Locator: 49082FED.
Long post.
Bottom line: looking at the history of the Fed over the past ten years, the tea leaves suggest the Fed will only make 25-basis point cuts through the end of the year, perhaps, two; most likely, three; and, very unlikely, four 25-basis point cuts through the end of the calendar year (2025).
On a separate note: tea leaves suggest --
- no recession coming;
- no stagflation coming.
- investors will be happy with inflation running around 3% (PPI and PCE, the latter the Fed's preferred measure).
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TL:DR
ChatGPT prompt:
- In the past ten (10) years, how many times has “the Fed” made a 50-basis point rate cut in a single meeting? Has the Fed ever made two consecutive 50-basis point cuts.
ChatGPT reply:
- In the Past 10 Years (2015–2025): How many times has the Federal Reserve made a 50-basis point (0.50%) rate cut in a single meeting?
- Twice — and both occurred in 2020, during the COVID-19 crisis:
- March 3, 2020 (Emergency Cut):
- Cut: 50 basis points
- Fed Funds Target Range went from 1.50–1.75% ➝ 1.
- This was an emergency inter-meeting cut — rare outside scheduled FOMC meetings.
- March 15, 2020 (Emergency Cut)
- Cut: 100 basis points (1.00%)
- Fed Funds Target went from 1.00–1.25% ➝ 0.00–0.25%
- Also an emergency cut — one of the most aggressive in Fed history.
So while there were larger cuts (like 100 bps), the 50 bps cut specifically happened once during that sequence — March 3, 2020 — and was quickly followed by an even larger one.
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Question: Has the Fed Ever Made Two Consecutive 50-basis Point Cuts?
Answer: No, not in the past 10 years.
- The Fed has made multiple cuts in sequence, especially in 2001, 2007–2008, and 2020.
- But two back-to-back 50 bps cuts? That has not occurred. In 2020, we saw a 50 bps cut, followed by a 100 bps cut, not another 50.
Historical Note:
- The Fed has made back-to-back large cuts (including 50 bps or more) during financial crises:
- 2001 (dot-com bust): Several 50 bps cuts, but not necessarily two consecutively at 50.
- 2008 (GFC): Cuts of 50–75–100 bps occurred, but often spaced by other sizes or interspersed.
Summary
Question --- Answer
Two questions:
- Question: how many 50-bps cuts in the past ten years: one -- March 3, 2020. An emergency cut.
- Question: any consecutive 50-bps cuts? no -- never two in a row.
- however, there was one time whe a 50-basis point cut was followed by a 100-basis point cut, but that was also an emergency cut during the Covid-19 lockdown.