Northern Israel, South Lebanon, Hezbollah And Iran -- November 4, 2024

Locator: 48707ISRAEL.

Geopolitics: northern Israel and the Lebanese border. The fog is beginning to clear. From Simon Watkins who is always worth listening to:

The logical conclusion to the train of events that was put in place when Iran first gave the go-ahead in June for Hamas’s attacks on Israel on October 7, 2023, is three-fold.

First, Israel will attempt to secure and hold the area in the northern part of its country that abuts southern Lebanon, from which 60,000 or so Israelis who were evacuated last year.

As they were moved from the region due to ongoing missile attacks from Hezbollah, this can only be achieved with the neutralisation of the Iranian-backed group within a certain distance of these Israeli residents. This will require an ongoing big push over many months at minimum from troops, tanks and other support vehicles on the ground in Lebanon.

Legally, this would accord with the terms of UN Resolution 1701 that prohibits the terrorist organisation from operating south of the southernmost stretch of the Litani River that runs 15 to 20 miles north of the Israeli-Lebanon border. This Resolution remains in play, although it has never been properly enforced by the UN and has been completely disregarded by Hezbollah ever since it was put in place.

Second, Israel will push for much more help from the U.S. to keep this Resolution active, and much greater support from it too in leveraging its remaining influence over key Arab states, most notably Saudi Arabia and the UAE, to maintain a distance from the actions of Israel’s most immediate enemies.

And third, Israel will want to destroy several of Iran’s key nuclear sites. Some of this could be done through a combination of technology and human intelligence mechanisms, but some will have to be done through air strikes.