Locator: 50014TARIFFS.
Locator: 50014SCOTUS.
Updates
Later, 12:26 a.m. ET: market is taking back everything -- Trump played the tariffs issue perfectly. He was smart to have checked the "wrong box," Judge K's words, not mine, but I agree. The risk was that had he checked another box, he might have created a constitutional crisis. All other tariff options remain in place but it gives companies like Apple a lot of breathing room. My hunch is that this SCOTUS decision will make his Iran/military strike easier. (And sooner.)
Later, 11:20 a.m. ET; one hour twenty minutes after SCOTUS released its ruling: Sara Eisen, of the various talking heads on CNBC, seems the most knowledgeable and articulate. Carl Q must be elated but he would never show his hand on network television. He does that on x and Bluesky.
Original Post
170 pages.
CNBC won't release any "comments" until they've gone through it line-by-line.
Evan: Trump's tariffs struck down. [Scooped CNBC by about one minute.]
CNBC was scooped! By Evan!
What's the market doing:
- AAPL: turned green. Near mid-day, about two hours after the SCOTUS ruling, AAPL is up over $2.00.
- SCCO: up $2.75
- CAT: had been red before the ruling, now turns green
- wow, wow, wow -- up almost $5 / share
- at 9:30 a.m., CAT traded at $755. A high of $767 at 10:10 a.m. ET -- just ten minutes after ruling released
- of the few tickers (maybe 10) that I'm most interested in, CAT has had the most out-sized move -- and in my favor -- whoo-hoo!
- the three:
- WMT: down 2%
- AMZN: up 2%
- AVGO: flat
- in general, Big Oil appears to be down after the ruling.
- major indices:
This is huge:
SCOTUS:
- president can "regulate" US trade but can't do it through tariffs. My words.
- reaffirms the US constitution that the US Congress has that authority but can be delegated to the president by the US Congress
- SCOTUS ruling suggests the president simply went too far
- 6 - 3 decision -- Kavanaugh, Clarence, and Alito dissented,
- a divided court
The court ruled against Trump can't use a specific act ... but there are so many other avenues ... bottom line:
- a political story;
- short term, huge win for US investors
- long term, lots of thoughts.
At the end of the day -- the court has threaded the needle. I'm impressed.
My wife will be thrilled: political.
Me? I'm thrilled: portfolio.
But by the end of the day, those early gains will all be "lost."
Again, it's all going to be political. Bottom line for me: again, US Congress failed by not being specific .... left the door open for SCOTUS to make this ruling.
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John Maynard Keynes
This appears to be accurate based on all I've read recently with regard to John Maynard Keynes, from Google Gemini:
It is more accurate to say that Keynes was a pragmatist rather than a dogmatic global free trader. He believed in free trade when it served economic growth, but he was willing to support protectionism or managed trade when necessary to tackle unemployment and financial crises. He was a champion of national economic sovereignty, not unconditional globalization.
In this case, Keynes might have agreed that the US was not at great risk when Trump came back into office with regard to any unemployment / financial crisis, and that, regardless of how the law written by Congress / interpreted by SCOTUS, the outcome was appropriate. I can't speak for Keynes and everyone has their own opinion but that's mine. The neat thing: I couldn't even have come this far without engaging in discussions with ChatGPT.
I sent a thank-you note to ChatGPT for engaging in many discussions with me over the past few weeks with regard to Keynes, Hayek, and Friedman. The discussions helped me understand the SCOTUS ruling a whole lot more than if I had not had those discussions.
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Disclaimer
Briefly
Briefly:
I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken and I am often well out front of my headlights. I am often appropriately accused of hyperbole when it comes to the Bakken. I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken, US economy, and the US market. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia. Nvidia is a metonym for AI and/or the sixth industrial revolution. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Broadcom. Longer version here.