Rambling -- December 18, 2025

Locator: 49730AI.

Over on x today there was a bit of difference of "opinion" regarding revenue of AI companies. Apparently it depends on how one asks the question. Chatbots are very exacting and one needs to know exactly what question one is asking, and then ensure it's being asked correctly. Chatbot don't have the ability to "nuance" what you're thinking.

I asked twice, at two different times, and got the same answer: taking revenue from all sources, AI-related or not; from chips or not; from the cloud or not; it does not matter -- taking revenue from all sources and using the broadest definition of "AI-related companies," what "AI-related companies are reporting the most revenue. [Although ChatGPT did not consider Walmart an AI-related company, in fact, it is 

AI reply:

Another great source to compare the Mag-7: "AppEconomy" on x. 

But this is what really surprised me. The question, tracking revenue from all sources, compare Walmart and Amazon.

Here's the very, very straightforward answer:

So, in round numbers:

• Amazon: $700 billion; cut that in half -->
• Alphabet: $300 billion; cut that in half, again -->
• Nvidia: $150 billion

Re-do the list, but add Walmart:

So, in round numbers:

• Amazon: $700 billion; edging out --> 
• Walmart: $600 billion: cut that in half -->
• Alphabet: $300 billion; cut that in half, again -->
• Nvidia: $150 billion

The one retailer that has to be scared out of its wits: Target. This is existential.

In retail, Target is a direct competitor of Walmart and Target has absolutely nothing to separate it from Walmart and half-a-dozen other grocers and general merchandise. Thirty years from now, the retail landscape is going to look a lot different than it does now. And unless there's something over the horizon that none of us can see, Target could be the "lone man" out. 

Total revenue from all sources, Target, not going in the right direction:

• 2024: $106.6 billion
• 2023: $109 billion 

Revenue: Walmart could be a trillion-dollar (revenue company) by the time Target hits $100 billion (no typo). 

Market cap:

• Target: $44 billion
• Walmart: $931 billion

P/E:

• Walmart: 40 (being valued as a growth, tech company;
• Target: 12

Dividend:

• WMT: acting like a tech company, less than 1%
• TGT: trending toward 5%, currently 4.6% 

Memo to self: Kroger --

• look at market cap: $40 billion (same as Target)
• look at P/E: 60 (5x that of Target)
• look at dividend: 2%