Nvidia: The Story To Follow -- SK Hynix -- November 4, 2024

Locator: 48708TECH.

This story is being reported everywhere -- easy to find.

After a fairly deep dive into chips and nodes today over the past 72 hours, there are three variables to watch: the product; the customer; and, time. Someone else came with up that, not me. For an investor, knowing the customer is just as important. Of the three, time may be as critical as the product and the customer.

Time. Moore's law: the number of transistors on a microchip doubles every two years (1965).

Somewhere along the line, "time shrunk." Perhaps it was Apple's product cycle: Apple tended to refresh their cell phones every year. 

We're now seeing the same thing with chips. But now,  one year has now changed to six months.

That brings us to SK Hynix. 

Hynix (Hyundai-roots). Wiki.

SK Hynix Inc. is a South Korean supplier of dynamic random-access memory (DRAM) chips and flash memory chips. SK Hynix is one of the world's largest semiconductor vendors.

Founded as Hyundai Electronics in 1983, SK Hynix was integrated into the SK Group in 2012 following a series of mergers, acquisitions, and restructuring efforts. After being incorporated into the SK Group, SK Hynix became a major affiliate alongside SK Innovation and SK Telecom.

The company's major customers include Microsoft, Apple, Asus, Dell, MSI, HP Inc., and Hewlett Packard Enterprise (formerly Hewlett-Packard). Other products that use Hynix memory include DVD players, cellular phones, set-top boxes, personal digital assistants, networking equipment, and hard disk drives.

From CNBC today:

The big question: where does Micron fit in this equation? Link here.

Northern Israel, South Lebanon, Hezbollah And Iran -- November 4, 2024

Locator: 48707ISRAEL.

Geopolitics: northern Israel and the Lebanese border. The fog is beginning to clear. From Simon Watkins who is always worth listening to:

The logical conclusion to the train of events that was put in place when Iran first gave the go-ahead in June for Hamas’s attacks on Israel on October 7, 2023, is three-fold.

First, Israel will attempt to secure and hold the area in the northern part of its country that abuts southern Lebanon, from which 60,000 or so Israelis who were evacuated last year.

As they were moved from the region due to ongoing missile attacks from Hezbollah, this can only be achieved with the neutralisation of the Iranian-backed group within a certain distance of these Israeli residents. This will require an ongoing big push over many months at minimum from troops, tanks and other support vehicles on the ground in Lebanon.

Legally, this would accord with the terms of UN Resolution 1701 that prohibits the terrorist organisation from operating south of the southernmost stretch of the Litani River that runs 15 to 20 miles north of the Israeli-Lebanon border. This Resolution remains in play, although it has never been properly enforced by the UN and has been completely disregarded by Hezbollah ever since it was put in place.

Second, Israel will push for much more help from the U.S. to keep this Resolution active, and much greater support from it too in leveraging its remaining influence over key Arab states, most notably Saudi Arabia and the UAE, to maintain a distance from the actions of Israel’s most immediate enemies.

And third, Israel will want to destroy several of Iran’s key nuclear sites. Some of this could be done through a combination of technology and human intelligence mechanisms, but some will have to be done through air strikes.

BR With Two New Permits -- November 4, 2024

Locator: 48706B.

WTI: 471.47.

Active rigs: 38.

Two new permits, #41308 and #41309:

• Operator: BR
• Field: Elidah (McKenzie)
• Comments:
• BR has permits for two Sandie wells, SESW 21-151-97, 
• to be sited 510 FSL and 2342 FWL and 496 FSL and 2373 FWL;

Four permits renewed:

• CLR, #34272 - 34275, inclusive: four Durham permits, North Tobacco Garden, McKenzie County.

Jump In Production -- Petro-Hunt -- Little Knife Oil Field -- November 4, 2024

Locator: 48705B.

The well:

• 32170, 1,425, Petro-Hunt, Dolezal 146-97-31D-30-1H, Little Knife, t7/17; cum 499K 9/24; recent production:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	9-2024	26	10277	9964	16970	9463	9198	84
BAKKEN	8-2024	10	770	876	1167	1381	1311	0
BAKKEN	7-2024	31	2498	2512	3735	4097	3879	2
BAKKEN	6-2024	30	2989	2877	4212	5140	4910	21
BAKKEN	5-2024	31	2759	2773	4188	4384	3768	400
BAKKEN	4-2024	30	2665	2721	4715	4338	3586	543
BAKKEN	3-2024	31	2699	2632	5230	4780	3479	1085
BAKKEN	2-2024	29	2477	2519	4539	5937	5308	427
BAKKEN	1-2024	31	3854	3860	5400	11018	10787	15
BAKKEN	12-2023	31	3818	3781	5067	9678	8994	468
BAKKEN	11-2023	30	4320	4398	8092	10698	10409	80
BAKKEN	10-2023	31	4944	4866	5780	8940	8709	15
BAKKEN	9-2023	30	3009	3057	3868	3867	3657	1

Wells of interest:

• 35581, 770, Petro-Hunt, Dolezal 146-97-31C-30-4H, Little Knife, t6/19; cum 299K 9/24;
• 32171, 1,529, Petro-Hunt, Dolezal 146-97-31D-30-2H, Little Knife, t7/17; cum 380K 8/24; off line 9/24;
• 32172, 851, Petro-Hunt, Dolezal 146-97-31D-30-3H, Little Knife, t8/17; cum 305K 9/24; remains on line;

Increased Natural Gas Takeaway For The Bakken -- TC Energy, Kinder Morgan; Bakken Xpress Pipeline -- ND, MT, WY To Colorado -- Novermber 4, 2024

Locator: 48704PIPELINES.

A huge thank you to a reader for sending me this. Link here.

FERC this month cleared a pair of natural gas pipeline projects by TC Energy Corp. and Kinder Morgan Inc. designed to add Bakken Shale takeaway capacity with access to natural gas trading markets in Colorado.

A map of Kinder Morgan's Bakken Xpress Pipeline from North Dakota, Montana and Wyoming to Colorado, with key NGI spot prices for the region listed in a table.

Kinder Morgan’s Wyoming Interstate Co. LLC (WIC) would provide 300,000 Dth/d of firm transportation capacity along its system and three other pipelines in a project dubbed Bakken Xpress. Hess and Oneok Rockies Midstream LLC signed on as shippers during an open season for 430,000 Dth/d in 2023.

Under a certificate approved by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (No. CP23-543), WIC will lease capacity on TC’s Northern Border and Bison pipeline systems and Fort Union Gas Gathering.

Opening up the new route, FERC approved a certificate (No. CP23-544) that would allow TC to reverse the idled Bison pipeline originally built to transport gas from the Powder River Basin in Wyoming into Midwestern markets. TC’s Bison Xpress project would upgrade three Northern Border compressor stations (CS) and modify the Bison system to allow for bidirectional flows.

Fort Union and WIC would ship the Bakken gas further south to the Cheyenne Hub in Colorado.

Bakken Xpress was expected to be in service by March 2026, WIC said in its application.

Holy Mackerel! The Wall Street Journal -- And The Dallas Cowboys -- November 4, 2024

Locator: 48703NFL.

Link here.

Semiconductor Notes -- Linked In -- November 4, 2024

Locator: 48702NODES.

We've been here before: search on the blog, FinFET, GAA, GAAFET.

Semiconductor Notes -- Evolution -- From 2023.

Link here. 

Semiconductor nodes, also known as process nodes or simply "nodes," refer to the size of the transistors and other key components on a semiconductor chip. These nodes represent the smallest dimensions that can be reliably manufactured using a specific process technology. In essence, they define the building blocks of our digital devices, from smartphones and laptops to data centers and beyond.

If we broadly cover the different type of transistors design type based on manufacturing architecture,there are three major types namely Planer, FinFETs & GAA. Planar transistors are the older and simpler technology, they are less suitable for advanced semiconductor nodes due to limitations in scalability and power efficiency. FinFETs and GAA transistors represent newer 3D transistor designs that offer better performance and scalability. FinFETs are currently widely used, while GAA transistors are considered the next step in transistor technology, offering even greater control and efficiency, albeit with more complex manufacturing challenges

Planar transistors vs. finFETs vs. gate-all-around Source

When we talk about Planer type, technology node actually refer to the physical dimensions or minimum feature size of the transistors or gate length. Once we shifted from Planer to new manufacturing architecture of transistors called FinFET & GAA, technology node no longer followed the "actual gate length" and has no physical significance and is just a marketing number. It has an analogical significance to the performance and efficiency in comparison to the previous predecessors.

Much more at the link.

Lessons Learned -- Personal Finance -- November 4, 2024

Locator: 48701ARCHIVES.

Link here.

From the linked article:

I started writing a personal-finance column, Getting Going, for The Wall Street Journal in 1994, and soon earned a reputation as a relentless proponent of indexing. In 2024, at age 61, it seems I’m becoming renowned all over again—for dying.

Yeah, this is a little weird.

Ever since I learned I had cancer and might have just a year to live, I’ve been working like crazy to make sure I bequeath a well-organized estate and leave my family in good financial shape. I’m determined to have as good a death as possible, not least from a financial point of view.

Here are some steps I’m taking.

Personal Monthly Utility Bill -- Electricity -- November 4, 2024

Locator: 48700ELECTRICITY.

Out monthly utility bill. We only have electricity, no natural gas.

Up until about a year ago, I worked very, very hard at conserving electricity. No longer. About a year ago, except for drying clothes at peak energy demand in the summer, I no longer care about our use of electricity. As a wag, I suppose, our monthly electricity bills have increased about 10%. An average shoulder month (spring, autumn) probably went from around $85 to $95?

Most recent bill:

Random Notes -- CPUs, GPUs, Nodes -- Intel -- Nvidia -- And All That Jazz --- November 4, 2024

Locator: 48699NODES.

Reuters headline today:

Tag: 2nm, 2-nm, 2 nm, Apple, M4, process node, chip.

Link here. Beth:

Sixth industrial revolution. 

Notes: here and here.

Intel: betting its entire future on the A18 node. Link here. 

Reminder: the angstrom (Å) is a unit of length equal to ${10}^{-10}$meters, or 0.1 nanometers.

So, 18A = 18Å = 1.8 nm.

2 nm process.

3 nm process.

5 nm process.

Posted earlier:

Posted earlier:

Recently:

**************************************
Links

 Chips, semiconductor: link here.

• Home page for tech: link here.
• The cloud: link here.  
• Streaming: link here. Streaming wars.
• Spatial computing: link here.
• Large language models (ChatGPD, Chatbot): link here.
  
• Generative AI: link here. 
• AI: Apple intelligence.
  
• Apple Silicon: link here.
• chip count updates.
• chip count.
  
• Supercomputers: link here.
• Data centers: link here. 
• System on a chip (SOC): link here.
• Apple Intelligence (AI), short title, Siri: link here. 
• WWDC24: link here.
• Foundries: link here. 
• CoWoS: link here. 
• Nodes: link here.

Nodes

First posted November 4, 2024.

Locator: 48698NODES.

Sixth industrial revolution.

Technology node: link here, undated.

AI generated:|

Also:

From a long time ago. link here. On the blog, here.

Posted earlier: 

Locator: 48699NODES.

Reuters headline today:

Tag: 2nm, 2-nm, 2 nm, Apple, M4, process node, chip.

Intel: betting its entire future on the A18 node. Link here.

2 nm process.

3 nm process.

5 nm process.

Posted earlier:

Posted earlier:

Recently:

**************************************
Links

 Chips, semiconductor: link here.

• Home page for tech: link here.
• The cloud: link here.  
• Streaming: link here. Streaming wars.
• Spatial computing: link here.
• Large language models (ChatGPD, Chatbot): link here.
  
• Generative AI: link here. 
• AI: Apple intelligence.
  
• Apple Silicon: link here.
• chip count updates.
• chip count.
  
• Supercomputers: link here.
• Data centers: link here. 
• System on a chip (SOC): link here.
• Apple Intelligence (AI), short title, Siri: link here. 
• WWDC24: link here.
• Foundries: link here. 
• CoWoS: link here. 
• Nodes: link here.

Cramer's First Hour -- November 4, 2024

Locator: 48697CRAMER.

The two stories that interest me the most from Cramer's first hour? Chips and EVs. 

Let's begin here: link down below. 

Democrats hail electric vehicles as the “future,” but their autotopia keeps getting deferred. Ford and Stellantis this week joined a conga line of auto makers rolling back EV investments amid flagging consumer demand. Has the government ever subsidized a product that loses this much money? 

Ford announced Wednesday that it will cancel production of an electric SUV and delay an electric pickup truck. As a result, it expects to take a $1.9 billion write-down. Believe it or not, this may be less costly than producing EVs that Americans don’t want. Ford lost an astonishing $44,000 on each EV it sold in the second quarter and expects to lose $5 billion on them this year.

Stellantis this week said it would delay investments to retool its shuttered plant in Belvidere, Ill., for EV production. The stated reason: “it is critical that the business case for all investments is aligned with market conditions and our ability to accommodate a wide range of consumer demands.” Imagine that—catering to consumer, rather than government, demands.

Auto makers’ problem is that California and the Biden Administration are forcing them to make increasing numbers of EVs that are piling up on dealer lots. Companies are slashing prices to sell them, resulting in hefty losses. Meantime, Americans are balking at paying more for gas-powered cars, making it harder for the car makers to use those profits to subsidize EVs.

Such losses and cross-business subsidies aren’t financially sustainable even with generous government subsidies. The Biden Administration last year awarded Ford’s joint battery venture a $9.2 billion low-cost loan for three giant electric vehicle battery factories and last month announced a $335 million grant for Stellantis to convert the Belvidere plant to build EVs.

Locator: 48684CRAMER.

Cramer's first hour: a mix of facts, factoids, opinions from various sources -- often not cited -- while listening to Cramer's first hour on CNBC.  

Personal investing: Sophia told me she added more to her position(s) in the Magnificent 7 this morning -- all seven!

The new Dow! Link here.

EVs: by this time -- twenty years into the EV revolution, we should be farther along the s-shaped curve. The EV transition that isn't -- The WSJ.

A dead cow:

**********************************
Disclaimer
Brief Reminder 

• I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
• Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.
  
• If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
• Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia.
• Longer version here.

Manic Monday -- November 4, 2024

Locator: 48696B.

WTI: $71.20.

Tuesday, November 5, 2024: 8 for the month; 68 for the quarter, 582 for the year

• 40639, conf, CLR, Vandeberg 6-35H,
• 40309, conf, Hess, EN-Rice A-155-94-0310H-7,

Monday, November 4, 2024: 6 for the month; 66 for the quarter, 580 for the year

• None.

Sunday, November 3, 2024: 6 for the month; 66 for the quarter, 580 for the year

• 40640, conf, CLR, Christopherson 7-14H,

Saturday, November 2, 2024: 5 for the month; 65 for the quarter, 579 for the year

• 40641, conf, CLR, Vandeberg 7-35HSL,
• 39639, conf, Hess, TI-State-LN-158-95-3635H-1,  

Friday, November 1, 2024: 3 for the month; 63 for the quarter, 577 for the year

• 40293, conf,  Grayson Mill, Hovland 26-35 5H,
• 40291, conf, Grayson Mill, Hovland 26-35 XW 1H,
• 40246, conf, Empire North Dakota LLC, Pike 32-6 1H,

RBN Energy: what's behind the planned closure of Phillips 66's Los Angeles refinery? Archived.

Weak refining margins, rising regulatory compliance costs, softening demand for gasoline and the push for lower-carbon alternatives like batteries and renewable diesel have each contributed to a steady decline in California’s refining capacity the past few years. Now, Phillips 66’s plan to idle its 139-Mb/d Los Angeles Refinery in Q4 2025 will leave the Golden State with only seven conventional refineries producing gasoline, diesel and jet fuel — a couple of dozen fewer than it had 40 years ago. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll put P66’s recent announcement in context and discuss the likelihood of additional refinery closures.

Bottom line:

In the meantime, there’s not much joy in California among either refiners or the tens of millions of customers who use their gasoline, diesel and other products. Retail prices for gasoline and diesel remain well above those in other states and are subject to occasional spikes, given the isolation of California’s refined-products market and the relative fragility of supply. And refiners? They not only face the frequent ire of retail customers, they also are subject to unrelenting scrutiny from California regulators and the possibility — even the likelihood — that still-stricter rules may be on the horizon.