Energy Notes -- See Brief Disclaimer -- February 14, 2025

Locator: 48558ENERGY.

Correct me if I'm wrong. LOL. That's rhetorical. Please don't write. 

From today and I bet a lot of folks haven't even seen this (and if they have, they don't care), link here:

US electricity demand, link here:

How much electricity are we going to need? A lot. Or more precisely, an "unprecedented" 3,500 terawatt hours for the globe over the next three years. That corresponds to adding more than the equivalent of a Japan to the world’s electricity consumption each year, according to the International Energy Agency, which is out with a new report called, "Electricity 2025: Analysis and Forecast to 2027."

Snapshot: "Strong growth in electricity demand is raising the curtain on a new Age of Electricity," per the report. "Electrification of buildings, transportation and industry combined with a growing demand for air conditioners and data centers is ushering a shift toward a global economy with electricity at its foundations." Most of the additional demand for electricity through 2027 will come from emerging and developing economies, led by China, which are expected to make up 85% of the growth. 

Perhaps surprisingly, in advanced economies like the U.S., total and per capita demand has stayed relatively flat or even declined since 2009. That's due to increased efficiency across all end-use sectors (like lighting, appliances, and the restructuring/relocation of heavy industries), but things are starting to change amid higher consumption from data centers, EVs, crypto, 5G networks, and heat pumps. In fact, U.S. electricity demand is now estimated to grow at an average annual rate of 2% over the 2025-2027 period, which is equivalent to adding the total electricity demand of California over the next three years. 

Power needs: Stocks like Vistra (NYSE:VST), NRG Energy (NYSE:NRG) and Constellation Energy (NASDAQ:CEG) all surged in 2024 as key beneficiaries of electricity demand from the AI revolution.

That's set to continue, according to Seeking Alpha Head of Quant Steve Cress, who shares a new list of "Top Stocks For The AI Power Draw." He also points to some quick stats in his latest SA forum, like a "ChatGPT query consumes nearly 10x more electricity than a Google search" and "electricity demands from AI data centers are projected to increase power consumption by 160% over the next decade." 

Bloomberg's daily newsletter: sustainable investors pull away from climate talk. 

For more than a decade, money manager Garvin Jabusch would show a chart of the planet’s rising temperatures when pitching investment ideas to clients, saying they could help save the planet and still make money.

These days, he no longer uses the chart and avoids talking about climate change. “I’ve given up on anyone ever caring about that,” said Jabusch, investment chief of Green Alpha Investments, which manages about $300 million.

He isn’t the only climate-focused investor downplaying references to global warming and related topics. Parnassus Investments, the biggest US sustainable-investing firm, has removed references on its website that its funds are “fossil-fuel free.”

And Engine No. 1, the small activist firm that led the shakeup of ExxonMobil Corp.’s board in 2021, has removed wording on its web page that corporate performance is “greatly enhanced” by investing in workers, communities and the environment. The fund now says it invests in companies that are “powering innovation and driving the reindustrialization of the United States.”

Trump: unleashes LNG and Big Oil. Link here.

President Donald Trump wasted no time flexing his pro-fossil fuel stance, approving the first LNG export permit since Biden’s controversial pause last year and creating a new energy council to expand U.S. oil and gas production. The move is a sharp policy reversal and seeks to reinforce America’s position as the world’s top hydrocarbon producer. 

Commonwealth LNG, the long-waiting recipient of this permit, can now proceed with its 9.5 million metric tons per annum (mtpa) export facility in Louisiana, targeting markets in Asia and Europe. The approval effectively ends the uncertainty caused by Biden’s freeze on new LNG export authorizations—a pause that the administration initially framed as temporary but dragged on into perpetuity.

[Comment: it appears Biden was unaware he had signed this executive order.]

Trump lifted that freeze the moment he stepped back into office.

Beyond LNG, Trump has reopened over 600 million acres of offshore federal waters for oil and gas development, reversing restrictions imposed during Biden’s tenure. The newly formed energy council, led by Interior Secretary Doug Burgum, is set to drive policy aimed at maximizing domestic energy output. Industry players are already moving fast.

Cheniere Energy (LNG) and Energy Transfer have signaled plans to accelerate their LNG export projects, while offshore drillers are eyeing fresh opportunities in newly opened federal waters. Trump’s latest moves are sure to inflame environmental opposition, but legal hurdles are unlikely to slow things down much.

A federal judge recently blocked Biden’s LNG moratorium, ruling the pause unjustified. With regulatory roadblocks disappearing and demand for U.S. LNG soaring—especially in Europe, which remains eager to replace Russian gas—the American LNG boom is back in full swing.

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Disclaimer
Brief Reminder 

Briefly:

• I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken and I am often well out front of my headlights. I am often appropriately accused of hyperbole when it comes to the Bakken.
  
• I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
• Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.
  
• If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
• Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken, US economy, and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia. Nvidia is a metonym for AI and/or the sixth industrial revolution.
• I've now added Broadcom to the disclaimer. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Broadcom.
• Longer version here.