The Million Dollar Way (The Bakken Oil Blog): 10/22/24

Tuesday, October 22, 2024

Looking For That October Surprise? We Got It! ARM --> QCOM --> ANDROID / AAPL / EVERYTHING EXCEPT CHINESE?-- Part 2 -- What's It All About? October 22, 2024

Locator: 48641TECH.

This is part 2. Part 1 is located here.

Nvidia likely to report earnings November 19, 2024. Link here.

Back to QCOM / ARM. But a great proxy for tracking the rift between QCOM and ARM is tracking share price of Nvidia.

Link here.

Looking For That October Surprise? We Got It! ARM --> QCOM --> ANDROID / AAPL / EVERYTHING EXCEPT CHINESE?-- Part 1 -- Background -- October 22, 2024

Locator: 48640TECH.

This is part 1. Part 2 is located here.

From wiki:

Is this the smoking gun?

This is how this all started earlier tonight:

Link to The Verge:

Temu, Schein, Amazon Discount -- October 22, 2024

Locator: 48639RETAIL.

Link here.

CLR's Recently Proposed Eight 1920-Acre Standup Spacing Units -- October 22, 2024

Locator: 48638CLR.

November, 2024, NDIC Hearing Dockets, briefly, this is a case, not a permit:

31352, CLR, Little Knife-Bakken and/or Charlie Bob-Bakken, 32 wells, McKenzie County.

Complete case narrative:

Application of Continental Resources, Inc. for an order for the Little Knife-Bakken Pool and/or Charlie Bob-Bakken Pool, McKenzie County, ND, as follows: (i) create and establish three overlapping 1920-acre spacing units comprised of Sections 2, 11 and 14; Sections 17, 20 and 29; and, Sections 21, 28 and 33, T.145N., R.98W., authorizing the drilling of a total not to exceed four horizontal wells on each proposed overlapping 1920-acre spacing unit; and, (ii) create and establish five 1920-acre spacing units comprised of Sections 3, 10 and 15; Sections 4, 9 and 16; Sections 18, 19 and 30; Sections 22, 27 and 34; and, Sections 23, 26 and 35, T.145N., R.98W., authorizing the drilling of a total not to exceed four horizontal wells on each proposed 1920-acre spacing unit and such further relief as appropriate.

The map:

McDonald's -- If You Want To Know How This Story Plays Out, Review The Chipotle Story Of A Few Years Ago -- October 22, 2024

Locator: 48637MCDONALDS.

Tag: E. coli, Chipotle

Google it.

Here's the GoogleAI take on that story:

No deaths associated with the Chitpotle outbreak? I think that's accurate. Already one death associated with McDonald's outbreak. Likely to be at least a coupe more based on early reports.

NDIC Hearing Dockets For November, 2024, Have Posted

Locator: 48636DOCKETS.

November, 2024, hearing dockets.

Link here.

The NDIC hearing dockets are tracked here.

As usual this is done very quickly and using shorthand for my benefit. There will be factual and typographical errors on this page. Do not quote me on any of this. It's for my personal use to help me better understand the Bakken. Do not read it. If you do happen to read it, do not make any investment, financial, job, relationship, or travel plans based on anything you read here or think you may have read here. If this stuff is important to you, and I doubt that it is, but if it is, go to the source. These are cases, not permits.

Thursday, November 21, 2024, a single well, converting an injection well to be utilized for fracture injection into the Dakota Formation in the K T Enterprises, file #37789. Link here.

Thursday, November 21, 2024, link here. Case #31358, see below.

Wedneday, November 20, 2024, link here. Has been removed.

Wednesday, November 20, 2024, a single case. SWD.

Thursday, November 21, 2024
Ten pages

These are cases, not permits:

31349, Grayson, Mill, Alger-Bakken, two wells, Mountrail County.
31350, Zavanna, Glass-Bluff-Bakken; seven wells; McKenzie County.
31351, Koda Resources, SWD.
31352, CLR, Little Knife-Bakken and/or Charlie Bob-Bakken, 32 wells, McKenzie County.
31353, CLR, Ranch Creek-Bakken, four wells, McKenzie County.
31354, CLR, Sanish-Bakken, one well, McKenzie County.
31355, CLR, East Fork-Bakken, one well, Williams County.
31356, Hunt, Bluffton-Bakken, eight wells, Divide County.
31357, Spotted Hawk Development, Van Hook and/or Deep Water Creek Bay-Bakken, eight wells, McLean, Dunn counties.
31358, KT Enterprise, conversion of a Minnelusa Group fracture injection well to be utilized for fracture injection into the Dakota Formation in the KT Enterprises file #37789 (SWD?)
31359, Iron Oil Operating, pooling;
31360, Iron Oil Operating, pooling;
31361, Iron Oil Operating, pooling;
31362, Iron Oil Operating, pooling;
31363, Iron Oil Operating, pooling;
31364, Iron Oil Operating, pooling;
31365, Iron Oil Operating, pooling;
31366, Iron Oil Operating, pooling;
31367, Iron Oil Operating, pooling;
31368, Iron Oil Operating, pooling;
31369, Grayson Mill, pooling,
31370, Grayson Mill, pooling,
31371, Grayson Mill, pooling,
31372, Grayson Mill, Alger-Bakken, nine wells on an existing 1280-acre unit, Mountrail County;
31373, Silver Hill Energy, commingling
31374, Zavanna, Stockyard Creek-Bakken, seven on an existing 1920-acre unit, sections 24 / 25 / 36-154-99, Williams County;
31375, Zavanna, pooling;
31376, Zavanna, pooling;
31377, Hunt Oil, pooling;
31378, Hunt Oil, pooling;
31379, Hunt Oil, Ross-Bakken, five wells on each of three 1280-acre spacing units. fifteen wells total; Mountrail County;
31380, CLR, pooling,
31381, CLR, pooling,
31382, CLR, pooling,
31383, CLR, pooling,
31384, CLR, pooling,
31385, CLR, pooling,
31386, CLR, pooling,
31387, CLR, pooling,

Wednesday, November 20, 2024
Ten pages

These are cases, not permits:

31318, Oasis, Cottonwood-Bakken, one well, Mountrail County.
31319, Oasis, Midway, Tioga, Beaver Lodge and/or West Bank-Bakken, five wells; Williams County.
31320, Murex, Tioga-Bakken, twelve wells, Williams County.
31321, Kraken, Green Lake-Bakken, one well, Williams County,
31322, BR, Elidah-Bakken, one well; McKenzie County
31323, Petro-Hunt, Elm Tree and/or Phelps Bay-Bakken, amend field rules for distance from spacing line; McKenzie County;
31324, Dakota Energy, Juno, Bounty School, and Paulson-Bakken/Three Forks pools, six 1920-acre spacing units; four wells each; 24 wells total; Divide County
31325, Phoenix Operating, Big Stone-Bakken, one well; Williams County;
31326, Phoenix Operating, Skabo-Bakken, one well; Divide County;
31327, Phoenix Operating, Skabo-Bakken, one well; Divide County;
31328, Oasis, pooling;
31329, Oasis, pooling
31330, Oasis, pooling
31331, Oasis, pooling
31332, Enerplus, commingling;
31333, Enerplus, commingling;
31334, Petro-Hunt, pooling,
31335, Petro-Hunt, pooling;
31336, Petro-Hunt, pooling;
31337, Neptune, commingling,
31338, Neptune, commingling,
31339, Neptune, commingling,
31340, Neptune, commingling,
31341, BR, pooling,
31342, BR, commingling,
31343, BR, commingling,
31344, Hess, pooling,
31345, Hess, pooling,
31346, Hess, commingling,
31347, Hess, commingling,
31348, Hess, commingling,

Is GM's Barra An Outlier -- Is She On The Wrong Side Of History -- Or Simply A Genius? October 22, 2024

Locator: 48635EVS.

Start with GM's 3Q24 earnings. Incredibly good. Gives them "room to run" on EVs.

Meanwhile, others, which takes you to this link:

Volkswagen reported mediocre first half 2024 financial results with the manufacturer indicating it cannot rule out potential plant closures in Germany, analysts at Morningstar DBRS, a global credit ratings business, said in a research note titled "Are Electric Vehicles Short-Circuiting? Auto Manufacturers Revise Electrification Strategies After Slowing Demand."

However, the analysts also said that in accordance with with "tightening environmental legislation across most jurisdictions worldwide, EVs remain poised to eventually represent much of the global automotive fleet, with automotive original equipment manufacturers highly relying on EVs to attain their future environmental targets."

In addition to the Volkswagen example, Ford Motor Company recently said it would cancel its planned three-row all electric sport-utility vehicles along with other strategic electrification updates.

And General Motors has lowered its planned 2024 EV production to range from 200,000 units to 250,000 units, down from an initially planned range of 250,000 units to 300,000 units, according to the report.

GM also said it will delay the expected launch of the first EV model for its Buick brand.

One of the challenges the automotive industry faces is that after an early wave of EV adoption from buyers drawn to the new technology, higher prices for EVs than traditional internal combustion engine models have prevented buyers from purchasing EVs.

"With EV sales to early adopters now seemingly exhausted, EVs are struggling to maintain ongoing sales momentum among mainstream consumers," the report said. In other words, we've not reached the tipping point, or said another way, we're still not in the upslope of the "S-curve."

EV purchases also remain closely tied to the availability of subsidies, according to the analysis, which noted that "it is not surprising to observe that, across many markets, the slowing demand for EVs has followed a decline in applicable subsidies and incentives in these regions." Europe has had their fill of EV subsidies, for example.

Despite some recent price reductions by automakers, on average an EV is $10,000 to $15,000 more expensive than a comparable conventional ICE vehicle, although this is less of an issue in China, where over 60% of EVs are priced below conventional vehicles, according to the International Energy Agency's World Energy Outlook 2024.

Many US states continue rolling out subsidies to help decrease the price discrepancy between EVs and ICE vehicles. For example, New Jersey recently offered incentives of up to $4,000 for the purchase or lease of a new battery EV and up to $250 for buying an eligible EV charger.

Range anxiety also remains an issue, according to Morningstar, particularly at lower temperatures when batteries can be less efficient.

At the end of the day, the real headwinds:

the concept of being tethered; and,
Americans experience with batteries.

Much more at the link.

So, all things being equal, we can follow F vs GM, mano a mano.

Batteries For EVs

Locator: 48634BATTERIES.

October 22, 2024: GM, 3Q24 earnings --

Let's look at GM's EVs:

CEO says company on track to meet 2024 EV production and profitability targets
still expects to manufacture 200,000 EVs in 2024
through the end of September, GM has sold about 70,000 EVs in US

EV production and sales "don't match exactly."

assumption: GM doesn't sell more EVs than it manufactures

GM press release: 3Q24 -- another record quarter of EV sales;

32,095 EV delivered -- that's a record! Wow.

total vehicle sales: 659,601 vehicles
other sources:

battery cost, about $100 / kWh earlier this year
GM may be closer to $90 / kWh now (3Q24)
goal to mid-$80 by next year ("by next year" = end 2024?)
goal to low $70 "in a couple of years"

ICE (GoogleAI):

average cost of replacing an ICE engine: $2,500 - $5,000
average cost of replacing an automatic transmission for an ICE: $2,500 - $5,000
suggesting: GM cost for powertrain for an ICE is about $8,000, tops

average GM kWH battery:

Costco Connection -- October 22, 2024

Locator: 48633COSTCO.

Link here.

Costco Connection.

From the linked article:

The media business might be in free fall, but in Issaquah, Washington, the merriest band of magazine makers in America drives to Costco headquarters and sets about producing a monthly print periodical that is delivered to more households across the United States than Better Homes & Gardens, The New Yorker, and The Atlantic combined.

Subscription price? $65 / year.

And it’s growing. Each month, 15.4 million copies of Costco Connection are mailed out to “executive” members, who pay double the yearly membership fee of $65 for the magazine and other perks. (Another 300,000 are distributed via Costco warehouses.) Its reach is so vast that Costco Connection is now the nation’s third largest magazine by print circulation, behind AARP: The Magazine and The AARP Bulletin.

You, perhaps, had no idea. But Oprah did. Ms. Winfrey has no shortage of press opportunities, but she has made time for Costco Connection. So have Tom Hanks and Bruce Springsteen, recognizing there are few more enviable placements for a person with something to sell than the cover of a publication linked to a store where nearly one-third of U.S. consumers shop.

According to Costco, Connection readers have an average household income of $179,000, and 92.6 percent of them own a home — no doubt stocked with Kirkland Signature paper towels, pounds of fish sticks and leaning towers of canned tuna. Over 94 percent of Connection readers report having confidence in the magazine’s content.

For the archives.

Warren Buffett -- BRK -- BofA Update -- October 22, 2024

Locator: 48632BUFFET.

Tag: BofA.

From GoogleAI:

The Sara Eisen Hour -- Philip Morris -- Yeah, That Philip Morris -- Is Up 8% -- October 22, 2024

Locator: 48631SARA.

Market cap: AAPL had too much of a lead at the close yesterday, but with NVDA up today and AAPL down $2.20 in early morning trading, Nvidia's market cap could come close today to inching ahead of Apple today. [Later, NVDA turned negative and AAPL, though negative, has trimmed its losses.

Philip Morris (PM) is up 8% today. One wonders how many director on the board smoke and whether the current CEO smokes cigarettes. Its P/E is exactly in line with the overall market: 22.

GM: up 8% today! Finally GM is being mentioned! Wasn't mentioned in Cramer's first hour. Now mentioned in Sara's first hour. GM's P/E still has a 5-handle. Absolutely amazing. Speaks volumes. If you can find, see Phil LeBeau's segment on GM from this morning on CNBC. Barron's take on GM's 3Q24 earnings. Curious. Let's look at EVs:

CEO says company on track to meet 2024 EV production and profitability targets
still expects to manufacture 200,000 EVs in 2024
through the end of September, GM has sold about 70,000 EVs in US

EV production and sales "don't match exactly."

assumption: GM doesn't sell more EVs than it manufactures

GM press release: 3Q24 -- another record quarter of EV sales;

32,095 EV delivered -- that's a record! Wow.

total vehicle sales: 659,601 vehicles
other sources:

battery cost, about $100 / kWh earlier this year
GM may be closer to $90 / kWh now (3Q24)
goal to mid-$80 by next year ("by next year" = end 2024?)
goal to low $70 "in a couple of years"

ICE (GoogleAI):

average cost of replacing an ICE engine: $2,500 - $5,000
average cost of replacing an automatic transmission for an ICE: $2,500 - $5,000
suggesting: GM cost for powertrain for an ICE is about $8,000, tops

average GM kWH battery:

Continuing, GM's 3Q24 earnings:

the free cash story phenomenal:
projected by Wall Street: $3 billion for 3Q24
actual, for 3Q24: $5.8 billion
full-year guidance, midpoint: now, $13 billion, up from prior guidance of $10.5 billion

Sara Eisen hour: a mix of facts, factoids, opinions from various sources -- often not cited -- while listening to Sara Eisen's first hour on CNBC.

First thing Sara mentioned: India -- world's fastest growing economy, latest quarter, link here. See "the book page" below the fold below.

Good, bad, indifferent: this is what the data shows -- with regard to Trump / Harris -- I'm agnostic. Absolutely no interest in the outcome. As a spectator, most interested in the process. But this is what the data shows: a Harris-Walz win will be great news for investors.

Having said that: one talking head on CNBC suggests that in the last couple of days the tide has turned. The Trump trade is growing -- hedge funds are putting their money in companies that would benefit from a Trump win, putting money where their mouth is -- or at least putting money where the internal polling suggests to put it.

US economy -- the resilience of the American consumer. Exhibit A and B: US ports and house foreclosures -- see graphics below.

Ports: an update on the LA-Long Beach ports. Liz Sonders. Strong, strong, US economy.

Home foreclosures. Liz Sonders. Maybe I'm missing something, this seems incredible and certainly no one was expecting. Not clear whether "total loans" is "total loans" or whether it's only "home loans." If it's "total loans," wow -- at it's worse only 4.5%. Surgeons would know about what I'm talking.

Dot's Pretzels: did Hershey destroy the brand name by introducing a half doze or so differently-flavored pretzels. IYKYK. But, wow, the "original" Dot's Pretzels are simply the best pretzels ever. Period. Dot. Pun intended.

****************************
The Book Page

I ordered this book from Amazon yesterday; should arrive tomorrow. Again, note the price cut. I'm seeing these price cuts across the board at Amazon. These are significant price cuts, 20% to 40%.

Meanwhile, at Barnes and Noble, no cut in price:

**********************************
Disclaimer
Brief Reminder

I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.
See disclaimer. This is not an investment site.
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.
If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.
Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.
And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia.
Longer version here.

Cramer's First Hour -- Part 2 -- October 22, 2024

Locator: 48630CRAMER.

Cramer's first hour: a mix of facts, factoids, opinions from various sources -- often not cited -- while listening to Cramer's first hour on CNBC.

David Faber, Carl and Jim.

Personal Investing: added to Sophia's SCHB position.

Fed rates: some are now suggesting a 50-basis-point cut is almost guaranteed.

Presidential election: unless it's a blowout, the year (2025) will be a nightmare -- Cramer.

GM: Expectations. Cramer hasn't mentioned, so I will. Earnings, 3Q24. Links everywhere, here's one.

Jobs vs Cook: there are iconic photos of the Apple CEOs, especially of Jobs. This, unfortunately, is not an iconic photo. This is Vogue. But the story is compelling.

Fight's on! QCOM vs AAPL (Qualcomm vs Apple).

see this post, September 11, 2024;
chips, August 10, 2024.
this is the update; be sure to read the social comments -- brings up other issues.

**********************************
Disclaimer
Brief Reminder

I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.
See disclaimer. This is not an investment site.
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.
Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.
And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia.
Longer version here.

Taco Tuesday -- Enerplus Reporting Some Nice Olson Wells This Week -- October 22, 2024

Locator: 48629B.

WTI: $71.18

Wednesday, October 23, 2024: 43 for the month; 43 for the quarter, 557 for the year

40594, conf, CLR, Doe 3-23H,
40267, conf, Silver Hll Energy, NM 158-2-18-19-10MBH,
40212, conf, Enerplus, Olson 146-97-3-10-2H,
40211, conf, Enerplus, Olson 146-97-3-10-1H-WLL,

Tuesday, October 22, 2024: 39 for the month; 39 for the quarter, 553 for the year

None.

Look at these Enerplus Olson wells:

40212, conf, Enerplus, Olson 146-97-3-10-2H, Little Knife:

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
8-2024	20979	25596
7-2024	17163	23219
6-2024	21259	32379
5-2024	37286	49588
4-2024	7689	6968

40211, conf, Enerplus, Olson 146-97-3-10-1H-WLL, Little Knife,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
8-2024	4512	6012
7-2024	21721	34214
6-2024	23076	33858
5-2024	44688	60486
4-2024	15749	20165

RBN Energy: oil producers focus on high-grading crude portfolio as gas price impact is minimal.

The upcoming presidential election has filled the airways with discussions around crucial issues, some with dramatic short-term (yet highly variable) impacts and others that will play out over several years. The impact of the critical short-term issue facing oil and gas producers today — historically low natural gas prices — varies depending on the structure of individual company portfolios. In today’s RBN blog, the last of our four-part series, we analyze the effect of lower gas prices on the revenues, cash flows, investment, leverage and cash allocation of Oil-Weighted E&Ps and discuss how they are adapting.

In part 1 of this series on recent financial results from the 40 large U.S. E&Ps we monitor, we said their pre-tax operating profits rebounded slightly in Q2 2024 to $12.25/boe ($16.6 billion), up 1.8% from the $12.04/boe they reported in Q1 2024. The group as a whole outperformed during the turbulent half-decade from 2015-19 but has generally fallen short of results in the post-COVID years. The primary reason was that low natural gas realizations nearly offset the impact of higher liquids realizations for the entire group.

Cramer's First Hour -- Part 1 -- October 22, 2024

Locator: 48628CRAMER.

Cramer's first hour: a mix of facts, factoids, opinions from various sources -- often not cited -- while listening to Cramer's first hour on CNBC.

David Faber, Carl and Jim.

Cramer: earnings flood; many companies to follow. Doesn't even mention GM's terrific quarter.

GM: earnings. Not even in the first ten minutes. Wow.

Cramer: missing piece of the puzzle -- why has Kenvue not partnered with Amazon? One sells products; one delivers products same day. A natural match.

NVDA: OMG! NVDA falling today in pre-market trading. It the AI revolution over? NVDA down 42 cents in pre-market trading!

**********************************
Disclaimer
Brief Reminder

I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.
See disclaimer. This is not an investment site.
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.
Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.
And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia.
Longer version here.