Locator: 50100DAY3.
Yes, it's only day 3.
- H-Hour, D-Day: 0600 hrs Tehran time, February 28, 2026
Operation Epic Fury:
WTI: up 7.61%; up $5.10; trading just above $72, around 5:00 a.m. CT. At 7:00 a.m. CT, WTI was up 8.55%; up $5.73; and, trading at $72.75.
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Back to the Bakken
WTI: up 7.61%; up $5.10; trading just above $72.
New wells reporting this week:
- Tuesday, March 3, 2026: 5 for the month, 111 for the quarter, 111 for the year,
- Monday, March 2, 2026: 5 for the month, 111 for the quarter, 111 for the year,
- 40847, conf, XTO, HBU Marmon Federal 24X-13E,
- Sunday, March 1, 2026: 4 for the month, 129 for the quarter, 129 for the year,
- 41929, conf, Phoenix Operating, Willer 28-33 2H,
- 41928, conf, Phoenix Operating, Willer 28-33 1H-LL,
- 41857, conf, Phoenix Operating, Willer 28-33 3H,
- 41582, conf, XTO, HBU Marmon Federal 24X-13A,
- Saturday, February 28, 2026: 72 for the month, 125 for the quarter, 125 for the year,
- 41933, conf, Phoenix Operating, Willer 28-33-6H-LL,
- 41932, conf, Phoenix Operating, Willer 28-33 5H,
- 41930, conf, Phoenix Operating, Willer 28-33 4H,
- 41847, conf, BR, Rolla 6F,
- 41785, conf, Enerplus, MHA Heeler 4994 12-23 3BU,
- 41784, conf, Enerplus, MHA Mastiff 4994 12-23 2TU,
- 41783, conf, Enerplus, MHA Collie 4994 12-23 1BU,
- 41621, conf, BR, Sivertson 6C,
- 41581, conf, XTO, HBU Marmon Federal 24X-13B,
- 41580, conf, XTO, HBU Marmon Federal 24X-13F,
- 41579, conf, XTO, HBU Marmon 24X-13C,
- 41578, conf, XTO, HBU Marmon 24X-13H,
- 41577, conf, XTO, HBU Marmon 24X-13D,
- 41372, conf, Hess, EN-Hanson A-LW-155-94-0618H-1,
- 41369, conf, Hess, EN-Hanson A-155-94-0607H-6,
RBN Energy: for Gulf Coast refined products, it's down to Mexico by truck, rail, ship, and pipe. Link here. Archived.
U.S. exports of gasoline, diesel and jet fuel to Mexico have been
mostly rising the past 15 years as Mexican demand for refined products
stabilized, the utilization of south-of-the-border refineries sagged,
Covid hit and, most recently, Pemex — the state-owned oil and gas
company — started bringing its new Dos Bocas refinery online. Over that
same decade and a half, the Mexican government’s policy on the
import-related roles of Pemex and private companies has zigged and
zagged, complicating and ultimately slowing efforts to develop new
midstream infrastructure. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll review Mexico’s
refined product demand, production and imports from the U.S. — and
discuss what likely lies ahead.
Mexico
is obviously a key trading partner in general, and has been the #1
source of total U.S. imports since 2023 (when it overtook China for that
top spot) and in 2025 it also became the #1 recipient of total U.S.
exports, ending (at least for now) Canada’s third-of-a-century run at
the top of that heap. It will come as no surprise to our readers that
energy — or more specifically, crude oil, natural gas, gasoline, diesel
and jet fuel — is a major factor in all that U.S.-Mexico trade. Mexico
still is shipping significant volumes of heavy crude to Gulf Coast
refineries and the U.S. every day is moving billions of cubic feet of
natural gas and hundreds of thousands of barrels of refined products
south of the border — Mexico is by far the #1 destination for those
products.
We recently examined U.S.-to-Mexico natural
gas exports (and the role of non-state pipeline companies) in our
three-part blog series, Private Dancers.
Today, we shift our attention to refined products. We’ll begin with a
big-picture look at Mexico’s demand for gasoline, diesel and jet fuel;
the highly variable output of Pemex’s refineries over the years; and the
pace of Mexico’s refined product imports from the U.S. After that,
we’ll discuss how gasoline, diesel and jet fuel make their way from Gulf
Coast refineries to the Mexican market.
Combined
demand for gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel in Mexico rose by almost half
in the first decade of the 21st century — from about 900 Mb/d in 2000 to
1.3 MMb/d in 2010 — due to a combination of population and economic
gains. Demand growth has moderated since then, averaging 1.3 MMb/d in
2015 and just under 1.4 MMb/d in 2024 and 2025. (There was a sizable dip
in 2020 — to just 1.1 MMb/d — due to Covid.) Over the same 2015-25
period, Mexican demand for gasoline (blue layer in Figure 1 below)
increased from 807 Mb/d to 835 Mb/d, while diesel demand (green layer)
grew from 421 Mb/d to 427 Mb/d and jet fuel demand (yellow layer) rose
by one-third, from 74 Mb/d to 101 Mb/d.
