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Wednesday, April 22, 2026

CSX -- Never Saw This Coming -- AVGO -- $2 Trillion Market Cap -- April 22, 2026

Locator: 50594CSX.

UPDATES

UNP: beats. Shares rise. 

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ORIGINAL POST

MU: why did Micron surge today? SK Hynix posted record first-quarter profit, in line with estimates based on higher memory prices.  With regard to the three, market share, how do they compare? Is anyone paying attention?

AVGO: this is pretty special. Link here. AVGO's market cap: $2 trillion -- only the sixth in US history to achieve that milestone. The other five: AAPL, NVDA, MSFT, AMZN, GOOG. 

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CSX 

CSX reported nice earnings. Link here

After hours, shares surge. UNP will report earnings tomorrow morning before the market opens. Futures (UNP) flat after a down day today.

John C Phelan Is Sacked -- April 22, 2026

Locator: 50593SACKED.

This absolutely makes my day. On April 10, 2026, just twelve days ago, I wrote:

I first "met" Peter Zeihan back in 2022, or thereabouts, when he published The End Of The World Is Just The Beginning, published June 14, 2022. The big -- almost my only -- takeaway from that book:

  • the importance of water for trade; and,
  • the US Navy, alone, protected free and safe passage on the water, worldwide.  

My notes, very, very sparse, on that book, are here.

Time to take a look at the current CNO and the former CNO:

  • current CNO: advanced degrees in engineering; naval career -- submariner.
  • former CNO: undergraduate degree in journalism; naval career -- mostly executive officer, assistant director, acting director positions -- surface warfare; appointed by Biden; sacked by Hegseth

US Secretary of the Navy

  • John C. Phelan
  • businessman (no military experience?)
  • huge fundraiser for Trump
  • art collector
  • married to former Dallas Cowboys cheerleader; date of marriage unknown, but long term romance; he was 36 or 37 years old when he married.  

Of the last ten US secretaries of the navy, how many have had no military experience? Even experience in the defense industry? One. Exactly one has had no military experience. John C. Phelan.

Of the recent U.S. Navy Secretaries, only one of the last ten (John Phelan, confirmed in 2025) has had no prior military experience. While some nominees in recent years faced scrutiny over limited background in national security, most secretaries in the last 15–20 years served in the armed forces or held high-level defense industry/government roles.

And folks are concerned about Hegseth? LOL. 

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So, to repeat the high points -- the point I was trying to make.

CNO: chief of naval operations. The most important US combatant commander -- the CNO -- submarines, nuclear missiles; air wings; and transportation arm for the US Marines. I can't think of a more important US combatant commander and then consider the geography of the world.

So under Biden, the CNO he appointed was a journalism major in college. Seriously, there is no degree less rigorous than journalism. Compare that CNO's background with every CNO before and since.

Then, the Secretary of the Navy -- this is who Trump appointed:  

  • John C. Phelan
    • businessman (no military experience)
    • huge fundraiser for Trump
    • art collector
    • married to former Dallas Cowboys cheerleader; date of marriage unknown, but long term romance; he was 36 or 37 years old when he married.  
      • how is the date of a marriage not known? In America, isn't there something like a marriage license required. Yes, I know common law marriages, but this source suggested there was a specific, but unknown, date.

Of the last ten US secretaries of the navy, how many have had no military experience? Even experience in the defense industry? One. Exactly one has had no military experience. John C. Phelan.

Of the recent U.S. Navy Secretaries, only one of the last ten (John Phelan, confirmed in 2025) has had no prior military experience. While some nominees in recent years faced scrutiny over limited background in national security, most secretaries in the last 15–20 years served in the armed forces or held high-level defense industry/government roles.

And you can't say the current president has had no military experience. He was a commander-in-chief for four years, 2017 - 2021.

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Today: It's Being Announced -- John C Phelan is leaving.
 

Wow, wow, wow -- about time. It will be interesting to see who will replace him.

Hung Cao, the undersecretary of the Navy will be the acting secretary until Trump appoints a new secretary.

Hung Cao? Link here

After immigrating to the United States in 1975, Cao and his family moved to West Africa. He returned to Northern Virginia at the age of twelve and later graduated with the inaugural class of Thomas Jefferson High School for Science and Technology. He entered the Navy as a Seaman Recruit in 1989 and was later commissioned as a Special Operations Officer from the United States Naval Academy in 1996.

As a Navy Diver, Cao led underwater missions around the world. As an Explosive Ordnance Disposal Officer, he led counter improvised threat missions for Special Warfare and Special Forces around the world with multiple deployments to Iraq, Afghanistan and Somalia. In his final tour of duty, he led sensitive activities, exploitation, counter-messaging and counter-drone operations in support of the Geographic Combatant Commanders and Special Operations Command. He retired from active duty in October 2021 as a Captain.

Prior to his appointment, Cao was a Vice President and Client Executive at CACI International. He helped in fielding electronic warfare packages, counter-drone technology, optical communications, photonics, enterprise IT and shipyard infrastructure optimization in support of the Department of the Navy.

Cao is a decorated combat veteran, a qualified Navy Special Operations, EOD and Diving Officer, Naval Parachutist, and Surface Warfare Officer. He holds a bachelor’s degree in Ocean Engineering, a master’s degree in Applied Physics and was a Fellow with MIT Seminar XXI and Harvard Kennedy School. He is fluent in French and Vietnamese. Cao and his wife April have five children.

AI query: why was John C Phelan sacked?

Reply

  • As of April 22, 2026, the Pentagon announced that Navy Secretary John Phelan is leaving his post effective immediately, with sources confirming he was fired, according to reuters via tucson.com. No official reason was given for the sudden departure, which occurred after a 13-month tenure marked by internal friction and a wider shake-up of top US defense leadership by Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth.

And folks are concerned about Hegseth. He's the least of our problems. In fact, he's taking care of a lot of problems. Exhibit A: John C. Phelan.

By the way, the meme -- Hegseth sacking military generals -- the meme -- it gets tedious. 

AMD: Soars Through $300 / Share -- April 22, 2026

Locator: 50592AMD.

It goes without saying this was a 52-week high.

AMD's PEG: 0.6 to 1.4 -- relatively inexpensive.

Link here

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The Book Page

AI Query: in the The Jewish Annotated New Testament it is stated that Paul was not a convert to Christianity because Christianity did not yet exist as a separate relgion in his time. If that's true, when and where do scholars feel Christianity first came along? 

Reply:

How Bad Is The Transportation Fuel Situation In California? April 22, 2026

Locator: 50591CA.

Link here

The Western Gateway Pipeline will connect Midwest and Gulf Coast refinery supply to Phoenix, Arizona and California markets with connectivity to Las Vegas, Nevada, via Kinder Morgan’s CALNEV pipeline.

This is actually pretty clever. One lateral will definitely get built. Let California take their time deciding what they want to do with their proposed lateral.  

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Enola Gay

Link here

Huge Day For The Market -- April 22, 2026

Locator: 50590B.

Jiu-Jitsu: Gen Z's version of Twister. Seriously. Google Gemini query. 

Kristi-Noem-purse thief: sentenced to three years in prison. Wow. 

MacBook Neo: I "had" to visit Costco today to pick up some gifts. The visit gave me a chance to see the new MacBook Neo. 

It really is amazing. To walk up to the Apple computers, and among high-end computers, there's a Neo that looks just like all there rest -- except for the price -- "in-person," seeing the $589 price tag is amazing. Did anyone really think we would ever see a state-of-the-art Apple laptop for under $600? 
Saying it's under $600 makes it sound even more expensive that it really is. It's $589 -- holy mackerel. Next fall it should qualify for Texas "back-to-school" tax-free weekend. I don't know, but it should. 

Heavy metal: copper on fire today; link here. Could test all-time highs. Both GLW and SCCO up 2% today. LUMN? Up 6% today

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Back to the Bakken 

WTI: $92.52. Up $2.84; up 3%. Most likely due to:

  • reports that Iran seized two tankers in the strait;
  • the US blockade on Iran is holding;
  • everyone knows Iran won't negotiate away their uranium or their control of monetizing the strait (i.e., diplomacy is over);
  • Trump, meanwhile, can simply sit, stalk, select.

Active rigs: 22.

Four new permits, #42855 - #42858, inclusive:

  • Operators: Hunt Oil (3); Hess
  • Fields: Thompson Lake, Burke County; Dimond, Burke County; Ross, Mountrail County;
  • Comments: 
    • Hess has a permit for a RS-Jones well, NWSW 35-136-92, 
      • to be sited 2043 FSL and 495 FWL;
    • Hunt Oil has permits for two Kandiyohi wells, SESW 31-160-90, 
      • to be sited 404 FSL and 1393 / 1423 FWL;  

Tesla Surges After-Hours -- April 22, 2026

Locator: 50589TSLA.

Tesla earnings -- with report, shares surge 4.55%; up $17; will pull the market up with it tomorrow, all things being equal; remember: autos are now computers on wheels (COWs).

  • EPS: beats; 41 cents vs 37 cents
  • revenue: misses

IBM earnings -- reports beat on top lines and increases quarterly dividend; but maintains guidance; shares fall slightly. 

  • EPS:
  • revenue: 

LAM Research earnings -- reports beat on top lines and shares surge.

ServiceNow (NOW) earnings beat (?) -- but shares plummet 14%. 

April 22, 2206 -- "In The Short Run, The Market Is A Voting Machine ....

... but in the long run, it is a weighing machine." 

S&P 500, NASDAQ close at records

I wonder when folks will get the clue bug that we are in the fourth (sixth) industrial revolution. 

Locator: 50588AAPL.

I don't know if folks are following this, but it's absolutely fascinating.

The market surges today, hitting new records:

  • AAPL gains;
  • BRK-B falls.

I can't add anything to the Apple "news" that hasn't already been addressed by someone somewhere.

But, to me, it certainly appears that retail investors and now managed funds are dumping BRK. A vote of no confidence?

Three things to note:

  • Greg Abel appears to be going it alone -- the sole investment manager for BRK now? 
  • sells more of Apple; and,
  • buys NYT

In the old days if BRK sold AAPL, AAPL would fall, but today the news is out that BRK sold AAPL and AAPL surges.

BRKB is selling AAPL -- perhaps the best managed company in the world, and now, not only does the Apple CEO transition look like it's going very, very well, the changes in top leadership and reorganization appear to be making Apple even stronger:

  • the executive chairman is sticking around, moving to an independent advisory position; 
  • Tim Cook is moving to the executive chairman position; and,
  • Apple gets a hardware engineer who has been with Apple for 25 years, and is only 50 years old, to be the next CEO. Could John Ternes be a lot more like Steve Jobs, with Levinson and Cook his guardrails? 

Meanwhile, to paraphrase Orson Welles in The Third Man, what is BRK doing? Selling AAPL and buying NYT. I can't make this up. In addition, BRK keeps adding to Japanese multi-industry conglomerates just as Japan is facing an energy crisis of fairly huge proportions.  

Market today:

BRKB today:

AAPL today

What will it take to right the BRK ship?

So, What Changed? April 22, 2026

Locator: 50587RAINFOREST.

Link here.

Midday Market -- April 22, 2026

Locator: 50586MARKET.

BRKB: again, on a day the market surges --


 The market:

Micron: new 52-week high. 


 

GE Venova: gapped up 12.5%. A few weeks ago, my note to the extended family -- two of the three GE companies need to be core holdings.  


Chart Of The Month -- Fascinating -- A Harvard Case Study? Avis Surges 500% In One Month -- April 22, 2026

Locator: 50585AVIS.

Monumental short squeeze? One hundred percent of the stock owned by two investors? 

Link here

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The Book Page

Link here

The book of interest: Why I Am Not An Athiest, The Confessions of a Skeptical Believer, Christopher Beha, former editor of Harper's., February 17, 2026. 

Over at Amazon.  

I've not read the book. I have not decided whether to order it or not. 

Might be a book for a church book club to consider.

Among many accolades:

All this for only $25?!

Lewis H. Lapham, wiki

The review, the lede:

All Eyes On Ternes -- MacRumors -- April 22, 2026

Locator: 50584APPLE.

Updates

April 23, 2026: link here. This has the Apple FanBoys in a tither. 

Original Post 

Link here

Interesting, I made this very same comment -- but didn't attribute it to Ternes - just made the observation that FSD was not one of Apple's core competencies. I was surprised to read that Ternes pushed back on VR. 

He is also reportedly ready to push back when it matters – Ternus apparently opposed development of the Vision Pro, which has flopped, as well as the company's autonomous car project that cost around $10 billion, but was ultimately scrapped.

This is what everyone is watching: 

Earlier this month, Ternus reportedly reorganized the hardware engineering division around a new AI platform designed to speed up product development and improve device quality. Ternus is said to be keen to deploy AI quickly throughout Apple to improve its operations, suggesting he is willing to make clear calls and shake things up where necessary. Ternus has also told employees he will remain closely involved in hardware engineering development, indicating a sharper focus on products. 

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Selection Process 

AI query: Apple CEO: new CEO. Who are the members on the Apple, Inc Board of Directors. Who do you think were instrumental in choosing John Ternes -- which members of the board? Tim Cook's role?

Reply:

 
One has to admit this is a very, very interesting board. The most important change -- Tim Cook replacing Arthur D Levinson. Interestingly, currently Levinson is also CEO of Calico, an Alphabet venture, link here, another example of close relationship between Google and Apple. And perhaps a reason why Apple is so interested in medical / healthy life-style apps on their wearables. Just a thought. 
 
Having said that, Arthur Levinson will remain at Apple, transitioning from non-executive chairman to Lead Independent Director effective September 1, 2026.  I am unable to find the name of the current LID, assuming there was one. It appears this is a new position. If so, the Apple board has gotten significantly stronger.
 
Hardware: Ternes likes hardware. Somehow Apple needs to get a new product out in front of the high-end retail consumer. What would be a nice new box for Apple to sell? Is it time for Apple to to partner with Canon? I queried Google Gemini. The reply:
 

It's hard to believe John Ternes won't take a different path than Tim Cook. Also at TechCrunch.
 
Apple likes money. Link here to appleinsider.   

Wednesday, April 22, 2026

Locator: 50583B.

BRK: looks like BRKB will have another miserable day.

Gates: as in Bill Gates. Legacy in tatters? Melinda knows. Gates Foundation gutted. Buffett walked away a long time ago. Link here. Will testify June 10, 2026.

Energy: link here

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $90.28. 

New wells reporting

  • Wednesday, April 22, 2026: 71 for the month, 71 for the quarter, 228 for the year,
    • 41791, conf, XTO, GBU Apollo 14X-12D-S, 
    • 41380, conf, Enerplus, Hamilton 146-97-35-26-8H-ELL, 
    • 41103, conf, Enerplus, Hamilton 146-97-35-26-7H, 
    • 41102, conf, Enerplus, Hamilton 146-97-35-26-6H, 
    • 41101, conf, Enerplus, Hamilton 146-97-35-26-5H, 
    • 40793, conf, Hess, GO-Seaton-156-98-0607H-3, 
  • Tuesday, April 21, 2026: 65 for the month, 65 for the quarter, 222 for the year,
    • 41790, conf, XTO, GBU Apollo 14X-12G-S
    • 41789, conf, XTO, GBU Apollo 14X-12H-S, 

RBN Energy: organic oil and gas reserve replacement continues to dip on conservative investment. Link here. Archived.

Energy industry cheerleaders tout vast supplies of untapped U.S. oil and gas resources, but increasingly limited volumes that can be practically and profitably developed — and their desire to follow a cash-return model — have left producers struggling to organically replace proven reserves. The percentage of hydrocarbon production replaced through finding and developing has been cascading since 2018 and dipped below 100% in 2025 for the first time in more than a decade. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll review 2025 U.S. E&P reserve reporting and analyze the trends that are limiting the industry’s ability to ramp up future output.

First, let’s define oil and gas reserves and review how producers report them. Proved reserves are quantities of crude oil, natural gas and NGLs assumed to have at least a 90% chance of eventual recovery under existing economic and operating conditions (see Square One). In contrast, probable reserves have a 50% chance of technical and economic recovery, while possible reserves have only a 10% chance of recovery. Oil and gas companies are mandated to report their proved reserves in their annual Form 10-K’s. The changes result from four factors:

  • Extensions and discoveries, the most impactful, are reserves unlocked through the development of existing fields and the successful exploration of new properties. These additions are funded by the company’s annual organic — or finding and development (F&D) — capital spending. The level and effectiveness of this investment is critical to the long-term sustainability of an E&P. 
  • Revisions of previous estimates generally result from changes in commodity prices — lower prices can make certain volumes uneconomic to produce, while higher realizations nudge volumes into the proved category. Poor or better-than-expected well performance can also change estimates of future recoverable volumes from a field.
  • Purchases and divestitures reflect the net result of M&A activity.
  • Production volumes are subtracted from beginning-of-year reserves and current-year reserve additions to arrive at current year-end reserves.

The key measures of the quality and long-term sustainability of a company’s oil and gas properties are the costs incurred in organically replacing reserves through extensions and discoveries — see the first bullet above. These include development activities, such as drilling and completing wells, adding infrastructure such as roads and processing facilities, water handling and disposal, and other expenses. They also include exploration costs for finding new oil and gas reserves. What producers call the F&D replacement rate is calculated by dividing their total organic reserve additions by their total production. F&D costs are calculated by dividing the total exploration and development costs by the volume of organic reserve additions.

As shown in Figure 1 below, reserve F&D replacement rates (orange line and right axis) declined from a high of 228% in 2018 to just 93% in 2025. The steep fall from the peak resulted from sharp cutbacks in organic capital investment as oil prices plummeted in late 2019 and cratered with the onset of the pandemic in early 2020. The rate temporarily rose on catch-up activity in 2021 but has fallen since. At the same time, F&D costs (blue bars and left axis) nearly doubled from the $6/boe range in 2016-21 to about $12/boe in 2023-25.

Figure 1. F&D Costs and Replacement Rates, 2014-25. Source: Oil & Gas Financial Analytics LLC