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Thursday, June 4, 2026

Shale -- Natural Gas Production -- Global, US, China -- June 4, 2026

Locator: 50909SHALEGAS. 

There are so many numbers here it can get confusing. See data points from Rigzone, back in 2016, see below the asterisks below. These are are a subset:

So, let's see the numbers. Some data points:

  • world's natural gas production is set to grow 62% by 2040
  • world's natural gas production will grow from about 350 bcf/d to about 550 bcf/d by 2040
  • shale gas resources will be the largest component of this increase
  • global shale gas production is projected to increase from about 40 bcf/d in 2015 to about 170 bcf/d by 2040
  • shale gas production will account for about 30% of global production by 2040
  • the US will remain the top shale gas producer
  • 2015: shale gas accounted for about 50% of US natural gas production
  • 2040: US shale gas will more than double from about 40 bcf/d to about 80 bcf/d 

Okay, so by 2040 -- that more than ten years from now, back in 2016, analysts expected US shale gas to more than double to 80 bcf/d. What is the current US shale gas production, 2025?

Update: global shale natural gas production -- from AI query -- US, 2025, has already reached 80 bcf/d if I have the numbers correct. China is #2 at 2.2 bcf/d.

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Shale Natural Gas

Global shale natural gas: reposting from August 18, 2016. Link here.

Data points for shale natural gas from Rigzone: China will be world's 2nd largest shale gas producer by 2040.

So, let's see the numbers. Some data points:

  • world's natural gas production is set to grow 62% by 2040
  • world's natural gas production will grow from about 350 bcf/d to about 550 bcf/d by 2040
  • shale gas resources will be the largest component of this increase
  • global shale gas production is projected to increase from about 40 bcf/d in 2015 to about 170 bcf/d by 2040
  • shale gas production will account for about 30% of global production by 2040
  • the US will remain the top shale gas producer
  • 2015: shale gas accounted for about 50% of US natural gas production
  • 2040: US shale gas will more than double from about 40 bcf/d to about 80 bcf/d 
  • 2040: US shale gas will account for 70% of total US natural gas production (currently about 50%)
  • 2040: China -- shale gas would account for about 40% of its total natural gas production
  • 2015: China has drilled 600 natural gas wells in the last five (5) years
  • 2015: China, producing 0.5 bcf/d of shale gas 
  • 2040, shale gas:
  • 2015, shale gas:
    • US: 40 bcf/d
    • Canada: 4 bcf/d
    • China: 0.5 bcf/d
    • Argentina: 0.07 bcf/d