Boeing Machinists Reject Contract Offer -- October 23, 2024

Locator: 48647BOEING.

Boeing machinists reject contract offer.  

That didn’t take long: Taylor Farms, Colorado, yellow onions, McDonald’s.

Tesla: earnings. 3Q24. Watch the opening, 8:30 a.m. CDT, tomorrow morning

Compare SCCO with FCX: the latter is the favorite of "Fast Money" panelists.

M4 Apple: link here.

Apple: can now connect to satellite but you have to hold the phone just right.

Amazon Prime: across the US, save 10 cents per gallon.

Those SMRs: good luck. Link here.

MRO With Five More Permits In Bailey / Lake Ilo; CLR With Six More Permits -- Scout Energy Will Be Re-Entering A 60-Year-Old Monster Well -- October 23, 2024

Locator: 48646B.

WTI: $71.51.

Active rigs: 40.

Tuesday, October 22, 2024: five new permits, #41263 - #41266, inclusive --

• Operator: MRO
• Fields: Bailey (Dunn); Lake Ilo (Dunn)
• Comments:
• MRO has permits for five wells, SWSW 9-145-93, 
• to be sited 615 FSL and between 555 FWL and 915 FWL: Macy, Soule, Nadine, Odenborg, and Sailer;

Four permits renewed:

• CLR, two Charlotte permits, a Chicago permit, and an Akron permit, all in Banks oil field, McKenzie County;

One producing well (a DUC) reported as completed:

• 40544, 1,038, EOG, Wayzetta 409-1336H,

Wednesday, October 23, 2024: seven new permits, #41267 - #41273, inclusive -- 

• Operators: CLR (6); Slawson
• Fields: Grinnell (Williams County); West Capa (Williams); Ellsworth (McKenzie)
• Comments:
• Slawson has a permit for an Atlas well, NENW 28-149-100, 
• to be sited 445 FNL and 2245 FWL;
• CLR has permits for three Michael State wells and three HM Hove wells, NENW 16-154-96; 
• to be sited 305 FNL and between 1550 FWL and 1710 FWL; the Michael State wells run north to south; the HM Hove wells run south to north.

Approved for horizontal re-entry:

• 3939, Scout Energy, Medora Heath-Madison Unit 06, NWSE 12-139-102, Medora oil field (Billings County);

Six permits renewed:

• Foundation Energy Management (5): three Gracie State permits; two Cerkoney permits; all in Billings County;
• Neptune Operating: Foster 4-9-16 2H, lot 3, section 4-152-104, Briar Creek, Williams County;

Four producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

• 36061, 1,252, CLR, Gordon Federal 20-8H1, Dunn County;
• 36063, 1,351, CLR, Gordon Federal 22-8H1, Dunn County;
• 36064, 1,926, CLR, Gordon Federal 23-8H, Dunn County;
• 40602, 526, True Oil, Slash Federal 21-4 4-9 TF2H, McKenzie County;

Well of interest: approved for horizontal re-entry -- a monster well (monster wells are occasionally tracked here)

• 3939, Scout Energy, Medora Heath-Madison Unit 06, NWSE 12-139-102, Medora oil field (Billings County); last produced, 6/05; t12/65; cum 1.474999 million bbls (Heath) and 116,193 bbls Madison; from 1965 - 2005 = 40 years; this well was acquired by Scout Energy from Hess in late, 2018, along with about 25 other wells in the same general area. A screenshot of a portion of the file report from back in 2002:
  
  
  
  
  Every well has a story and this well has many. Can you imagine all the roughnecks that have been involved with this well, and all the truckers who have visited this pad since 1965 -- almost 60 years ago. For old-times a lot of information on this screenshot that should bring back a lot of memories: 

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Lodgepole Reef Wells: Flashback 

Unrelated to the well above, but the location of the well above reminded me of the Lodgepole reef wells in the same general area.

See this post. 

Late Morning Trading -- AAPL Plunges -- The Sixth Indusrial Revolution -- October 23, 2024

Locator: 48645AAPL.

I'm not following the analysts' take on this -- AAPL plunging -- but it certainly suggests the ARM/QCOM feud is spooking investors. 

Of course, "all" the tech stocks are down today. NVDA is down almost 3%. CNBC attributes it to Treasury yields moving much higher, so that's fine. But for Apple, lots of bad news today, including headline story on Vision Pro though I don't really know what that means. So, I guess it's all about the 10-year Treasury. 

Link here:

I tried out the only M4 device Apple has on the market right now (at least I think that's correct; needs to be fact-checked) -- the M4 iPad Pro. At the Apple store over the weekend. It was absolutely incredible. The transition from M1 / M2 / M3 to M4 has been incredibly fast. Very exciting.

So, some charts. First, the 10-year moving much higher today:

I don't even know what to make of that. 

One day and one year:

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The Book Page 

How To Hide An Empire: A History of the Greater United States, Daniel Immerwahr, c. 2019. 

An incredible book; highly recommend. Just ordered from Amazon. Again, look at how far prices have fallen. Recurring theme on Amazon; also local grocery store.

 

The book is divided into two parts. A quick survey suggests, the US empire:

Part 1: from the 1776 revolution to December 7, 1941.
Part 2: from December 8, 1941, to the "birther conspiracy -- McCain, Palin, and Obama.

Absolutely fascinating book.

Two big takeaways with regard to WWII:

• it was all about logistics (everyone knows that) but the author failed in using the better analogy: Amazon (AMZN);
• the ten years peri-WWII was the true third industrial revolution

See wiki, as currently understood and generally accepted:

• first industrial revolution: 1760 - 1840; ended in the middle of the 19th century; inventions; advancements in textiles; age of inventions;
  
• second industrial revolution: advancements in manufacturing processes; 1870 - 1914 (beginning of WWI); age of mass manufacturing;
  
• third industrial revolution: beginning in 1947, information age; computer coming out of WWII; Colossus, Bletchley Park;
  
• fourth industrial revolution: rapid technological advancement beginning in the late 1990s; the Age of Apple (or the personal computer).
  

Much better:

• first industrial revolution: ended in the middle of the 19th century; age of invention;
  
• second industrial revolution: 1870 - 1914 (beginning of WWI); age of Henry Ford, mass manufacturing;
  
• third industrial revolution: peri-WWI -- the age of conventional manufacturing and logistics; rise of synthetics and the oil and gas industry; age of Standard Oil (or the age of John D Rockefeller);
  
• fourth industrial revolution: beginning in 1947, information age; the computer age (or the age of Turing);
  
• fifth industrial revolution: rapid technological advancement beginning in the late 1990s -- maybe it began in 1984 with the (in)famous Apple commercial; age of Apple (or the age of Steve Jobs)
  

The question is whether "we" have entered the sixth industrial revolution: Nvidia blades; LDCs; a return to nuclear energy to meet energy needs of the information age.

It's hard for me to accept that the need for nuclear energy to meet the needs of LDCs does not signify a new industrial revolution.

Winter Reading Program Begins -- Tracked Elsewhere -- Update -- October 23, 2024

Locator: 48644BOOKS.

 Colossus: Bletchley Park's Greatest Secret, Paul Gannon, c. 2006.

The Secret History of Sharks, John Long, c. 2024

India: A History, John Keay, c. 2000, 2010.

The Quakers in America, Thomas D Hamm, Columbia Contemporary American Religion Series, c. 2003. Really, really surprisingly good. Would have liked a bit more history of the Quakers during the US Civil War.

Stanford Universtiy: A Campus Guide, Richard Joncas, David J. Neuman, and Paul V. Turner, c.1999

The New Annotated Frankenstein, Mary Shelley, edited by Leslie S. Klinger, c. 2017.

From today:

• most excited about reading Sharks and History of India.
• I've pretty much finished my first-time through Quakers. Will read parts of it again. Led to this post. 
• Sharks was bought for Sophia; she wants to be a marine biologist and study at UC-San Diego. I'm hoping to convince her to study in Australia. More on that later, perhaps.
• but the most exciting because it will be the most challenging: the History of India by John Keay. Having read the first 30 pages or so, it's going to be a great book. It will be interesting to talk this history with my Indian friends.
  

2024 Summer Reading Program: here. The list is complete.

2024 - 2025 Winter Reading Program: here. In progress.

CLR Starts Reporting Its Doe Wells In Murphy Creek -- October 23, 2024

Locator: 48643B.

WTI: $71.38.

Thursday, October 24, 2024: 47 for the month; 47 for the quarter, 561 for the year

• 40595, conf, CLR, Doe 4-23H,
• 40590, conf, Oasis, Truax State Federal 5398 43-9 2B,
• 40220, conf, Silver Hill Energy Operating, NM 158-92-1-19-2MBH,
• 38205, conf, Petroshale, Bear chase North 3MBH,

Wednesday, October 23, 2024: 43 for the month; 43 for the quarter, 557 for the year

• 40594, conf, CLR, Doe 3-23H,
• 40267, conf, Silver Hll Energy, NM 158-2-18-19-10MBH,
• 40212, conf, Enerplus, Olson 146-97-3-10-2H, see below;
  
• 40211, conf, Enerplus, Olson 146-97-3-10-1H-WLL, see below;
  

RBN Energy: Sandy's legacy a reminder that East Coast also faces hurricane risks.

As the Atlantic hurricane season churns out storms that regularly threaten the U.S. Gulf Coast, it can be easy to forget that the East Coast — an important refining center and refined-products market — is not immune from their impact. A dozen years ago this month, Superstorm Sandy roared ashore in New Jersey, wreaking havoc with storm surges and fierce winds that stretched for 1,000 miles. While the East Coast lacks the Gulf Coast’s concentration of energy infrastructure, it is home to the critical New York Harbor (NYH) market. In today’s RBN blog, we will examine how storms have affected the refining sector on the East Coast.

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The Two Enerplus Olson Wells Being Reported Today

Reminder: Enerplus is now part of the most compelling story in the Bakken -- Chord Energy -- Oasis, Whiting, and Enerplus. See blog's disclaimer.

Two of the new Enerplus Olson wells:

• 40212:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	8-2024	25	20953	20979	31381	26057	25596	436
BAKKEN	7-2024	31	17177	17163	29820	23462	23219	226
BAKKEN	6-2024	26	21186	21259	32243	32507	32379	109
BAKKEN	5-2024	28	37199	37286	61678	49830	49588	225
BAKKEN	4-2024	6	8032	7689	14268	7641	6968	673

• 40211:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	8-2024	7	4446	4512	15074	6119	6012	103
BAKKEN	7-2024	31	21729	21721	38846	34573	34214	337
BAKKEN	6-2024	26	22926	23076	29043	33993	33858	114
BAKKEN	5-2024	26	44511	44688	54187	60776	60486	275
BAKKEN	4-2024	8	16451	15749	30205	22134	20165	1969

The Eisen Hour -- Abbreviated Edition -- October 23, 2024

Locator: 48642CRAMER.

New "word" for the day: "slivered onions." Has been added to the "drinking game" bingo board for the NDSU fraternities.

The Fed: this is pretty cool -- one analyst's view:

• the Fed has "given up" on fighting inflation
• that was one way of phrasing it (negative spin); could have said Fed now focused on economy (positive spin)
  
• did agree that the Fed is now interested in growing the economy; growing the US out of debt problem; 
• a lot of pressure to maintain high levels of LNG / oil exports; re-shoring tech industry
  
• happy with a 2-handle
• will gladly see inflation at high end of "2" (i.e. 2. 6 - 3.0 inflation rate)
• why would the Fed accept this: will help "grow" the US out of its debt problem -- an interesting take
• Sara is on top of her game as usual: was able to remind the guest of his previous views; amazing
• bottom line: not particularly concerned; headlines not surprising

ARM/QCOM: after the bombshell announcement last night (part 1 and part 2), eager to see how this plays out; won't know for quite some time, of course:

• Cramer: going with ARM
• ARM says it can do what QCOM is doing
• AAPL investors seem unfazed
• if that's accurate, ARM says it can do what QCOM is doing, the question becomes, how fast can QCOM ramp up to meet demand?
  

Cramer's first hour:

• most was spent on Boeing and SBUX, neither of which interest me
• Faber tried ot put together the QCOM / ARM story but overcome by noise from the trading floor
• appears Faber-Carl-Cramer not much interested in the story

Existing home sales: September results, blah, blah, blah

Early market trading: blah, blah, blah, but if anything, energy and utilities doing okay.

McDonald's: major drag on the Dow.

• CEO's video response seemed a bit disingenuous when I first heard it -- natural reaction, I'm sure.
  
• having said that, it's been several days since the last case reported; the CEO's statement may be exactly "right." 
• Sara this morning didn't add anything we didn't know last night, so that's good news
  
• analysis:
• McDonald's: supply chain issue; onions implicated; nothing to do with McDonald's per se
• the question: were the implicated onions only shipped to McDonald's? Most likely.
  
• Chipotle, E. coli, 2015: related to processes / procedures in the kitchen
• fairly common food pathogen with outbreaks not uncommon; 200,000 cases annually in US
• the number of McDonald's cases appears not have increased overnight

The BIG story today, per Sara: rising 10-year Treasury. 

Sara: a blah day. 

Mideast: huge stories and very little coverage --

• is Tyre being carpet-bombed?
• has Hezbollah's newest leader already been taken out -- if so, he lasted a week or so

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Disclaimer
Brief Reminder 

• I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
• Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.
  
• If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
• Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia.
• Longer version here.