A Deep Look At Eric Nuttal's Post Over At x -- November 13, 2025

Locator: 49413CVX. 

Tag: Chevron 

Take a look at this energy supply / demand discussion with Eric Nuttall and ChatGPT (at this link but also down below so one doesn't have to leave this site).

ChatGPT then, at my request, provided two charts comparing CAPEX vs shareholder return.

Thought experiment: 

• let's assume all operators were similar to CVX with regard to Capex and shareholder return; not a bad assumption -- see historic price of oil (farther down)
• shareholder return spiked three years in 2023 but increased significantly starting in 2021
• one interpretation: seed corn decreased in years between 2015 - 2020 due to "green" policies, fear-mongering, and bad, bad IEA forecasting
• seed corn decrease resulted in relative shortages of oil three years later leading to increased prices of oil leading to huge investor returns

Now:

• CVX says it will now focus on shareholder return, not more drilling, not increased Capex
• is CVX looking back at 2015 - 2020 with regard to Capex and shareholder return three to eight years later?
• is it possible we will see similar shareholder returns three to eight years from now (starting in 2028)?
• by the way, in 2028, the acquisition costs of Guyana will largely be behind Chevron 

Here's an analysis of the historic price of oil:

By the way, what was the reason for the surge in CVX capex in 2023 -- clearly an outlier:
not due to Guyana:

• due to CVX's massive focus on ramping up the Permian and focus on megaprojects outside the Permian (not including Guyana)
• from ChatGPT:

Lots and lots of data here and I'm not good at articulating the whole story, but it certainly raises the question whether investors might do well with CVX now? Note the blog's disclaimer.

By the way: take a look at coal in the graphic in Eric Nuttall's graphic above (and below): whether its STEPS or CPS, the demand for coal is going to fall precipitously between now and 2050. At least that's one thing "everyone" seems to agree upon. The graphs are hard to interpret, but it all looks b 2025, oil is going to be the bigger contributor to investor returns than natural gas. And oil is basically transportation -- so what's this all about?

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If Supply Is Unable To Keep Up With Demand,
It Will Be Due To Past Polices  

From an earlier post.

Energy projections: I really have no idea what this means. Link here. 

AI prompt: 

An analyst wrote:

"Devastatingly to sentiment, the IEA told us for nearly 5 years that peak oil demand was imminent. 

Today, they admit under their base scenario that oil demand will grow to at least 2050! 

Too late/damage done: "the fear of peak demand is leading to the reality of peak supply." 

What does he mean that "peak demand is leading to the reality of peak supply"? Does it simply mean that the oil companies can't keep up to increasing demand? ChatGPT's reply was interesting, as always. 

In short:

• “Peak demand” was supposed to protect us from oil scarcity.Instead, fear of it caused underinvestment, which now risks actual scarcity.
• That’s why the analyst calls it “devastating to sentiment”:
• markets and policymakers relied on a forecast that discouraged production —and now they face the opposite problem.
• oil companies can’t keep up with increasing demand.
• But more precisely, they won’t be able to because earlier policy and investor pressure — based on the belief in “peak demand” — discouraged the very investments needed to sustain future supply.

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Disclaimer

Brief Reminder

Briefly:

• I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken and I am often well out front of my headlights. I am often appropriately accused of hyperbole when it comes to the Bakken.
• I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
• Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 
• All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.
• If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
• Many posts are not proofread for several days after they've been posted.  
• Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken, US economy, and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia. Nvidia is a metonym for AI and/or the sixth industrial revolution.
• I've now added Broadcom to the disclaimer. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Broadcom.
• And Oracle. 
• Longer version here.