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Tuesday, September 22, 2026

TeraFab -- September 22, 2026

Locator: 51807TERAFAB.

Tag: Terafab. 

The most influential businessmen alive today: Elon Musk, President Trump, Jensen Huang, and Tim Cook. 

Link here. As you watch this, remind yourself that this was begun in 2026 or thereabouts. Meanwhile, California has laid no rail for its bullet train after a decade of work. Posted on YouTube eleven days ago.


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Search for more TeraFab videos on YouTube.
 

For Wednesday -- Cities Ranked By GPD -- Posted September 22, 2026

Locator: 51806CITIES.

Cities by GDP: 

  • this is most interesting; posted by Schwab's Liz Ann Sonders;
  • in addition to the obvious, look at the $$$ -- 
  • New York from $2.6 trillion to $6.4 trillion -- more than doubles, and we're talking trillions;
  • in 2050, Dallas is #8; greater than Houston; Houston won't even on the list in 2050; 
    • what would the DFW metroplex be?
  • look at that: San Francisco is on the list, actually rising; and overtaking Chicago;
  • Paris drops to last on the list
  • Washington, DC, drops off the list; it's hard to believe it is even on the list now
    • Trump will be gone;
    • Pelosi is gone; 
  • most amazing! Houston drops off the list 


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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $90.33.

New wells reporting:

  • Friday, September 25, 2026: 49 for the month, 129 for the quarter, 486 for the year,
    • 41769, conf, Hess, EN-Will Trust A-157-94-2734H-5, 
    • 41533, conf, Devon Energy, Borsheim 33-28 4H, 
  • Thursday, September 24, 2026: 47 for the month, 127 for the quarter, 484 for the year, 
    • None.
  • Wednesday, September 23, 2026: 47 for the month, 127 for the quarter, 484 for the year,
    • 41731, conf, BR, HBU Hazel 10S MBH,

RBN Energy: with refining capacity to spare, China could help ease global gasoline, diesel crunch. Link here. Archived.

It’s no secret that rising prices this year for refined products (especially gasoline and diesel) have drawn scorn from consumers, businesses and politicians alike. But while no obvious remedy appears likely in the very near term, that doesn’t mean the market is stuck indefinitely, as some major refiners, especially China, still have the capacity to boost output and exports. In today’s RBN blog, we look at how China could help stabilize the refined products market.

China could play a major role in restoring market balance, but let’s look at how we got here before we dive into those details. As we noted in Basket Case, the U.S.-Iran conflict has created one of the most significant disruptions to global petroleum markets in decades, with much of the market attention focused on crude oil and the loss of flows through the Strait of Hormuz. As we discussed in Stuck in a (Gulf) You Can’t Get Out Of, the volume of products flowing out of the strait has plummeted since the start of the war. After averaging an aggregate 3.3 MMb/d in January and February (sum of stacked areas in Figure 1 below), they cratered in the following months, dropping to as little as 100 Mb/d in April (dashed blue circle) as the three-month moving average (dashed red line) plunged.

Picture Perfect -- September 22, 2026

Locator: 51805APPLE.

Tag: AAPL. 

Four New Permits; Eight Permits Canceled -- September 22, 2026

Locator: 51804B.

WTI: $90.52.

Active rigs: 32.

Four new permits, #43325 - #43328, inclusive --

  • Operator: Phoenix Operating
  • Field: Daneville, Divide County
  • Comments:
    • Phoenix Operating has permits for four Maverick wells, NWNe 31-162-102; 
        • to be sited 465 FNL and 2197 / 2287 FEL;

Eight permits canceled:

  • Phoenix Operating (4):
  • Zavanna Energy (4):
  • Formentera Operations (2):

Fifteen well name changes: they all appear inconsequential --

  • Devon Energy, #41740 - #41748, inclusive; 
  • Devon Energy, #41805 - #41807, inclusive; and,
  • Devon Energy, #41810 #41812, inclusive.

Update On Global Diesel Flow; Europe (And The Middle East) Need To Control The Houthis -- September 22, 2026

Locator: 51803DIESEL.

Link here. 

New Delhi: India has emerged as a crucial source of diesel for Europe, supplying about 60 per cent of the fuel transiting the Bab-el-Mandeb to the region in August, as Russian exports remain severely constrained and US shipments begin to weaken, according to data from Vortexa - real-time data and advanced analytics for energy and freight.

About 2,00,000 barrels per day of diesel (gasoil) transited the Bab-el-Mandeb in August on vessels bound for Europe, close to year-earlier levels after flows through the key shipping route nearly stalled in March and April. India supplied roughly 60 per cent of that volume, making Indian refineries an increasingly important source of Europe's eastern diesel supply, Vortexa said in a report.

India is the world's fourth-largest refiner, with an installed capacity of 258.1 million tonnes per annum, which exceeds domestic fuel demand by a margin.

In addition, RBN Energy posted a blog on/about September 13, 2026. Link here. Unfortunately this site is unavailable. With a subscription, you can access it here.

A Bifurcation Is Coming In The Hyperscaler Business --- September 22, 2026

Locator: 51802CHIPS.

Query: a Bloomberg lead today

Nvidia’s sinking stock valuation speaks volumes about the chipmaker’s prospects for maintaining its booming profit growth.

Nvidia’s shares are trading near the cheapest level in more than a decade, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The multiple is half what the stock commanded in 2025, when Nvidia’s revenue and profit growth was slower, and down from more than 25 times earnings estimates as recently as May.

Part of the problem is that Nvidia’s profitability is under pressure.

I asked Gemini if that lede was accurate. I was surprised by the answer. Link here. Link: https://share.google/aimode/Fovr7CDGzPwhBjsQZ.

There's a bifurcation coming. 

This is not a zero-sum game. The AI pie is growing exponentially and "everyone" in the chip business is going to make a lot of money before this is all over. 

Not All Walmart Supercenters Are Equal In Size -- September 22, 2026

Locator: 51801WALMART.

So, now I have five major grocery stores from which to choose. Six, if you include Kroger in the same general area. 

Query: Size difference in square feet between the Walmart Supercenter at 1732 Precinct Line Road, Hurst, Texas, and the Bedford State Highway 121 Supercenter located at 4101 Highway 121, Bedford, Texas.

Reply at this link. Link: https://share.google/aimode/2Rz51JUFg5BrsZTpe.

The smaller supercenter:

While the interior building is more compact at 120,463 square feet, it sits on a sprawling 25.7 to 25.8-acre plot of land. Because the land footprint is so large, this location has massive parking allowances and has even been scaled to host advanced external facilities, such as a Wing Drone Delivery launch pad and storage site.

The larger supercenter:  

This location was originally built as a standard department store in the late 1980s and was officially relocated and converted into a larger Supercenter format in October 2002. 
It features a traditional, broad Supercenter layout that accommodates an on-site liquor store, an Auto Care Center, and specialized inline services. 
It underwent a major "Capacity Expansion" renovation where they pulled out traditional stockroom racks and installed automated rack systems to free up room. This gives the Hurst interior a much more open, airy, and "uncluttered" floor plan, which frequently tricks the eye into thinking the store itself is larger. 
Even so, it is estimated to be upwards of 190,000 square feet.

"The Revival And Expansion" Of The Monroe Doctrine -- September 22, 2026

Locator: 51800MONROE.

Tag: revival and expansion of the Monroe Doctrine.  See also this link.

This headline does not give the summary of the story it deserves. It must have been incredibly painful for the journalist to write this article for CBS News. The agreement gives the US a lot more than "broad military authority." It's as if the US owns the island without having to sign the property title.


Holy mackerel: this "infinite life" agreement among the parties involved with reference to Greenland is amazing. It's probably a better deal for the US than actually taking "ownership" of the world's largest island. The US gets all the tangible benefits without the geo-political quagmire that outright ownership would have gotten us. This is simply amazing. 

One wonders how much money was involved. Whatever it was, it does not matter.  

Link here, CBS News, with further discussion at additional links. Link here. Link: https://share.google/aimode/7xIs48fXQvc3r0dYV. And Russia, link here. Link: https://share.google/aimode/RAYLDas5Vy3LMojkv.

If the "anti-AI" movement gains traction in the US, Greenland could certainly become the private reserve of any future US president's AI initiatives.  

The four most influential businessmen alive today: President Trump, Elon Musk, Jensen Huang, and Tim Cook.

Chart Of The Day -- September 22, 2026

Locator: 51799AMGN.

AMGN (Amgen): 

AAPL Hits $5.00 Trillion Market Cap -- September 22, 2026

Locator: 51798AAPL.

Tag: Apple. 

Mark: 11:25 a.m. CT, September 22, 2026: CNBC graphic suggests AAPL hit the $5 trillion market cap threshold. Whoo-hoo.  

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For The Archives 

Half-Time Report:

  • one analyst: five years from now, the future belongs to -- Netflix, GOOG, AAPL, AMZN; 
    • think sports -- they will own all sports
    • the big concern: YouTube has Netflix in its crosshairs
    • YouTube challenging Hulu, Disney, others for at-home streaming networks 
  • Josh: long Netflix -- but it has been his biggest "mistake" so far this year; still long;
  • all see Netflix right now at a "bad place" 

Anthropic: new cheaper Opus Model 5.0 --> 5.5 announced.

  • is this why Dario Amodei delayed Anthropic's IPO to October, and then to November?

********************************
Disclaimer

Briefly: 

  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken and I am often well out front of my headlights. I am often appropriately accused of hyperbole when it comes to the Bakken.
  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.
  • See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
  • Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.
  • If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
  • Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken, US economy, and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia. Nvidia is a metonym for AI and/or the sixth industrial revolution. 
  • I've now added Broadcom to the disclaimer. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Broadcom. Now, I've added Amazon. And QCOM.
  • Longer version here.
  • Disclaimer -- September 22, 2026

    Locator: 51797DISCLAIMER.
    Locator: 51797ARCHIVES.

    Page views: to go over 111 million today. 

    Later, 11:25 a.m. CT, September 22, 2026: CNBC graphic suggests AAPL hit the $5 trillion market cap threshold. Whoo-hoo. 

    WTI: didn't WTI open below $90 this morning. Yes, I saw "hope springs eternal" when I saw that. Now? WTI is back to $96.75 on the CNBC crawler. This is closer to $100 and than to $90. Just saying.

     Charting: they should have taken this chart back to January, 2026:

    Apple: AAPL sets a new 52-week high this morning. Let's see if AAPL goes over $5 trillion market cap today -

    Most influential businessmen living today: Tim Cook, President Trump, Elon Musk, Jensen Huang.  

    Investing: Sophia placed her first trades on TXSE through Schwab this morning before NYSE was open. Pretty cool. Interesting that CNBC is not talking about the TXSE though apparently the exchange has been open for the past week. Worked flawlessly. Took about ten minutes to go through compared to almost instantaneous when trading during normal business hours. Would have taken longer had they been "limit" trades. They were "market" trades. Both trades related to AI: both infrastructure. 

    Post-iPhone era: with Oura going public, Yahoo!Finance says the iPhone era is over. Okay. Link here. 

    Did Apple miss the boat by not having a "ring" to rule them all? Or is that yet to come? The Oura ring, to work, must be linked to a smart phone. According to Gemini, Apple currently benefits more from Oura than Android, but that could change due to incredible competition. Tea leaves: we'll see an Apple ring sooner than later. 

    AI solves math problem. Mathematicians agree the "puzzle" has been solved, but they say they don't understand the solution that AI came up with. 

    It cost upwards of $10 million to solve this problem. I have no idea what to say about this. Sounds like the mathematicians don't understand what AI actually did to solve the problem. Link here.  

    OpenAI marshalled some 10,000 AI agents to work on the Navier-Stokes problem. The agents worked for 88 hours, using around 130 billion output tokens. The solution resulted in a 166-page proof. I guess "they" will spend another $10 million for OpenAI to explain the proof. 

    ********************************
    Disclaimer

    Briefly: 

  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken and I am often well out front of my headlights. I am often appropriately accused of hyperbole when it comes to the Bakken.
  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. And most of the Mag 7.
  • See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
  • Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.
  • If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
  • Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken, US economy, and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia. Nvidia is a metonym for AI and/or the sixth industrial revolution. 
  • I've now added Broadcom to the disclaimer. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Broadcom. Now, I've added Amazon. And QCOM.
  • Longer version here.
  • Tuesday -- September 22, 2026

    Locator: 51796B.

    Anticipation: 


    AAPL: up slightly.

    US threatens to shut down Iranian airlines. Is this the reason Iran says it is willing to open the strait?

    LDCs: Texas governor puts all LDC permits on "hold." Let's see how this works out. LDCs are tracked here. 

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    Back to the Bakken

    Bakken production, July, 2026, data: up about 2,000 bbls month/month; down slightly for year/year. Average price: $75.56 / barrel. From Art Berman, May 13, 2018. Recommended folks "short the Permian." It looks like he may have been right. WTI is now down below $90 after Iran says it will re-open the strait. US needs to end its blockade first. Happy days are here again.

    WTI: $89.44. Hope springs eternal. Looks like Iran will open the strait if the US ends the blockade on Iran.

    New wells reporting: 

    • Wednesday, September 23, 2026: 47 for the month, 127 for the quarter, 484 for the year,
      • 41731, conf, BR, HBU Hazel 10S MBH,
    • Tuesday, September 22, 2026: 46 for the month, 126 for the quarter, 483 for the year,
      • 41723, conf, BR, HBU Hazel 5N MBH,

    RBN Energy: Plains advances growth strategy with Silver Creek purchase. Link here. Archived.

    Plains All American announced on September 16 that it is buying Silver Creek Midstream’s integrated crude oil gathering system in the Powder River Basin for $585 million. The system includes 600 miles of crude oil gathering and transmission pipelines, more than 350 Mb/d of capacity, and 1.2 MMbbl of operational storage. The deal marks a major expansion of Plains’ Rockies crude footprint and a sizable investment in the company’s crude oil infrastructure network. In today’s RBN blog, we look at how the deal could reshape flows around the Powder River Basin and strengthen Plains’ ability to move crude toward the Cushing, OK, storage hub.

    First, let’s offer some history on Silver Creek Midstream. It was founded by J. Patrick Barley in August 2017 to acquire and develop midstream assets in Wyoming and Texas. Headquartered in Irving, TX, the company initially received a $150 million equity commitment from Tailwater Capital LLC and Silver Creek Midstream management. Silver Creek's initial Powder River Basin position came through an acquisition of assets originally built by Outrigger Powder River Operating. Outrigger had developed a crude oil gathering system in the basin, consisting of about 34 miles of gathering lines and approximately 150,000 acres dedicated under long-term, fee-based contracts. Tallgrass Energy Partners acquired Outrigger in August 2017 for $36 million and renamed it Tallgrass Crude Gathering LLC. Tallgrass agreed to sell its 100% interest in it to Silver Creek in February 2018.

    As Outrigger built out its gathering system, Genesis Energy built its mainline network into Guernsey, WY, including a connection to Outrigger’s system. The system included the Powder River Crude Services Pipeline (PRCS; green line in Figure 1 below) from Campbell Station to Converse Station, and from there to the Pronghorn Terminal, which connects to the Powder River Express Pipeline (PRE; dark-blue line) south to the Guernsey crude hub. Genesis's infrastructure provided producers with access to Guernsey, regional refinery markets and rail markets, as well as Cushing via the Pony Express Pipeline.