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Friday, August 16, 2024

Rambling -- On A Friday Night -- August 16, 2024

Locator: 48444CHIPS.

Link here.

When it comes to AI, there are two camps:

  • AI is all hype;
  • AI is not hyped.

I'm in the second camp.

Exhibit A: Jim Cramer's "Mad Money" -- yesterday, August 15, 2024.

From last month

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SoFi

Watch for SoFi tying up with one of the hyperscalers. 

There's an interesting story there but ... apparently the "balance sheet" was so unbalanced, the bank said "no."

That speaks volumes about whether one should invest in a particular company.

But then this:

***********************************
Disclaimer Briefly 
Reminder
  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market, 
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
  • Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.
  • Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market, 
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 

**************************
Good Directions

Link here.

Klamath River Update -- One Of The Biggest Environmental Stories This Year -- Free-Flowing For The First Time In A Century -- August 16, 2024

Locator: 48443RIVER.

For my paddle-boarding daughter: this is a free-flowing river, 414 km (330 miles) -- perfect for paddle boarding!

Klamath River on the blog: three previous posts --

On August 5, 2024, just two weeks ago:

Story here:


For my paddle-boarding daughter: this is a free-flowing river, 414 km (330 miles) -- perfect for paddle boarding!

Week 33: August 12, 2024 -- August 18, 2024

Locator: 48439TOPSTORIES.

Top story

  • Mideast quiets down; Iran has not retaliated; Gaza hostage deal in the works?
  • Ukraine has taken territory inside Russia
  • Trump: choosing to lose?

    Top international non-energy story:


    Top international energy story:

    Top national non-energy story:

    • US equity markets have an incredibly good week
      • everything points to a rate cut of 50 basis points in September

    Top national energy story:

    • Chevron: new technology in deepwater Gulf of Mexico
    • shale: seems to be experiencing a new surge in production

    Focus on fracking: current link here. Generally updated late Sunday night.

    Top North Dakota non-energy story:

    Top North Dakota energy story:

    Geoff Simon's quick connectslink here.

    The market in a nutshell: At the close --


    Five New Permits -- August 16, 2024

    Locator: 48438B.

    WTI: $76.65.

    Active rigs: 37.

    Five new permits, #41031 - #41036, inclusive:

    • Operators: BR (4), Hess
    • Fields: Elidah (McKenzie County); Juniper (McKenzie)
    • Comments:
      • Hess has a permit for a BW-Wilson well, SESW 36-149-99, 
        • to be sited 350 FSL and 2210 FWL;
      • BR has permits for two Cleetwood wells and two Phantom Ship wells, SWSE 22-152-97; 
        • to be sited 2247 FEL and at 900 FSL; 868 FSL; 772 FSL; and, 740 FSL.

    Two permits renewed:

    • BR: two Omlid permits, Elidah oil field, McKenzie County;

    One producing well (a DUC) reported as completed:

    • 39607, 533, Oasis, Jammer 5792 43-32 4B, Mountrail County;

    Apple iPhone 15 Sales Projections -- August 16, 2024

    Locator: 48437APPLE.

    Projections are starting to be discussed.

    Some data points:

    • consensus: 50 million iPhone 15s will be sold in the September 2024 quarter
    • MS: 52.5 million will be delivered in that quarter
    • early numbers / early polling / early research suggests as many as 55 million will be delivered
    • 50 million will be a record for the September 2024 quarter
    • most popular iPhone 15 likely to be sold: the most expensive -- the iPhone 15 Pro Max
      • the Pro Max could account for 35 to 40 percent of all iPhone 15 deliveries (link here)

    From that link:

    Apple is expected to unveil the iPhone 15 series in the second week of September, followed by its availability for purchase a week later.
    Now, according to the well-known analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, the iPhone 15 Pro Max, featuring an exclusive periscope camera lens, is anticipated to become the best-selling model despite its higher price point.

    In fact, the iPhone 15 Pro Max alone is projected to account for 35 to 40 per cent of the total iPhone 15 series shipments.
    It’s estimated that Apple might ship around 10 per cent more iPhone 15 Pro Max units by the end of the year compared to the current iPhone 14 Pro Max.
    Kuo also suggests that Apple could commence shipping the iPhone 15 Pro Max as early as this week.
    The company’s shipments for the iPhone 15 series are estimated to exceed 80 million units by the end of this year, with the number expected to rise to 220 million units by the end of 2024.

    Search:

    • almost 30% of all search goes through the Apple toolbar (across all makes and brands).

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    The 2032 US Olympics Jiu-Jitsu Team

    Sophia: far left, back row.

    The CHIPS Act -- August 16, 2024

    Locator: 48436CHIPS.

    Link here.

    When it comes to AI, there are two camps:

    • AI is all hype;
    • AI is not hyped.

    I'm in the second camp.

    ****************
    Does Anybody Read This Stuff?

    In the US Senate:

    • every Democrat, except Bernie Sanders voted for the bill;
    • half of the GOP senators voted against the bill.

    Since the bill passed in 2022, the US is on track to add more construction for computer and electronics manufacturing in one year (2024) than the US did during the twenty (20) years prior to the Act.

    Half of the GOP US senators voted against this bill. Except for Bernie Sanders, every Democrat US senator voted for this bill. 

    The "good Republican," link here:

    It gets tedious.

    Something tells me this bill will more than pay for itself.

    Presidential Politics -- Choosing To Lose? August 16, 2024

    Locator: 48435PP.

    For political junkies, just two more weeks -- then the campaigns will really get into full swing. Until then...

    The three best presidential political links today include one from Fox News.

    So, how did the VFW feels about the Sviteck and Lamothe article?

    Link here.

    And it's not just Trump choosing to lose. Here's the media on JD Vance the last few days:

    Sweetgreen -- August 16, 2024

    Locator: 48434INV.

    Updates

    August 19, 2024: Sweetgreen shares plummet 7%. Apparently another Wall Street darling downgraded

    Original Post

    Locations:

    • NYC, Huntington Beach, Dallas/Ft Worth, 
    • California: about a dozen
    • Texas: about a dozen -- Dallas/Ft Worth, Houston, Austin/Round Rock, one in San Antonio
    • Manhattan: about two dozen
    • DC: about two dozen
    • Washington State, two; Oregon, none. 
    • Florida: about a dozen -- Miami and the coast north of Miami

    200 salads / hour.

    Website

    Disruptor.

    In the crosshairs: Subway, Chipotle, Panera, Panda Express. Salata, Salad And Go. 

    NYSE:

    • market cap: $4 billion
    • ticker symbol: SG
    ***********************************
    Disclaimer Briefly 
    Reminder
    • I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market, 
    • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
    • See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
    • Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.
    • Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market, 
    • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 

    Re-Posting: Look What Just Broke -- Holy Mackerel -- Are You Kidding Me? August 16, 2024

    Locator: 48434EVS.

    Breaking

    Later, 2:21 p.m. CDT, August 16, 2024: now making "headlines" over at CNBC noting that in a rising market (today), Rivian is going in the opposite direction. Down 5% for the day.

    Later, 10:06 a.m. CDT, August 16, 2024. Holy mackerel -- look what just broke!

    More here:

    Rivian Automotive Inc. has paused production of the electric commercial van it makes for Amazon.com Inc. due to a parts shortage in the latest supply chain snafu for the EV maker.

    The temporary stoppage began earlier this month at its factory in Normal, Ill., according to Rivian. The EV maker declined to specify which components were in short supply, but said it expects to recover all missed production. It provided no timeline.

    Part shortages are common in the industry, a Rivian spokesperson told Bloomberg, adding that production of R1 electric pickup and SUV models is unaffected. All affected employees have the opportunity to continue working 40 hours a week during the pause.

    Probably a non-story in the big scheme of things, but certainly doesn't help Rivian's credibility. And incredible lack of transparency:

    • what parts?
    • are the parts unique to the Amazon van, or does it include parts found across Rivian's platforms?
    • how did it happen?
    • expected date to begin production?

    Big question: will CNBC's Phil Le Beau report on this story? So far, not to my knowledge.

    More

    Rivian has amassed a surplus of the delivery vans at the plant that are awaiting delivery to Amazon. The carmaker has a deal to supply the company with 100,000 vans by the end of the decade, and about 15,000 are already in service in the U.S.

    Original Post

    Continuing our focus on electricity today, we continue with EVs.

    Norway: the headline caught my eye. Then the backstory. LOL. The headline: almost every car now being sold in Norway is an EV. Wow. Almost every car. Then the small print: car sales in Norway are down an incredible, whopping 50% year-over-year That's the lowest in fifteen years. Link here.

    Norway: re-thinking EVs.

    Lucid: oh-oh. It's just a matter of time before Saudi says sayonara. Probably one of the best analyses I've seen on this subject. Link here.


    Tesla: this is a story I would have expected in a throw-away, clickbait-heavy source, but here it is, in The WSJ. Amazing. People pay $100,000 for this and then accept what they get without complaining. 

    Even after an incredibly bad five years, their shares continue to collapse. 

    Rivian, the darling of Wall Street. Over five years it has lost an incredible 90% of its value, but in the past year those loses have continues, having lost almost 40% of its value over the past year.

    Lucid, the car company for LIV players. Over five years it has lost 69% of its value, but in the last year, it has lost almost 50% of its value.

    Hedge Funds -- 2Q24

    Locator: 48435INV.

    AAPL, NVDA: from yesterday --

    TSMC: "they" keep telling us twitter is a disaster and will eventually disappear, and then we get "good" stuff like this -- and this is just the beginning of a very, very long essay and some kinda good comments --


    Hedge funds: where they put their money in 2Q24, link here. So much more than this, but in a nutshell, what hedge funds were buying in 2Q24:

    Focus On Electricity -- EVs -- August 16, 2024

    Locator: 48434EVS.

    Breaking

    Later, 10:06 a.m. CDT, August 16, 2024. Holy mackerel -- look what just broke!

    Original Post

    Continuing our focus on electricity today, we continue with EVs.

    Norway: the headline caught my eye. Then the backstory. LOL. The headline: almost every car now being sold in Norway is an EV. Wow. Almost every car. Then the small print: car sales in Norway are down an incredible, whopping 50% year-over-year That's the lowest in fifteen years. Link here.

    Norway: re-thinking EVs.

    Lucid: oh-oh. It's just a matter of time before Saudi says sayonara. Probably one of the best analyses I've seen on this subject. Link here.


    Tesla: this is a story I would have expected in a throw-away, clickbait-heavy source, but here it is, in The WSJ. Amazing. People pay $100,000 for this and then accept what they get without complaining. 

    Even after an incredibly bad five years, their shares continue to collapse. 

    Rivian, the darling of Wall Street. Over five years it has lost an incredible 90% of its value, but in the past year those loses have continues, having lost almost 40% of its value over the past year.

    Lucid, the car company for LIV players. Over five years it has lost 69% of its value, but in the last year, it has lost almost 50% of its value.

    TGIF -- August 16, 2024

    Locator: 48432B.

    Recession: back on the table. 

    ***************************
    Back to the Bakken

    WTI: down a whopping 3% overnight -- now below $76 again, as peace breaks out in the Mideast.

    Sunday, August 18, 2024: 45 for the month; 101 for the quarter, 427 for the year
    40237
    , conf, WPX, Missouri River 25-26HC,
    39902, conf, Liberty Resources, Alvin E 158-95-18-19-2MBH,
    39795, conf, Enerplus, Sapphire 148-95-03B-10H,
    39254, conf, Hess, SC-4WX-153-98-3130H-6,

    Saturday, August 17, 2024: 41 for the month; 97 for the quarter, 423 for the year
    40416
    , conf, Kraken, Fasching 15-22-27 4H,
    40389, conf, WPX, Missouri River 25-26HW,
    24360, conf, Grayson Mill, Knight 35-26 2H,

    Friday, August16, 2024: 38 for the month; 94 for the quarter, 420 for the year
    40465
    , conf, Kraken, Fasching LE 15-22-27 12H,
    40388, conf, WPX, Missouri River 25-26HA,
    39903, conf, Liberty Resources, Alvin E 158-95-18-19-4MBH,
    39797, conf, Enerplus, Topaz 148-95-03B-10H,

    RBN Energy: amid M&A frenzy, some E&Ps pause to sell non-core assets as others seek "bolt-ons."

    There’s been a frenzy of M&A activity in the Permian Basin the past couple of years, and in recent months many of the acquiring E&Ps have reviewed their expanded base of assets, determined which acreage, wells and future well sites are core to their business going forward, and initiated the process of divesting the rest. At the same time, others — including some producers that were part of the merger mania — are on the hunt for what they see as underappreciated assets with the potential to shine.
    Folks, we’re in the early stages of what you might call “The Great Permian Reshuffling” — a rapid-fire exchange of upstream assets in the nation’s most prolific shale play. In today’s RBN blog, we discuss a few of the most noteworthy “bolt-on” deals and what they tell us.

    Big Story Today -- Electricity Demand Surging -- California -- Friday, August 16, 2024

    Locator: 48431ELECTRICITY.

    Electricity demand surging: great interactive article in The WSJ today. Link here

    Which immediately takes us to California: link here.

    Re-posting:

    Electric rates tracked here by the EIA

    Residential electric rates, cents per kWh, May, 2024, for selected states:

    • Massachusetts: 28.70
    • New York: 23.60
    • Ohio: 16.65
    • Minnesota: 15.69
    • North Dakota: 13.04
    • Florida: 13.63
    • Tennessee: 12.46
    • Texas: 14.74
    • Montana: 13.26
    • California: 34.31 (no typo) -- it was 29.80 a year ago -- a 15% increase in price y/y!
    • Washington State: 12.16 (think hydroelectricity)
    • Alaska: 25.02
    • Hawaii: 44.14 (and a question whether Hawaiian Electric might go bankrupt)

    But, cost of electricity is like the US postage stamp: for residential demand, it's not the cost/kWh, it's the amount of electricity actually used per household/month. For US postage stamps, it's not the cost per stamp, it's the overall cost of mailing for non-commercial users. See household demand by state at this link. Average monthly use by household:

    • California: 542 kwh 
      • almost half that of high use states
      • (only Hawaii is lower at 531)
    • Florida: 1,096
    • Louisiana: 1,192 (highest)
    • Minnesota: 776
    • North Dakota: 1,041
    • Texas: 1,094

    Coincidentally, this was posted yesterday:

    Which takes me to SRE. Ticker:


    And pays 3%. And increases dividend regularly

    ERCOT: link here. Holding, but will be challenging through the rest of the month of August.