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Wednesday, July 8, 2026

Trump: The Tentative Ceasefire With Iran Is Over -- Wednesday -- July 8, 2026

Locator: 51130B.

PSA: US postage stamps to increase in price this Sunday, July 12, 2026.

  • Forever Stamps (one ounce): to 82 cents from current 78 cents

Anticipation: futures after President Trump says the "ceasefire with Iran is over."

Mideast: CENTCOM carries out attacks on 80 targets after Iran targets three commercial cargo ships; Iran responds by hitting targets across the Middle East; results in lots of green. WTI up over 6% overnight. WTI trending toward $75.


Is NATO finally getting on with it?
 

Getting serious?

 

From The New York Times
: 

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $74.76.

New wells reporting:  

  • Thursday, July 9, 2026: 15 for the month, 15 for the quarter, 368 for the year, 
    • 41917, conf, Murfin Drilling, MH Hecker 1-14H, 
  • Wednesday, July 8, 2026: 14 for the month, 14 for the quarter, 367 for the year, 
    • 41232, conf, Oasis, Hoehn 5202 41-24 5B
    • 41231, conf, Oasis, Hoehn 5202 41-24 4B,
    • 41230, conf, Oasis, Hoehn 5202 41-24 2B, 
    • 41194, conf, Oasis, Hoehn 5202 41-24 3B,
    • 40624, conf, Devon Energy, Skaar 15-22 7H,

 The maps, the Oasis Hoehn wells:

The Oasis Hoehn wells are south of Williston, south side of the river, just west of US Highway 85 in Indian Hill oil field. 

RBN Energy: strong margins for minerals/royalty firms spur consolidation and an IPO. Link here. Archived.

About a year ago, we chronicled the performance of publicly traded companies holding oil and gas mineral and royalty interests, the approximately 20% of gross revenues generated from wells without responsibility for the costs associated with development and production. M&A activity in the minerals/royalty space, which peaked in 2018-19, quieted during a prolonged post-pandemic wave of major E&P consolidation. As rising realizations for both oil and natural gas have recently boosted cash flows, the minerals/royalty sector has seen both the first major consolidation of the publicly traded firms as well as a recent successful initial public offering (IPO) that harkens additional entrants to the arena. In today’s RBN blog, we update our comparison of the performance of these entities with traditional E&Ps, analyze the valuation trends for each mineral/royalty company, and review significant transaction market activity.

Before we dive deeper on this, let’s quickly define a few key terms and explain in simple terms the financial side of well development and who gets what money-wise from a producing well. First, some definitions:

Mineral interests are the exclusive rights to the minerals, including oil and natural gas, found on, in, or beneath a piece of land. These rights may be leased to companies that extract oil and gas but are retained in perpetuity and survive the lease. 

Royalty interests are payments to mineral interest holders negotiated as part of the lease and based on a percentage of oil and gas production. Royalty holders are not responsible for costs associated with oil and gas production except applicable taxes on revenue and have no abandonment or environmental liabilities.   Royalty interests are terminated when the lease ends.

Working interests constitute ownership of the remaining production from a lease. Working interest (WI) owners are responsible for 100% of the costs of finding, developing, and producing oil and gas on the leasehold, as well as funding abandonment of the well and any environmental liabilities. In describing assets, E&P companies often identify their relative working interest (e.g., 100% WI) and the net revenue interest (81.4% NRI), which reflects the total royalties paid.

Because they don’t incur production costs, companies that solely hold mineral and royalty interests retain a larger margin of their share of the net revenues derived from production than traditional E&Ps. In Figure 1 below, we compare the Q1 2026 income statements of seven publicly traded mineral/royalty companies (generally referred to as royalty trusts, or RTs), four of them U.S.-based (Viper Energy, Black Stone Minerals, Kimbell Royalty Partners, and Dorchester Minerals), and three based in Canada (PrairieSky Royalties, Freehold Royalties, and Topaz Energy), with the results of a universe of 34 major E&P companies that we cover.  (Note: We have excluded hybrid firms that have significant revenue streams other than oil and gas mineral/royalty rights to simplify valuation calculations). Because of the virtual lack of production costs, the RTs generated pre-tax free cash flow of $37.32/boe, or 94% of net revenues, compared with $26.87/boe, or 70% of net revenues, for the E&Ps. Pre-tax net income for the RTs was 60% of net revenues, compared with 35% for the E&Ps.