Locator: 48370INV.
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Ready To Quilt
Thursday, August 8, 2024
And "They" Told Us Not To Buy The Dip -- LOL -- Who's Kidding Whom -- August 8, 2024
Three New Permits; Four Permits Renewed; Three DUCs Reported As Completed -- August 8, 2014
Locator: 48369B.
WTI: $76.05.
Active rigs: 35.
Three new permits, #41010 - #41012, inclusive:
- Operators: Oasis (2); Zavanna
- Fields: Enget Lake (Mountrail); Glass Bluff (McKenzie), Epping (Williams)
- Comments;
- Oasis has a permit for a Rystedt well, NWSW 28-158-92,
- to be sited 1589 FSL and 677 FWL:
- Oasis has a permit for a Sawtooth well, SENE 20-152-102,
- to be sited 2235 FNL and 473 FEL;
- Zavanna has a permit for a Midas well, SESE 36-155-99,
- to be sited 410 FSL and 945 FEL
Four permits renewed:
- Burlington Resources: four Three Rivers permits, Charlson oil field, McKenzie County;
Three producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:
- 40245, 146, Empire North Dakota, Walleye 32-8 1H,
- 40288, 2,779, MRO, Bowers 31-13H, see this post;
- 40415, 1,894, CLR, Chase 6-19HSL;
- the parent well, #20230, Chase 1-19H, is off line, t7/11; cum 202K 4/24;
Olympics -- Noah Lyles -- Diagnosed With Covid BEFORE He Ran -- Exposing Others; Did Not Self-Isolate Once The Diagnosis Was Made -- August 8, 2024
Locator: 48367COVID.
Apparently at the Olympics, if you test positive you are allowed to continue to compete, thus exposing "everyone" with whom you come in contact to Covid.
In addition, in this case, the #4 runner was cheated out of a bronze medal because normally if one tests positive for Covid, they must self-isolate for a period of time as prescribed by the governing officials.
Something tells me, we have not heard the last of this.
Noah Lyles just lost a lot of respect in the sporting community.
There's A Reason Chip Manufacturers Build Overseas -- The Situation Is Not Unique To TSMC -- Intel Is Building In Ireland; Israel Is Huge Center For Chip Development / High Tech -- August 8, 2024
Locator: 48365CHIPS.
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The Book Page
From One Cell: A Journey Into Life's Origins And The Future Of Medicine, Ben Stanger, 2023.
Audience: summer reading for high school juniors and seniors planning to major in one of the many biologic disciplines.
I haven't finished this book but I'm pretty sure I know all the science incorporated in this book.
However, the history of the discoveries leading to all this science is fascinating. Some of it I knew, but very, very little.
It is amazing how serendipity plays/played such a huge role in scientific discoveries.
Most striking for me, however, is that many of the discoveries were made through intuition alone. A particular scientist makes a huge leap and all of a sudden everything becomes clear.
Exhibit A: the author talks about Johann Mendel, the monk and the green/yellow - smooth/wrinkled peas. Between 1856 and 1863, Mendel examined some 30,000 plants scoring their visible phenotypes and looking for patterns. Somewhere along the line Mendel -- a non-mathematician -- formulated an algebraic model which I've never seen and the author didn't provide; I've always using the classic Punnett square. How Mendel made that leap from observations and narrative descriptions to a Punnett square is beyond me. It's obvious in hindsight, but ...
Similarly, the development of the Periodic Table. A huge, huge intuitive leap by Mendeleev.
Similarly, the schematic for benzene. A snake swallowing its tale.
Similarly, the DNA model proposed by watsonandcrick.
I have a 15-minute binder that I use to tutor Sophia, the same concept I used for her older sisters. One of those two older sisters will graduate from Vanderbilt this next year after completing a highly sought internship in Washington, DC, this summer. The other will be starting Stanford University this autumn on a full scholarship.
I will be adding three pages to the 15-minute binder: the Periodic Table, the Standard Model of Fundamental Particles; and the Punnett square.
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Medical School
It's interesting. In the 1970s, medical schools had different philosophies with regard to how to teach medicine.
Harvard University had one method; the University of Southern California had another method. Both are top-notch medical schools. Looking back on the method, the former was more "educational"; the the later, more "training."
Generally speaking, all medical schools are very similar: the first two years, didactic; the third and fourth years, clinical.
Back in the 70s, Harvard Medical school really, really, really emphasized didactics -- lectures followed by max time spent in the library, self-guiding education. USC, on the other hand, lectures followed by max time on the medical / surgical units, spending time with patients.
After reading Ben Stanger's From One Cell, I would argue that either method is fine, but they tend to attract different types of students and lead to different outcomes. The former: more research-oriented; longer life in medicine; less likely risk of early burnout. The latter: more outcome-oriented; reach one's "pinnacle" sooner but then not "grow" further; an increased risk of early burnout.
In the undergraduate years, I wonder if the "UC-Santa Cruz method" might not have been an interesting way of educating high functioning students in biology or chemistry. I don't know how they do it now, but when I was last there, decades ago, it was my impression the first year was a yearlong survey of all the laboratory sciences, incredibly rigorous year of studying 24/7 but no lab. At the end of that year, the undergraduate student would sit down with a professor to discuss a "question" to answer in the lab for the next three years. One the "question" to be asked had been formulated the student would be farmed out to graduate student TA's with quarterly meetings with the professor.
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Recipes: Crock Pot Brisket and Sweet Bell Peppers Saute
Rivian: Best Of Breed? August 8, 2024
Locator: 48362ARCHIVES.
Initial jobless claims:
- less than expected; labor market healthy
- what recession? Markets surge! Well, maybe not surging, but reversed direction and now going up.
- Steven Liesman: macro-economic desert; data impossible to read
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EVs
RIVIAN: best of breed. But incredibly lonely.
It's my impression folks think Rivian is a huge EV manufacturer. See scorecard:
Scorecard
2024: world's ten largest EV manufacturers. To get on the list, a company needs at least one-half million BEV units delivered annually. PHEVs are fake EVs.
- #1: China, BYD, 3 million
- #2: US, Tesla, 1.8 million
- #3. Germany, VW Group, 0.8 million
- #4. US, GM, 0.5 million
- #9. China, GAC/Polestar, 0.5 million. See update posted today.
- NO LONGER LISTED among the top ten: FORD.
- Rivian: 60,000 (one-tenth of what is need to get on top ten list)
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Rivian
Data points:
Before continuing, important to review a definition:
- CEO: on path to reach positive gross profit by end of 2024.
- lemonade stands run by 8-year-olds: huge gross profits
- their moms pay for all materials
- facts:
- net loss widened to $1.4 billion, a greater loss than the $1.3 billion expected by Wall Street;
- loss greater than the $1.2 billion a year earlier;
- delivered 13,790 vehicles in 2Q24 (annualized = 55,160)
- continues to lose money on every vehicle it sells -- analyst
- lost $32,700 per vehicle sold during it second quarter
- an improvement from the $38,784 per vehicle in first quarter
- so ... LOL ... why did number get better -- the company temporarily shut down its factory in Normal, Illinois in April ... say what ....
- will halt production in Normal, Illinois, for "more than a month" next year to transition to the new R2
- had planned to build the R2 in Georgia but delayed those plans to save money; Georgia plant would have cost $5 billion
- coincidental: VW partnered with Rivian for $5 billion
- guidance:
- 57,000 trucks for full years
- a loss of $2.7 billion in adjusted earnings
- but on path for positive gross profits
- ticker:
- the stock is down 30% year-to-date; five-year? down 90%
- last five days: down 16%
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Pickup Trucks
From the linked article:
Although traditional automakers have pledged to invest tens of billions of dollars to transition to EVs in the coming decade, they’re making a renewed bet on those large gasoline-powered vehicles that they expected to move away from. The surprising change is in part because consumer demand for EVs has not lived up to expectations, and it is partly because the demand for large gasoline powered trucks and SUVs is keeping prices, and profits, in that part of the market very strong.
A prime example of traditional automakers’ changing views of electric vehicles can be found in the Ford assembly plant in Oakville, Ontario, just outside of Toronto.
Last year, when Ford was negotiating with the Unifor, the union that represents Canadian auto workers, the company promised it would build a new three-row EV at its plant in Oakville, Ontario, starting as soon as 2025. But in April, it hit the brakes on those plans and put the roll-out of the EV model on hold until at least 2027.
“The additional time will allow for the consumer market for three-row EVs to further develop and enable Ford to take advantage of emerging battery technology,” Ford said in a statement at that time. When – and if – it does move ahead with the new three-row EV, it might look to build it at a US or Canadian plant, or it might look to a lower cost factory in Mexico. [There is no emerging battery technology.]
Last month, Ford announced plans for a different vehicle to be built at the Oakville plant in its place: Super Duty trucks, a larger version of Ford’s F-series trucks that remain Ford’s best selling vehicles. Ford said it will build 100,000 of the Super Duty trucks a year in Oakville starting in 2026, even while maintaining production of the trucks at its plants in Kentucky and Ohio.
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Crime Reads
Headlines -- August 8, 2024
Locator: 48361ARCHIVES.
Eli Lilly: up $90 in pre-market trading. Huge earnings report; blows past estimates;
Recession? Jamie Dimon says he sees recession on the horizon; we've been hearing same story for four years;
NVDA? Drops below $100.
Texas power? Just amazing! Link here.
Mideast? Another day, no regional war.
Gasoline demand? The blog has posted EIA data every week for past 15 years. Not sure if it has provided any useful information. One wonders if posting it once annually would be just as valuable.
Astronauts? Stranded in space until February, 2025. This story is getting more .... shall we say "weird" every day?
National presidential polls?
- Most recent poll by respected pollster shows Kamala Harris up by 8 points.
- The CNBC poll show Trump holds 2-point lead; big advantage? The economy.
Walz? Former coach; now governor. Apparently owns no real estate; owns no stock -- net worth may be one million dollars -- Forbes.
Disney? Flashing red. Slid into a nine-month low.
Games: NYT Connections; NYT Spelling Bee; Forbes Frases.
Yahoo News:
- Utah: first execution since 2010
- budget airlines at risk ... of remaining budget airlines
Recession? What Recession? August 8, 2024
Locator: 48360RECESSION.
Unemployment, link here: in the "entire" pool called "the labor force," only 1.6% have been unemployed 15 weeks or longer; U1 is the only metric that matters to me.
- And on this news, the American stock market tanked (along the news coming out of Japan at the same time).
CNBC: David Faber noted that "everyone" had predicted a recession in 2023. Didn't happen.
Today, link here:
Re-posting.
GDP: yesterday's GDPNow number;
- the "actual number" matters less than the direction, the trend
- having said that, GDP estimate for 3Q24 up 40 basis points, or is 4 basis points?
- whatever, from 2.5% to 2.9%
Aviation: no signs of recession here. Did "we" just get played this past week. If so, not complaining. Great, great buying opportunities.
Thursday, August 8, 2024
Locator: 48359B.
Another Cramer darling dropped 20% intra-day yesterday: Dutch Brothers.
Weekly EIA petroleum report, link here:
- in storage: 6% below five-year average
- refiners: 90.5%
- airlines: down 1.2%
Gasoline demand, link here, end of summer driving season:
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Back to the Bakken
WTI: $75.32.
Friday, August 9, 2024: 22 for the month; 78 for the quarter, 404 for the year
40375, conf, Iron Oil Operating, Stocke 6-4-9H,
39603, conf, Hess, BL-Iverson B-155-95-0807H-8,
39252, conf, Hess, SC-4WC-153-98-3130H-4,
40236, conf, Iron Oil Operating, Stocke 5-4-9H,
39602, conf, Hess, BL-iverson B-155-95-0807H-7,
RBN Energy: Guyana in line to become major crude oil supplier, but obstacles remain.
Guyana’s rise as a crude oil producer in recent years can only be
described as meteoric. If forecasts from some of the most respected
international agencies pan out, the South American country’s output may
soon rival some of the world’s biggest offshore producers. But the
developments there are not without some controversy: they’re the
centerpiece of a dispute over the proposed Chevron-Hess merger, while
neighboring Venezuela claims that much of Guyana’s oil reserves are
actually within Venezuelan territory. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll take a
deep dive into Guyana’s production, examining its grades, quality and
export flows as it transforms into a major global supplier.