Locator: 50676AAPL.
Subject to change; not proofread. Typed "on the go."
This is for the extended family; not meant for general readership. These are early thoughts. Not ready for prime time.
As my family surely knows, I am inappropriately exuberant about Apple. Members of my family, no doubt, are very curious what I think about Apple's earnings for the March, 2026, quarter reported today.
My thoughts apply only to those who are wondering whether to invest in AAPL after these numbers were reported.
These numbers make it the easiest to ever answer with regard to Apple / AAPL.
The numbers reported were somewhere between "excellent" numbers and "Goldilocks" numbers.
My advice to any individual depends on what kind of trader / investor the individual is.
For traders hoping for a huge return within one year: these numbers are not enough to make me want to invest in AAPL. There are too many other opportunities. So, that was easy enough to answer.
However, if one is an investor with a 30-year horizon, Apple / AAPL needs to be in your portfolio if you are investing in individual stocks. I won't get into whether one should be investing in individual companies; that's another question, another discussion.
The best news: the earnings were not exciting enough to cause a surge in the price of AAPL. In fact, at the time this is being typed, AAPL is down slightly from its high earlier today and is actually "negative" for the day.
Holy mackerel, I take that back. I just checked, 4:49 p.m. CT, and AAPL is up $9.93 / share. [Later, up around $6.50 / share.]
All of a sudden this now becomes a much more difficult question.
Had AAPL opened flat or negative in the morning, I was going to say that I would add a significant amount of my existing AAPL holdings or open a new position in Apple.
But now that AAPL is up $10 and if it opens up $10 tomorrow morning, I would wait. Only if AAPL pulls back to $170 would I buy AAPL shares. Clearly, if AAPL opens in the upper 170s or higher, I would not buy AAPL.
There would be nothing wrong with buying AAPL at $180 tomorrow, but that's "your" choice. It would not be the worst thing one could do but you might question your decision over the next six months.
So, back to these being "Goldilocks" numbers.
These are incredible numbers for the Apple company, for long-term investors, for employees, for those whose portfolio is overweighted in AAPL.
In order of importance, at least to some degree:
1. Had the earnings "blown out" expectations and had the shares surged 10%, it would be a formidable challenge for the new CEO. Wow, he would have been under a lot of pressure to perform. These are "Goldilocks" numbers for the new CEO. The numbers tell "everyone" that Apple is sound, and the new CEO, John Ternus, only needs to remain steady at the helm.
2. The iPhone was introduced in 2007. That's eighteen years ago and Apple's margins actually rose from 48.4 to 49.3 -- I don't think there's any product that's been on the market for almost two decades whose margin continues to grow. And we're not talking from 5% to 6% -- we're taking margins that approach 50% after almost twenty years.
3. The meme for the past dozen years is that Apple's profits are all about the iPhone (hardware/software). People who are actually paying attention know that services for Apple are becoming increasingly important, and this quarter, Apple's profits from services were actually greater than profits from the iPhone (I need to check out exactly what was being compared.) This will actually become more important if a) Apple's supply chain breaks down; and/or, b) memory prices quadruple in price as is being projected. [I might come back to this; it appears that Apple is doing an outstanding job managing their numbers, their profits.]
4. Apple pays a dividend. It's not much but for those who have held AAPL for a long time, it adds up and for new investors, at least there's a dividend, more than what most tech companies can say.
5. AAPL has "done nothing" for the past couple of years -- absolutely flat. This simply can't go on forever. At some point, investors will get the clue bug with regard to AAPL.
6. Apple is an incredibly well-run company; no one expects this to change. If one agrees, it becomes a no-brainer for investors with 30-year horizons to have this stock in their portfolio. If I'm wrong on this, I would like to know the names of ten other companies that would make a better choice for a long-term investor.
I could go on, but ....
Bottom line:
- traders with a short horizon (less than a. year) and looking for a quick profit or bragging rights to selecting a winner, do not buy AAPL based on today's news;
- investors with a long horizon, at least ten years and preferably 30 years, starting a new position in AAPL or adding to a position in AAPL, this is a no-brainer, although I would be watching for pull back to $170. If it doesn't pull back to $170, I might forgo APPL -- there are plenty of other options. But even at $180, ten years from now, that's going to look pretty inexpensive.
Final thoughts:
- these are incredibly good numbers;
- putting the whole story together, as good as these numbers are, they are still "Goldilocks" numbers;
- forget everything I said with regard to price point: ten years from now, whether you bought at $170 or $180, it's not going to matter;
- just stick to your investing rules;
- as for me, I will be adding as many shares as I can afford tomorrow.
Again, these the blog's disclaimer: this is not meant for the general reader; it's for my extended family to let them know what I'm doing. This is not an investment site.