North Dakota) 

WTI: $90.41.

New wells reporting: 

• Friday, October 2, 2026: 4 for the month, 4 for the quarter, 503 for the year, 
• 42193, conf, Whiting, Link 5001 11-18 2BHP,
• 42150, conf, Whiting, Toonie 5001 11-18 3B,
• 42149, conf, Whiting, Toonie 5001 11-18 2BX, 
• 41924, conf, Hess, GO-Lemire-157-97-3613H-4,
• Thursday, October 1, 2026: 0 for the month, 0 for the quarter, 499 for the year,  
• None. 

RBN Energy: FIDs on LNG Canada Phase 2, Coastal GasLink Expansion to Boost Montney Production. Link here. Archived.

The big news this week may have been the final investment decision (FID) on LNG Canada’s Phase 2, but that announcement — spurred in part by recent changes in Canadian tax policy — will have even larger upstream impacts. For one thing, TC Energy will now move ahead with its plan to nearly double the capacity of the massive Coastal GasLink pipeline, which serves LNG Canada. Also, producers in northeastern British Columbia’s Montney Formation can now make firmer plans to significantly ramp up drilling-and-completion activity, an expansion that will have positive effects on condensate production for use in the Alberta oil sands. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll explain why the newly sanctioned LNG Canada expansion signals a “beautiful day” for a wide range of Western Canadian market players.

As you all know by now, the consortium that co-owns the existing LNG Canada Phase 1 — Shell (the operator, with a 40% stake), Petronas (25%, with one-fifth of that implicitly held by MidOcean Energy), PetroChina Co. Ltd. (15%), Mitsubishi Corp. (15%) and Korea Gas Corp. (KOGAS, 5%) — has now reached FID on Phase 2. In the team’s September 28 announcement, they said that, like Phase 1 (orange diamond in Figure 1 below), the Phase 2 expansion at Kitimat, BC, will consist of two liquefaction trains and boast a capacity of 14 MMtpa, or about 1.8 Bcf/d. Phase 2 (checkered orange-and-white diamond), which is expected to come online in 2031-32, also will include an additional LNG storage tank, condensate tank and loading berth, as well as expanded utility and process systems.

Micron: 4Q26 -- Quarter Ending August, 2026 -- Posted September 30, 2026

Locator: 51843MICRON.

Market action certainly suggests "things just below the surface" don't look anywhere as good as they seem in tech. Check out Mattel today, the outgoing CEO, and where he's headed. Seriously, did Ynon Kreiz do anything at Mattel. I seriously don't know but the eight-year chart looks awful. Trading near $50 in 2013, Mattel's share price has fallen steadily, and is now barely above $11. The overall economy, for investors, has a lot of red flags - at the end of the day, Micron had an incredible report but it was not a bit reassuring. "Everything," it appears, had already been baked into the earnings call and the market's reaction to the earnings call.  

Has memory become the new oil? IYKYK. I don't know. Micron, 4Q26, ending August, 2026: 

What does Micron make and who uses what chips? Link here. Link here: https://share.google/aimode/PM5VeiIkCjuF4p1NH.

Cash on hand and operating cash flow: absolutely insane (rounded) --

• cash on hand: $75 billion; 
• operating cash flow: $45 billion;
• means nothing to me unless I compare it to BRK for example
• Ford Company's market cap: $50 billion.
• cash on hand: $30 billion;
• operating cash flow on a quarterly basis: <$5 billion 

Daily Activity Report -- September 10, 2026

Locator: 51842B.

Has memory become the new oil? IYKYK. I don't know. Micron:

 

Say what? Link here. If it's Charles Kennedy, it has to be important. 

The latest survey shows both oil and gas production increased again in the third quarter across Texas, southern New Mexico and northern Louisiana, meaning producers have now reported rising output for two consecutive quarters. The region includes the Permian Basin, the country’s largest oil-producing basin, as well as the Eagle Ford and Haynesville.

The spending outlook was much weaker beyond the current increase. The index measuring expected capital expenditures for the following year was zero in the second quarter, even as current spending climbed.

U.S. inventories are adding another complication, with commercial crude stocks increasing by 900,000 barrels last week to 427.3 million barrels, according to EIA data released Wednesday. Distillate inventories moved in the opposite direction, falling 2.3 million barrels and leaving stocks 14% below their five-year average for this time of year.

Strait of Hormuz: according to Rigzone, "Middle East oil flows are nearing pre-war levels as shipments through Hormuz and alternative routes rebound." 

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More From The Bakken 

WTI: $90.41.

Active rigs: 33.

Five new permits, #43354 - #43358, inclusive --

• Operator: Phoenix Operating
• Field: Alkabo oil field, Divide County;
• Comments:
• Phoenix Operating has permits for four Top Gun wells and one Rooster well, NWNE 31-162-102, 
• to be sited 564 FNL and 1897 / 2017 FEL.

Approved for re-entry:

• 41258, Marlo Operating, Tosco Branch 2, NENE 19-129-103, Bowman County.

Re-entry permit canceled:

• 41700, Marlo Operating, Tosco Branch 4, NENE 19-129-103, Bowman County. 

Five permits renewed:

• KODA Resources: three Bock and two Kolsh permis, all in Divide County.

American Airlines -- New Loyalty Perk -- September 30, 2026

Locator: 51841TRAVEL.

Generally speaking, one's gate / terminal will change at least twice while waiting for your departure flight at DFW, Texas. 

Currently there are five passenger terminals at DFW, but starting in 2027, that will increase to six passenger terminals, increasing the tour by 20% over the current tour. Each terminal has something different to offer: one has a hotel; one has the USO center for traveling military members; one has a motocross track for off-roading vehicles, etc.

I've been informed that the motocross track for off-roading vehicles does not exist at DFW. Sorry. My bad.

Ken Griffin Donation To Carnegie Mellon -- Part 2 -- September 30, 2026

Locator: 51840PHILANTHROPY.

PART 2: Now, more story lines.

There are so many story lines here. 

• University / college / education changes.
• less than two weeks ago, I had a very long discussion with Gemini about changing demands being placed on educational institutions: link. Or go to these links: if I decide to come back to this issue, it will be at this link. Link here: https://share.google/aimode/uWoDs6msUKW5HiMRw.
•  there is a new term for this, and it was introduced during the CNBC interview with Sarah Eisen.
• Now, we have this from Gemini, link. Link: https://share.google/aimode/GSmyXgePvAAvcS91s.
• Instead of traditional departments and academic majors, CMU Miami will completely structure its research and studies around four core societal/grand challenge areas;
• human health and biological discover;
• national security and strategic capabilities (and economic competitiveness;
• energy and climate resilience; and,
• advanced manufacturing and industrial transformation. 
• Miami.
• Griffin's personal desire to make Miami, where he lives, a world-class city;
• he is genuinely really excited about this -- giving some with his name on it, unlike Bill Gates and Warren Buffett who give their money away and appear to lose control/interest, unlike how they invested. 
• Anti-semitism. 
• in the interview, Ken Griffin did not go there
• however, Sarah Eisen brought it up
• Griffin is a Harvard alumnus; he had give $500 million to Harvard until he paused contributions to Harvard after rampant anti-semantic sentiment surfaced
• hit a trifecta by this $3-billion donation to CMU 
• he could have given this to Harvard or split it among Miami, CMU (PA), Harvard but chose to completely "stiff" Harvard (maybe a bigger donation to Harvard is yet to come) 
• The "Situational Awareness" fund meltdown. 
• Griffin may or may not have felt some pushback from others stepping in like a vulture
• using much of that windfall as a record donation would have blunted much of that pushback 
• In an earlier interview, Sarah Eisen said this was the biggest such donation; then she said the second was Bloomberg's donation of just under $1 billion to another institutional institutional 
• that is incorrect; the second was Phil Knight's donation to University of Oregon ($2 billion) to his alma mater. Previously noted on the blog.

PART 1: This was post earlier. 

Remember the story of the largest known donation ever to an American university: Nike founder to University of Oregon? Just a few days ago. It's on the blog somewhere.

Now we have a tie: Ken Griffin's $3 billion donation to Carnegie Mellow (but he divides that total donation among two different campuses).

Ken Griffin Carnegie Mellon: $2 billion -- a CNBC report this morning:

• $1 billion for the main campus (computer science and university priorities)
• $2 billion for the new Miami campus (new)

Carnegie Mellon University -- 

Carnegie Mellon University's main campus is located in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, and a new Miami campus is planned for the Wynwood neighborhood backed by a historic $3 billion gift from Citadel CEO Ken Griffin.

Folks may remember this recent Citadel story:

Not hearing a peep out of Bill Gates or Warren Buffett.

Early Morning Trading -- Last Day Of The Third Quarter -- September 30, 2026

Locator: 51843INVESTING.

CNBC "Halftime Report": with announcement of new fighter ...

• argument again, fighters vs drones (when folks get into this argument, it sounds like the analysts missed the memo with regard to Iran. 

Early morning headlines:

• holy mackerel: the UK says the incident at RAF Fairford was likely led by Iran. 
• holy mackerel: it looks like it was very fortunate that a plane full of Israeli citizens saved their flight from a co-pilot tried to kill/disable the pilot and crash the plane; and,
• an LNG tanker hit by "device"; for some reason this one caught the headlines -- headline came out just as allies were saying they (again) had control of the strait.
• WTI? Up for 2% after these reports.

Early morning trading:

 

The US Equity Market Is Surging After Final Read Of 2Q26 Inflation Data (PCE) -- Robinhood -- Company In The News Today -- September 30, 2026

Locator: 51842INVESTING.

Becky Quick: Ms Quick had a huge "run" with BRK over the past twenty years. The tea leaves suggest she is looking for her next gravy train. It looks like it will be SI/AI but she will end up focusing on one company.

Quincy, Washington: folks may want to do a deep dive on Quincy -- Quincy, Washington transformed from a struggling agricultural farming town into a major digital data center hub starting in 2006, when Microsoft broke ground on its first major data center. 

Company in the news today: Robinhood. 24-hour agentic trading over the weekend; app specifically "built" for new iPhone Duo (the Duo not yet released). "Full" US equity trading, 24-7, inaugurated by Robinhood. Did Schwab miss an opportunity?

• 24/7 trading under the "auspices" of "Bruce Markets." 

Trump's SI/AI summit: that group photo is amazing -- Jensen Huang on his immediate right; Elon Musk on his immedate left; and AMD/CEO immediately behind President Trump. And every SI/AI CEO at the table -- 

Trump pressing for:

• free electricity in all communities that have an LCD
• teacher bonuses in communities with an LCD

***************************
American Economy

Fed rate: may not hike in October, 2026. 90% likely in December. Heading for 7% mortgage rates. The SI/AI industry doesn't care. The housing industry is slowly being destroyed. 

JOBS: September ADP private payrolls -- up 90,000 jobs in September vs 68,000 anticipated. We just can't slow this economy. 

PG&E in California, SI/AI buildout:

The 1.8 GW of new data center load that PG&E plans to operationalize by 2030 (primarily serving Silicon Valley) is vastly overshadowed by the growth exploding across Texas, Virginia, and Ohio. 

While PG&E is intentionally pacing its growth and targeting smaller, high-confidence loads, other states are building gigawatt-scale, AI-driven mega-campuses.

For full discussion, see this link. Link: https://share.google/aimode/JMx8ntsnpqWxNAb8k.

As Some Would Say, Somthing Almost Happened -- "Everything's Fine, We've Apparently Landed In Saudi Arabia" -- Wednesday, September 30, 2026

Locator: 51841AVIATION.

Flight yesterday from Dubai to Tel Aviv diverted to Saudi Arabia. Just another day in the 'hood.'

This is not an SNL skit -- at least not yet. Link here.

Ken Griffin Donation To Carnegie Mellon -- September 30, 2026

Locator: 51840PHILANTHROPY.

Remember the story of the largest known donation ever to an American university: Nike founder to University of Oregon? Just a few days ago. It's on the blog somewhere.

Now we have a tie: Ken Griffin's $3 billion donation to Carnegie Mellow (but he divides that total donation among two different campuses).

Ken Griffin Carnegie Mellon: $2 billion -- a CNBC report this morning:

• $1 billion for the main campus (computer science and university priorities)
• $2 billion for the new Miami campus (new)

Carnegie Mellon University -- 

Carnegie Mellon University's main campus is located in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, and a new Miami campus is planned for the Wynwood neighborhood backed by a historic $3 billion gift from Citadel CEO Ken Griffin.

Folks may remember this recent Citadel story:

Not hearing a peep out of Bill Gates or Warren Buffett.

This Should Make Everyone Much Happier Except For The Services And A Few General / Flag Officers -- September 30, 2026

Locator: 51839HEGSETH.
Locator: 51839MILITARY.

War Secretary Pete Hegseth will announce today -- September 30, 2026 --  a 20% cut to the positions reserved for generals and admirals, doubling the reduction he ordered last year. 

The cuts apply to slots, not the officers filling them now. According to sources, almost all slots are filled; very few exceptions.

Some jobs will be downgraded so that colonels and Navy captains can hold them, and the services have until January 1, 2027, to complete the work. Last year's order trimmed 10% of all generals and admirals and 20% of four-stars, which Hegseth summed up as "Less Generals, more GIs."

Before you all get excited:

The fact this is not being broadly reported in the US media speaks volumes.

Electricity Rates By State -- Just Posted -- All Sectors: North Dakota Lowest (?) -- Data For July 2026 -- Posted September 30, 2026

Locator: 51838ELECTRICITY.

Usual disclaimer applies: typographical errors and content errors likely. I go through the report quickly.  

By state. 

Link here. 

All sectors: only three states with a 9-handle: New Mexico, 9.52 cents; North Dakota, 9.09 cents; Louisiana, 9.74 cents.

• North Dakota: up from 8.56 a year ago
• New Mexico: down from 10.38 a year ago 
• Louisiana: look at this -- 9.74 vs 10.37 last year

Residential: only four states with a 13-handle, despite record-setting a/c use / hot summer -- North Dakota, Tennessee, Idaho, Kentucky. BUT, Louisiana with a 12-handle. 

• Louisiana: 12.72 vs 13.12 last year
• North Dakota: 13.41 vs 13.31 last year -- way well below inflation at 0.75% y/y -- less than 1% increase y/y
• Tennessee: 13.71 vs 13.21 last year
• Idaho: 13.72 vs 12.28 last year
• Nebraska: 13.78 vs 12.84 last year
• Kentucky: 13.81 vs 13.13 last year
• Missouri: jumps to 16.09 

Industrial: California with a 25-handle vs so many states well below 10 cents. NY state is at 10.81 vs 10.06 last year. Others of note:

• New Mexico: 4.18 vs 5.74 last year (very little industry; lots of coal?); obviously an oulier
• South Carolina: 7.84 vs 7.88 last year

The big LCD states, industrial:

• Virginia:  10.07 vs 9.70 last year
• Ohio: 10.95 vs 9.05
• Texas: 7.07 vs 6.61 last year

The big LCD states, residential:

• Virginia: 17.55 vs 15.78 last year
• Ohio: 19.45 vs 17.38 last year
• Texas: 15.85 vs 15.36 last year

The big LCD states, overall:

• Virginia: 13.49 vs 12.20 last year  
• Ohio: 15.09 vs 13.10 last year
• Texas: 10.91 vs 10.55 last year

The wind state: residential:

• Iowa:  15.99 vs 15.31 last year.

Greenland: Another Massive Win For The US -- September 30, 2026

Locator: 51837GREENLAND.

This was a huge win-win for all parties involved: true extension of the Monroe Doctrine. Add this to the list of changes in the western Hemisphere under President Trump's two administrations.  

Another massive win for the US. 

 

The Rich Are Getting Richer -- The WSJ -- Spetember 30, 2026

Locator: 51836WEALTH.

The intergenerational wealth transfer has begun. See last statement below.

The rich have gotten richer since Covid-19 (surprise, surprise); some great graphs; the gap between the rich and the very, very rich is getting wider; link to The WSJ;  

The ultrawealthy aren’t just pulling away from average Americans. Buoyed by a stock-market boom that has added trillions of dollars to their net worth, the extremely rich are even pulling away from other rich Americans.

The top 0.1% wealthiest Americans have seen their total wealth more than double since the end of 2019, according to new data from the Federal Reserve. The year the pandemic started was when the ultrawealthy began to pull away from other rich groups, according to a Wall Street Journal analysis of Fed data.

In dollar terms, the very richest Americans have gained a total of $14.5 trillion in wealth over that period, with most of that—about $10 trillion—coming from gains in stocks and mutual funds, according to the Fed data, which runs through the end of June.

The 0.1% now control about $28 trillion, or about 15% of the nation’s total wealth, which amounts to nearly $186 trillion. The average wealth for a household in this group is more than $200 million.

As of 2022, the minimum for the top 0.1% was $45.8 million, according to the most detailed data available from the Fed. With wealth among the group up by roughly 50% since then, that threshold is much higher now.

The people who fall into this group aren’t usually traditional salaried workers. Rather, they are much more likely to be the owner of a bunch of car dealerships or an heir living off investment income.

Friday — September 30, 2026

Locator: 51835B.

WSJ headlines overnight: 

• Boeing has been awarded new US fighter contract
• $20+ billion US Navy contract
• to develop the F/A-XX sixth-generation carrier strike fighter 
• to replace the F/A-18E/F Super Hornet and the EA-18G Growler beginning in the 2030s 
• how the Pentagon is escalating Trump's drug war in Latin America, link here;
• everything suggests the Allies have retaken the Strait, links in The WSJ and now everywhere;
• Larry Ellison / Oracle: has quietly bought eight homes in gated community in one neighborhood for his staff; exclusive in The WSJ;
• Iraq: US has officially left Iraq after 23 years in the country: some say Iran will now take Iraq; that's fine; Iran-Iraq will want oil to flow; link to The WSJ;
• the rich get richer (surprise, surprise); some great graphs; the gap between the rich and the very, very rich is getting wider; link to The WSJ; link to the blog.
• the intergenerational wealth transfer has begun. 

Other headlines:

• Robinhood / Apple partner: a new special Robinhood app built specifically for Apple's new foldable Duo phone. Hunch: left half for one's portfolio summary; right half for active trading. Hunch: soon all trading houses will built an app specifically for the Duo.
• analysts: building a dedicated app for the Duo is before it even drops is a bold bet on the hardware cycle. 
• Trump "child" accounts: automatically enrolling children should begin this month. 

Sports:

• the most baffling question: how in the world did the Dallas Cowboys lose
• with seconds to go, couldn't get winning TD with first and goal on the 2-yard line
• everyone's blaming the coach
• not me: it's Dak; we've talked about this before
• not one other NFL QB would have let this happen -- first and goal on the 2-yard line to win the game???!!! 
• link here. 
• it appears the writer does not understand how the NFL works when it comes to calling time outs. In this case, the time out was called when the runner hit the ground; that was relayed to the refs before the play even started; it's routine; the clock clearly shows the runner's knee hit the ground with time on the clock -- it's not close at all. It's how time outs work in the NFL. 

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $89.87.

New wells reporting:  

• Wednesday, September 30, 2026: 62 for the month, 142 for the quarter, 499 for the year, 

• 42294, conf, Phoenix Operating, Charlene Ferrari 9-4 6H-LL, 
• 42293, conf, Phoenix Operating, Charlene Ferrari 9-4 1H-LL, 
• 41979, conf, Phoenix Operating, Charlene Ferrari 9-4 5H, 
• 41978, conf, Phoenix Operating, Charlene Ferrari 9-4 4H, 
• 41977, conf, Phoenix Operating, Charlene Ferrari 9-4 3H, 
• 41976, conf, Phoenix Operating, Charlene Ferrari 9-4 2H, 
• 42535, conf, Devon, Borshiem 33-28 4H, 
• 41534, conf, Devon, Borsheim 33-28 5H, 
• Tuesday, September 29, 2026: 54 for the month, 134 for the quarter, 491 for the year,
• 42395, conf, KODA Resources, Ale 2436-1BHN, 
• 42284, conf, Formentera, Fonda 23-02-BAL N518HF, 

RBN Energy: new pipelines boost Permian natural gas economics, but oil still drives activity. Link here. Archived.

The Permian has up to 11 Bcf/d of new natural gas takeaway capacity scheduled to enter service through the end of 2029, with still more coming in the early 2030s. The central question is whether Permian crude oil production will generate enough associated gas to fill that capacity and, if so, how quickly. The short answer is there appears to be enough incremental capacity to provide a near-term runway, but higher gas prices and new egress are not materially changing most producers’ oil-led development strategies. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll discuss how producers may respond to the new gas pipelines planned for the Permian.

This is the third blog in our series on the outlook for major U.S. producing basins, starting with the largest: the Permian. In our first blog, we covered the major gas pipeline projects expected to enter service this year and next. Together, the Gulf Coast Express (GCX) expansion, Hugh Brinson Pipeline and Blackcomb Pipeline will add about 5.3 Bcf/d of egress capacity from the Waha area. Our forecast calls for Permian production to grow by 11.2 Bcf/d from 2026-36, with the strongest growth concentrated in 2027-29. That growth could absorb a meaningful portion of the new takeaway over time, particularly as LNG and other Gulf Coast demand expands. Given the scale and timing of the projects, however, some pipelines could initially operate below capacity rather than being fully utilized from the start.

Kinder Morgan’s GCX expansion (0.57 Bcf/d; aqua-blue line in Figure 1 below) is already flowing more gas to the Agua Dulce Hub in South Texas. The expansion lifted the pipeline’s total capacity to 2.6 Bcf/d and has helped the Waha Hub recover from negative prices, though it has not fully resolved Permian takeaway constraints. Energy Transfer’s Hugh Brinson Pipeline (medium-blue line) is ramping up flows to Northeast Texas and will eventually have a capacity of 2.2 Bcf/d. The Blackcomb Pipeline (dashed red line) is still in the commissioning process but is expected to enter full commercial service by the end of this year, providing an additional 2.5 Bcf/d of takeaway to Agua Dulce, while the planned 2.4-Bcf/d Traverse Pipeline (dashed light-pink line) will provide onward access from Agua Dulce to the Katy/Houston area in 2027.