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Thursday, August 8, 2024

Recession? What Recession? August 8, 2024

Locator: 48360RECESSION.

Unemployment, link here: in the "entire" pool called "the labor force," only 1.6% have been unemployed 15 weeks or longer; U1 is the only metric that matters to me.

  • And on this news, the American stock market tanked (along the news coming out of Japan at the same time).

CNBC: David Faber noted that "everyone" had predicted a recession in 2023. Didn't happen. 

Today, link here:

Re-posting.

GDP: yesterday's GDPNow number;

  • the "actual number" matters less than the direction, the trend
  • having said that, GDP estimate for 3Q24 up 40 basis points, or is 4 basis points?
  • whatever, from 2.5% to 2.9%

Aviation: no signs of recession here. Did "we" just get played this past week. If so, not complaining. Great, great buying opportunities.

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