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Wednesday, August 28, 2024

Grayson Mill -- Haystack Butte -- The Bice Wells -- August 28, 2024

Locator: 48477BICE.

The maps:


The wells

  • 33136, IA/918, Grayson Mill, Bice 148-97-18-17-1H Haystack Butte, t4/18; cum 277K 5/24; off line;
  • 33137, IA/1,208, Grayson Mill, Bice 148-97-18-17-2H Haystack Butte, t4/18; cum 318K 5/24; off line;
  • 33138, IA/1,189, Grayson Mill, Bice 148-97-18-17-3H Haystack Butte, t4/18; cum 303K 5/24; off line;
  • 33139, IA/1,418, Grayson Mill, Bice 148-97-18-17-4H Haystack Butte, t4/18; cum 317K 5/24; off line;
  • 33140, PNC, Ovintive, Bice 148-97-18-17-5H, Haystack Butte,
  • 40848, conf, Grayson Mill, Bice 18-176TFH, Haystack Butte,
  • 40849, conf, Grayson Mill, Bice 18-177H, Haystack Butte,
  • 40850, conf, Grayson Mill, Bice 18-178TFH, Haystack Butte,


  • 40796, conf, Grayson Mill, Bice 18-17F 9H, Haystack Butte,
  • 40886, conf, Grayson Mill, Bice 18-17F 10TFH, Haystack Butte,
  • 40887, conf, Grayson Mill, Bice 18-17F XS 1TFH, Haystack Butte,
  • 40888, conf, Grayson Mill, Bice 18-17F XS 2H, Haystack Butte,


BR -- Three Rigs -- Elidah Oil Field -- Kellogg Ranch, Nordeng -- August 28, 2024

Locator: 48476KELLOGG.

The maps:


 



The wells:

  • 40296, conf, BR, Kellogg Ranch 2A TFH, Elidah,
  • 40200, conf, BR, Nordeng 2A MBH, Elidah,
  • 40295, conf, BR, Kellogg Ranch 2B TFH, Elidah,
  • 40294, conf, BR, Nordeng 2B TFH, Elidah,


  • 36622, conf, BR, West Kellogg 2A-UTFH, Elidah,
  • 36621, conf, BR, West Kellogg 2B-UTFH, Elidah,
  • 36620, conf, BR, West Kellogg 2C-MBH-B, Elidah,
  • 40857, conf, BR, West Kellogg 4A-UTFH-B, Elidah,
  • 40866, conf, BR, West Kellog 4B-MBH-B, Elidah,
  • 40858, conf, BR, West Kellogg 4C-UTFH-B, Elidah,
  • 40859, conf, BR, West Ranch 4D-MBH-ULW-B, Elidah,

 

  • 37664, conf, BR, Kellogg Ranch 1A TFH, Elidah,
  • 37665, conf, BR, Kellogg Ranch 1B MBH, Elidah,
  • 37666, conf, BR, Nordeng 1A MBH, Elidah,
  • 37667, conf, BR, Nordeng 1B TFH, Elidah,

End-Of-Day Bakken Report -- Seven New Permits; Two Permits Renewed; One DUC Reported As Completed -- August 28, 2024

Locator: 48475B.

WTI: $74.52.

Active rigs: 41. It's been a long time since we've seen 41 active rigs.

Seven new permits, #41073 - #41079, inclusive:

  • Operators: Hess (4), Silver Hill Energy (2), BR
  • Fields: Dollar Joe (Williams); Kittleson Slough (Mountrail); Lone Butte (Dunn)
  • Comments:
    • BR has a permit for another Tilton well, SENW 18-147-97, 
      • to be sited 2317 FNL and 3493 FWL
    • Silver Hill has permits for two TJ E Federal wells, NENE 32-158-91, 
      • both to be sited 300 FNL with one at 769 FEL and one at 734 FEL;
    • Hess has permits for four GO-Foss wells, SESW23-156-97; 
      • all four to be sited 2195/2195 FWL and at 632 FSL; 599 FSL; 533 FL; and, 500 FSL

Two permits renewed:

  • 26330, Formentera Operations, an Olav permit, Skjermo oil field, Divide County;
  • 37817, Neptune Operating, a Dorothy permit, Rainbow, Williams County; this one is still confidential, no release date, it appears it will be running south to north into sections 18 / 19 - 158-98. note: 

One producing well (a DUC) reported as completed:

  • 31767, 0, BR, Ivan 2-1-29MBH, McKenzie County;

Nvidia -- 1Q25 Earnings -- Reported August 28, 2024

Locator: 48474NVIDIA.

Tag: NVDA.

Additional Analyses

Later, 8:56 p.m. CDT, from TWSJ:

 Post-Release Post

Results:

  • EPS: 68 cents ve 64 cents expected
  • revenue: $30.04 billion vs $28.7 billion expected
    • data center revenue: $26.3 billion, up 154% y/y
  • net income: $16.6 billion vs $6.18 billion y/y
    • per share: 67 cents this quarter vs $2.48 / share y/y
  • guidance: $32.5 billion in current quarter vs $31.7 billion expected by analysts
  • announces a $50-billion share buyback;
  • needs to be fact-checked: forward P/E = 40; [FACT CHECK: on CNBC, August 29, 2024, 4:56 p.m., CNBC had a graphic showing Nvidia's p/e to be .... 37.]
    • if that forward P/E is accurate, could be quite interesting;
    • AMD's "current" P/E is 176.
  • ticker: down 7% on the day

Pre-Releast Post

Will report at 4:20 CDT, Wednesday, August 28, 2024.

Regardless what it reports and how the market reacts, it should be a win-win for everyone. But, it's all about the guidance.

Posted before the earnings release, link here:

Forecast: link here. Also here for more discussion.

  • revenue: $28.7 billion (prior quarter: $26.08)
  • from data center: $24 (prior quarter: billion $22.6)

The Day The Earth Stood Still, wiki, opened, 1951.

Nividia: will report earnings later today; after market close.

Nvidia: before the day is over, this will probably become a much sought-after graphic, link here. Compare this chart with any other similar chart and one will see just how incredible Nvidia is.

  • look at those incredible margins and other data points, from left to right:
    • largest revenue center, "Data Center": $22.6 billion; grew 23% q/q
    • revenue: $26.08 billion; grew 18% q/q
    • gross profit: $20.4 billion; grew 2pp q/q; 78% margin;
    • operating profit: $16.9 billion; grew 3pp q/q; 65% margin;
    • net profit: $14.9 billion; grew 2pp q/q; 75% margin;

Compare with Apple, link here:

  • data points, from left to right:
    • largest revenue center, "iPhone": $39.3 billion; grew 1% y/y;
    • all products: $61.6 billion; grew 2% y/y;
    • revenue: $85.8 billion; grew 5% y/y
    • gross profit: $39.7 billion; grew 2pp q/q; 46% margin;
    • operating profit: $25.4 billion; grew 1pp q/q; 30% margin;
    • net profit: $21.4 billion; grew 1pp q/q; 25% margin;

***********************************
Disclaimer
Briefly Reminder 

  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
  • Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
  • Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia. 

Personal Utility -- Electricity Bill -- August 28, 2024

Locator: 48272ELECTRICITY.

Electricity rates by state, April, 2024, link here

Electricity bill, north Texas. Household energy: only electricity, no natural gas. Utility says their electricity is 100% renewable. 

My rate runs about 15.6 cents per kWh, slightly higher than the "advertised" 14.25 cents, up slightly from 14.11 cents one year ago.

You can see that it's actually been cooler this year, but I made a conscious decision not to worry about electricity this summer. And you can see the difference.

Average high temperature:

  • last year: 105°F
  • this. year: 98°F
  • previous month: 96°F

Usage:

  • last year: 720 kWh
  • this year: 832 kWh

Average paid this month:

15.6 cents / kWh -- no complaints. ERCOT held -- no blackouts. No real spikes in the price of electricity.


 

Cramer's First Hour -- "Klaatu Barada Nikto" -- Today -- The Day The Earth Stood Still -- August 28, 2024

Locator: 48471CRAMER.

Forecast: link here. Also here for more discussion.

  • revenue: $28.7 billion (prior quarter: $26.08)
  • from data center: $24 (prior quarter: billion $22.6)

The Day The Earth Stood Still, wiki, opened, 1951.

Nividia: will report earnings later today; after market close.

Nvidia: before the day is over, this will probably become a much sought-after graphic, link here. Compare this chart with any other similar chart and one will see just how incredible Nvidia is.

  • look at those incredible margins and other data points, from left to right:
    • largest revenue center, "Data Center": $22.6 billion; grew 23% q/q
    • revenue: $26.08 billion; grew 18% q/q
    • gross profit: $20.4 billion; grew 2pp q/q; 78% margin;
    • operating profit: $16.9 billion; grew 3pp q/q; 65% margin;
    • net profit: $14.9 billion; grew 2pp q/q; 75% margin;

Compare with Apple, link here:

  • data points, from left to right:
    • largest revenue center, "iPhone": $39.3 billion; grew 1% y/y;
    • all products: $61.6 billion; grew 2% y/y;
    • revenue: $85.8 billion; grew 5% y/y
    • gross profit: $39.7 billion; grew 2pp q/q; 46% margin;
    • operating profit: $25.4 billion; grew 1pp q/q; 30% margin;
    • net profit: $21.4 billion; grew 1pp q/q; 25% margin;

Cramer's first hour: a mix of fact, factoids, opinions from various sources -- often not cited -- while listening to Cramer's first hour on CNBC.  

A reminder: historically, the months of August and September are the worst months of the year for investors who hope to pay more for shares. 

Schwab: investor sentient -- investors are the most bullish they've been since Schwab first starting doing this survey. Survey: what is driving the strong sentiment? A wealth effect is building. Concentration risk is starting to spread out. Tech, health services, materials, utilities. Re-posted from yesterday.

BRK:

  • sells more BofA shares; $982 million in most recent sale
  • closing in on $1 trillion market cap [BRK did hit the magic number during an intra-day high but then fell back below $1 trillion market cap by the close]
  • now: about $280 billion in cash

AAPL: after being negative overnight and pre-market this morning, has just turned green (one cent), ten minutes before open. But now negative, down 12 cents. Nothing matters until 4:20 today. At the open, slightly in the green. Whoo-hoo!

***********************************
Disclaimer
Briefly Reminder 

  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
  • Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
  • Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia. 

 ****************************
A Musical Interlude

Link here.

Nvidia -- 1Q25 (Previous Quarter) -- Apple -- 3Q24 (Most Recent Quarter) -- August 28, 2024

Locator: 48470INV.

Nvidia will report earnings later today, after market close. 

Nvidia: before the day is over, this will probably become a much sought-after graphic, link here. Compare this chart with any other similar chart and one will see just how incredible Nvidia is.

  • look at those incredible margins and other data points, from left to right:
    • largest revenue center, "Data Center": $22.6 billion; grew 23% q/q
    • revenue: $26.08 billion; grew 18% q/q
    • gross profit: $20.4 billion; grew 2pp q/q; 78% margin;
    • operating profit: $16.9 billion; grew 3pp q/q; 65% margin;
    • net profit: $14.9 billion; grew 2pp q/q; 75% margin;

Compare with Apple, link here:


  • data points, from left to right:
    • largest revenue center, "iPhone": $39.3 billion; grew 1% y/y;
    • all products: $61.6 billion; grew 2% y/y;
    • revenue: $85.8 billion; grew 5% y/y
    • gross profit: $39.7 billion; grew 2pp q/q; 46% margin;
    • operating profit: $25.4 billion; grew 1pp q/q; 30% margin;
    • net profit: $21.4 billion; grew 1pp q/q; 25% margin;

EV Setback: GM Delays Indiana Battery Factory -- August 28, 2024

Locator: 48469EVS.

EVs are tracked here.

EV setback (again): GM delays Indiana battery factory. Link to TWSJ

*****************************
Chinese EVs 


They may be selling more EVs, but their margins are dropping.

Li Auto (LI) dropped 16% today.

BYD dropped 2.4%.

Enerplus To Report Another Huge Well In Elidah Oil Field -- August 28, 2024

Locator: 48468B.

AI: CrowdStrike to partner with Nvidia. Link here. Tech is tracked here.

Lego: 13% revenue jump in 1H24. Link here.

EV setback (again): GM delays Indiana battery factory. Link to TWSJ

*************************
Back to the Bakken

WTI: $74.04.

Thursday, August 29, 2024: 74 for the month; 130 for the quarter, 454 for the year
40471
, conf, Oasis, Maverick Federal 5602 13-12 4B,
40418, conf, Oasis, Fossum 5301 43-35 4B,
39855, conf, Enerplus, Wildebeest 148-95-4A-16H, Elidah oil field; huge well; see this post with maps;
39712, conf, Hess, TI-Larson-LE-157-85-2635H-1
39710, conf, Hess, TI-Larson-157-85-2536H-4,

Wednesday, August 28, 2024: 69 for the month; 125 for the quarter, 449 for the year
40476
, conf, CLR, Clover 4-10H,
40361, conf, Oasis, Maverick Federal 5602 13-12 3B,
36270, conf, BR, George-Lillibridge 4C MBH-ULW,

RBN Energy: Canada's short-lived rail disruption and its energy-trade impacts.

For a few days last week, Canada experienced a nationwide shutdown of its rail transportation network — the backbone of its economy. Of the literally thousands of items railed across Canada to consumers and for export to the U.S. and overseas, we consider three important liquid energy commodities — crude oil, propane and butane — that are transported by rail to provide some perspective on the volumes and dollar values that could have been jeopardized by an extended shutdown. In today’s RBN blog, we summarize the short-lived disruption to Canadian and international commerce and tally the impacts that could have been. 

It’s often taken for granted, but rail transportation is critical to the North American economy — not just Canada but the U.S. and Mexico too. Machinery, automobiles, grains, coal, lumber, consumer goods, chemicals, and many other things move by rail every day to keep items on shelves for consumers, move raw materials to processing centers and for export to overseas customers.