The Million Dollar Way (The Bakken Oil Blog): 08/19/26

Wednesday, August 19, 2026

For Thursday, Tomorrow -- August 19, 2026

Locator: 51503B.

WTI: $84.57.

New wells reporting:

Friday, August 21, 2026: 42 for the month, 83 for the quarter, 427 for the year,

41991, conf, Hess, EN-Edwards-157-94-2203H-1,
41358, conf, Whiting, Gullikson Federal 5203 42-31 5BX,
41129, conf, Whiting, Gullikson 5203 42-31 4B,

Thursday, August 20, 2026: 39 for the month, 80 for the quarter, 424 for the year,

42209, conf, Murfin Drilling, CD Steffan 1-17H,
42208, conf, Murfin Drilling, CD Steffan 1-18H,
41357, conf, Whiting, Gullikson Federal 5203 42-31 3B
41158, conf, Whiting, Dobias 5203 44-32 2B,

RBN Energy: new natural gas pipeline to overwhelm the Permian Basin with outbound capacity. Link here. Archived.

The Permian Basin is the nation’s second-largest natural gas-producing region, and over the past couple of years it has been dominated by one overarching story: pipeline takeaway constraints and periods of negative prices at the Waha Hub. That has changed recently, however, as more pipelines out of the region have entered service. Now, a consortium led by WhiteWater Midstream has reached a final investment decision (FID) on the Solitude Pipeline System, which will have the capacity to take an astonishing 4.5 Bcf/d of gas from the Permian by the early 2030s. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll explain why Solitude has the potential to upend the Permian gas story, bringing us a market where takeaway capacity is so great that production cannot keep up and multiple lines out of the Permian run largely empty.

Before we look at the potential effects of Solitude, let’s look at what the project aims to do. Despite the lonely sounding name, Solitude (dashed orange line in Figure 1 below) will consist of two 48-inch pipelines, each capable of transporting 2.25 Bcf/d (for a total of 4.5 Bcf/d). Solitude is the name of a ski resort in Utah, which is probably the source of the name, as many WhiteWater-affiliated pipelines in Texas are named after mountains (Whistler, Blackcomb, Matterhorn, Eiger). Solitude will run from the Permian to Katy, just west of Houston. This is a familiar route for WhiteWater, which has been operating the Matterhorn Express pipeline (yellow line) since late 2024 and is building Eiger Express (dashed red line), which is planned to enter service in 2028. While the route is similar, Solitude has a different ownership group than other WhiteWater-led pipelines. WhiteWater will own 50% of Solitude, followed by Devon Energy (25%), MPLX (10%), Diamondback Energy (7.5%) and Western Midstream Partners (7.5%). The current plan is to have the first Solitude pipeline flowing gas in late 2029, with the second to follow in 2030.

The Three Stages Of AI -- August 19, 2026

Locator: 51502AI.

Query:

Yesterday on a business show someone mentioned three levels of AI. we're in the inference stage; next is the physical stage (robots); and then I seem to recall -- could be wrong -- there was a third stage --- a stage after physical AI?

Reply:

Followup:

What Moderna did today with its skin cancer RNA vaccine was quite remarkable, but I'm not sure if it would qualify for Sciences AI, but that's the kind of thing we'll being more of.

Reply:

Deere To Report Tomorrow (Thursday) Morning -- August 19, 2026

Locator: 51501DEERE.

Mideast. Before we get to Deere, this note. It appears that much more oil is getting out of the strait than we are being told. The US Navy is solving some problems The New York Times won't mention because it destroys the narrative.

Someday, we might talk about DOD, senior service schools, asymmetrical warfare and ask how did the US military screw it up so badly? Hegseth is probably asking the same question and rightly relieving a few general officers and flag officers from active duty. The guys that planned the current operation have been leading the military for the last two decades.

Further, in case you missed it. Three weeks ago, CENTCOM offered Trump three options, Plan A, Plan B, and Plan C. Surprisingly, Trump took Plan D.

Tehran Airlines won't be flying into Reagan International Airport anytime soon, apparently. Seriously, this puts a lot of pressure on Turkey.

Waffle House and the heat:

Now, back to Deere.

Link here.

Five New Bakken Permits -- SCCO -- Doubled In One Year -- August 19, 2026

Locator: 51500B.

Idle observation: the talking heads on "Fast Money" (CNBC) tonight seemed a bit confused about the market today. Confused by Bessent's action and Warsh's challenges. It seems they are working at cross purposed. I'm confused, also, of course.

HUGE: SLB about to restart 15 oil rigs in Venezuela. RIGS, not wells. When will SLB ever return to its glory days?

The irrelevancy of the strait: Saudi Arabia has given three refineries in Europe full September oil allocations.

Bonds: CNBC continues to be all about interest rates; I'm not convinced the "Robinhood" crowd cares all that much about inflation or interest rates. The "Robinhood" crowd seems more tuned to FOMO, MOJO, the 4th (6th) industrial revolution, personalities. I'm not even sure the "Robinhood" crowd tracks the trailing P/E. I'm not sure they even know what the P/E means. But they are right: the P/E is a trailing indicator.

Laptops:

Michael Santoli: Operates primarily as CNBC Senior Markets Commentator and co-anchor of "Closing Bell: Overtime" from the Nasdaq MarketSite, with his exact personal or professional laptop brand remaining private.

Hunch: it appears that Michael Santoli is using an Apple laptop, most likely a MacBook Pro. Color me surprised if we learn it is something different.

Melissa Lee: Known for using a Dell laptop on air while hosting programs like "Fast Money" and "Power Lunch."

My perspective: I'm always surprised when I find these "celebrities" using non-Apple products; individually the products are not necessarily better (although I think they are) but rather the "environmental niche." Granted, a lot of proprietary business programs run only on non-Apple computers.

SCCO:

AMGN: only 50% thi past year, but now breaking out ...

Apple (AAPL): benefited today with lower rates (barely, dropped a bit late in the day) but the big reason -- all of a sudden chips may be getting cheaper. Are we starting to see "the chip shortage" meme come to an end? If you are a capitalist, this should not be surprising. Corroborative evidence? INTC dropped 4% today.

Diesel: $7/gallon in California.

UNP had a great opening today but profit taking by end of day. My wife was shocked by the high price in California though she is only a spectator (she doesn't live in California and she doesn't drive a truck or a tractor) and her portfolio has never been better. LOL.

Some of this is blamed on Russia -- loss of refineries. Hey, what is California doing with refineries? California supplying a lot of refined product to Arizona because Arizona has zero --repeat, zero -- refineries. Quit blaming Russia. Ask Governor Newsom what he is doing to help the California consumer?

MPC: almost doubled in six months.

Antropic revenue: lapping OpenAI -- doubled (Anthropic) vs 18% gain (OpenAI). What's the difference? Govenment involvement? They both have a credibility issue but Sam Altman seems to be a bigger detriment. Quick! Name the CEO of Anthropic. Name the CEO of Palantir. Even more interesting, quick, name, Anthropic's #2 to the CEO.

Cadence: a company to watch but to date seems to be doing a poor job at telling its story to investors.

Stages of AI:

infrastrucure / inference AI: past / present;
physical AI: robots: present / future; the average American appears to be happy if China wins this race;
sciences AI: the future; Moderna announcement today was clearly sciences AI; RFK, Jr, definitely want to cede this race to China.

AI? Howl at the wind, AI is here to stay. It's just a matter who wins the race.

It appears China is not going to lose this race. Where's our "JFK" presidential nominee that will say, "... and we will have three robots land on the moon and safely back home by the end of 2027"?

It appears that "all" presidential aspirants will promise to slow things down, ceding the race to China. And Americans will clap enthusiastically. In one year we've successfully turned back the clock on life-saving childhood vaccines. Imagine what we can do in the next ten years.

Look what we did with EVs? Clearly the US was in the lead a few years ago (Tesla). Now China clearly leads in global EV sales. And all driven by US government policy.

I'll be dead before it's the Chinese century, but my grandchildren won't be. My grandchildren will probably have a DSA party to contend with run by an anchor child whose mother was sent here by a foreign government to give birth. But their portfolios will look great. What a great country.

Drones? It's all LIDAR. And all LIDAR comes from China.

TGT is lapping WMT. The "Target run" is a thing. The "Walmart run" not so much. "Price investment" is the new term for price cuts, rollbacks, etc.

Global economy/trade:

there is clearly a pivot / change in the trade of oil / natural gas / refined products from Mideast to western hemisphere;
are we about to see a gradual shift from South Korean trade to Brazilian trade? If so, it will be subtle, but Trump is definitely a change agent and looking to favor the western hemisphere.

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Back to the Bakken

NDIC Director's Cut: June data. To be released tomorrow, August 20, 2026. Link here. Must use a non-Firefox browser. By the way, it's also on YouTube, link here. Again, today, still last month's Director's Cut -- the data for June, 2026, will be released tomorrow after 10:30.

WTI: $84.21.

Active rigs in the Bakken: 34.

Over time, Kraken continues to acquire Neptune Operating wells.

Five new permits, #43227 - #43229, inclusive --

43227, conf, Oasis, Iverson 5202 43-19 2B, wildcat. Glass Bluff, SWSE 19-152-102, to be sited 772 FSL and 1706 FEL; an earlier Oasis/Iverson well was drilled in 2012 but has been on AB status since mid-2025.
43228, conf, Petro-Hunt, Kadrmas 143-98-10A-22-2H, NENE 10-143-98, Little Knife, Billings County, to be sited 350 FNL 1123 FEL;
43229, conf, Petro-Hunt, PH 143-98-3D-27-1H, NENE 10-143-98, Little Knife, Billings County, to be sited 350 FNL 1024 FEL;
43230, conf, Petro-Hunt, PH 143-98-3D-27-2H, NENE 10-143-98, Little Knife, Billings County, to be sited 350 FNL 958 FEL;
43231, conf, True Oil, Superior Federal, NENW 32-148-101, Bowline, McKenzie County, to be sited 675 FNL 2618 FWL;

See Oasis Iverson below:

Six renewed permits:

Oasis: six Cindy Blikre permits, Lindahl oil field, lot 3, section 2-158-95. All are still on confidential.

Three producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

42201, 969, Rockport Energy, Merritt 18-19-30 1H, McKenzie County;
42202, 950, Rockport Energy, Merritt 18-19-30 2H, McKenzie County;
42203, 1,135, Rockport Energy, Annie 7-6-31 2H, McKenzie County;

For those who have forgotten about Rockport -- from "Bakken Ops"page (I have not confirmed whether links below still work):

Rockport Energy Solutions LLC

website;
well search, July 9, 2024: four permits, all in Ranch Coulee;

40731, 40755, 40823, 40909,

second post, July 9, 2024:
first post, May 8, 2024.

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Disclaimer

Briefly:

I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken and I am often well out front of my headlights. I am often appropriately accused of hyperbole when it comes to the Bakken.
I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.
See disclaimer. This is not an investment site.
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.
If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.
Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken, US economy, and the US market.
I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.
And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia. Nvidia is a metonym for AI and/or the sixth industrial revolution.
I've now added Broadcom to the disclaimer. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Broadcom. Now, I've added Amazon. And QCOM.
Longer version here.

Apple -- Or, Climbing The Wall Of Worry -- Summer Breakout? WTI With 86-Handle -- Phoenix Rising? August 19, 2026

Locator: 51449MARKET.

Lots of records being set today.

Moderna: up $78. Trading at $141.65. Up 125% today. That's today.

Merck: just surpassed CAT as the best-performing S&P stock today.

About two months ago, I posted on the blog that there was a good argument for pivoting to banks and pharmaceuticals. Banks are down severely today.

The diesel effect?

Trump: mentioned phoenix rising -- Keystone XL? Here we go again.

Financial advisors: still using the old equity / bond mix based on one's age. Ridiculous. Cookie cutters. "All" wealth managers are now, it appears, using "tax loss strategy." You will immediately have 500 different tickers/stocks in your portfolio. I guess if your focus is on losses you are doing something wrong. How about the top two companies in each S&P sector and use tax loss strategy selectively. By the way, you can develop your own portfolio with any rules you want using Claude.

NDIC Director's Cut: June data. To be released tomorrow, August 20, 2026. Link here. Must use a non-Firefox browser. By the way, it's also on YouTube, link here. Some of these may be the previous month but you can find the most recent (August cut with June data, tomorrow, August 20, 2026). Use Chrome and search "NDIC Director's Cut" and wow! How fast it pops up. Amazing.

AI: our local school district (elementary -- high school) has directed that middle school teachers cut back on devices / digital and use more paper this year. More writing; no surfing. AI was not mentioned. LOL.

So there's that. Last year, the district directed that middle school teachers use more digital, cut back on paper. Over the summer, "they" revamped the entire electronic communication process -- new e-mail addresses for teacher; new websites to access lesson plans. In the big scheme of things, the middle school Sophia attends is quite awesome. She is very lucky. Her ELA (English) class -- almost no digital except for communication / lesson plans -- all writing -- and lots and lots of writing.
Sophia's favorite class, so far: Texas history. And it's the longest class. 5th period: first half about 30 minutes and then they go to lunch; after lunch they come back to Texas history for another 30 minutes or so. That's true for all 5th period classes -- it just happened that Sophia's 5th period is Texas history and her favorite teacher. Also, no digital / no devices, except occasionally some video snippets.

Less (almost no) homework -- emphasis on family, sports, church. Not necessarily in that order. Oh, correction: Sophia's favorite class (teacher) is science, but Texas history is a close second.

WTI: $86.41.

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Stock Talk

Stock talk. See disclaimer.

I could be wrong but if I recall correctly, Dan Nathan's last trade recommendation last week -- Friday? -- was to short AAPL.

I wonder if he also took a short position in MRNA?

I wonder what Michael Burry is doing today?