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Thursday, July 18, 2024

Our Granddaughter Took A Dip In Iceberg Lake, Glacier National Park Today -- July 18, 2024

Locator: 48186FAMILY.

She is simply amazing.

Link here

Our other granddaughter is in Washington, DC, this summer, having been accepted to an incredibly competitive internship. Most important thing for folks between the age of twelve years and thirty-two years of age: see and do as much as possible and not worry about "working." Don't take that out of context.

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I'll Meet You At Midnight.

Link here.

Second US Senator Says President Biden Needs To Drop Out Of Race -- July 18, 2024

Locator: 48185BIDEN.

Can't wait to see Peggy Noonan's next column.

Posted simply for the archives.

If Joe Biden does not drop out, the DNC Convention inside is going to be incredibly somber, depressing, compared to the RND Convention inside. I have no idea what the DNC Convention will bring outside. 

Link here.

Trump Shooting: Director, Secret Service -- Had "Her Story" Wrong -- July 18, 2024

Locator: 48184SHOOTING.

The Director, Secret Service, herself, nationally-televised interview had the story wrong -- either she lied (unlikely) or she was incorrectly briefed by her own folks.


And she "made up a story" (?) to try to explain her first iteration. And that story was ludicrous -- she stated a sniper was not on the building in question because it had a sloped roof and would have been dangerous to put a SS sniper on a sloped roof. The "shooter" did just fine on the sloped roof.

When nominated for the job, she said her #1 priority was making the SS more diversified. Protecting the president, apparently, was not her #1 priority. 

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Why Not?

Link here.

What is it about rolling skates ...?

Be sure to read the comments at the link. What insane choreography.

Investing -- July 18, 2024

Locator: 48183INV.

I sure hope folks are paying attention. This could be one of the biggest opportunities of an investing lifetime.

Data points to follow.

Apple.

Netflix. Link here.

TSM.

The Atlantic headline today. 

Two most important people on CNBC right now: Josh Brown and Jim Cramer.

Quick: what are you paying for a 5.5-oz can of sour cream and onion Pringles? Price can range from a dollar to $4.79.

Mine: $1.75. Look at that Instacart ... and yes, that's a 5.5-ounce cylinder. $4.79 vs $1.00 at Walmart. Maybe $2.00. I might have to ride my bike to Walmart tomorrow. By the way, anyone following WMT today.

I haven't had Pringles in ages, but when I saw the price, two for $3.49, it was a no-brainer.

WMT:


You know, it's funny. That MLB analogy (or something similar could be a great model for a high school finance course). Just saying.

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Rambling On Investing

We will start here, with baseball:

The MLB club team: 28 players, with a limit of 14 pitchers.

The farm team / the minor leagues / the major league reserve list: 40 players.

I watch CNBC religiously -- well, at least for the last two years -- I very seldom actually watch five or six hours on any given day, but maybe once a week, I will watch three hours in one day, but religiously I try to catch two one-hour shows each day: the Jim Cramer show first thing in the morning, and the half-time report, mid-day. 

Investing and the MLB: lessons an investor can learn from the MLB, including the new rules to speed up the game.

CNBC provides holdings by some of their contributors, including those on the "Halftime Report." Some have a few; some have a lot. Some are investors; some are traders; some do a bit of both.

In fact, the "60-40" rule --which applies the the equity - bond mix is better suited for one's portfolio: 60% investing; 40% trading.

I like to think as myself as an investor, 100%, but in fact, I'm probably closer to 80-20, although even the 20% is bought with a long-term horizon in mind.

So, having said, like the MLB, I like to hold about twenty equities in my long-term accounts, and about 20 companies being followed but not yet owned, but ready to be called up at a minute's notice. If a "new" equity is "called up" I like to sell something to keep my portfolio in the 20-ticker ballpark. No pun intended. 

In general, among the 20, I do not include the legacy holdings that I have had so long that it makes almost no sense to sell them as long as they remain great companies. With dividends over 40+ years, many of my oldest holdings -- still very good companies -- are trending toward a cost basis of $0.

Oh, I almost forgot: the MLB's new rules to speed up the game. One of the bigger lessons I've learned over forty years of investing: the downside of holding onto losers way too long. And waiting too long to bring up great companies in the reserves when they've got MOJO. 

Very important: watch those forty equities in the reserves, and be ready to invest when they get hot. If one is fully invested and doesn't have the cash necessary to buy, two options: a) raise money through tax loss harvesting; and/or, b) buying on margin. If I buy on margin it's with the expectation I will have the cash within seven days. Things have gotten easier since Schwab announced that, in general, they will close trades in one business rather than three business days.

****************
Disclaimer Briefly Reminder
  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market, 
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
  • Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.
  • Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market, 
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.  


"Twisters" -- The Movie In Theaters Tomorrow, Friday, July 18, 2024 -- July 17, 2024

Locator: 48182MOVIE.

We saw the movie tonight at a special "preview" showing, courtesy of Schwab. Yeah, that Schwab.

Incredible movie. Not my genre, but I loved it. It's a great, great movie. Not for the faint-hearted.

Highly recommend. Won't play well on the small screen; need to see it on the biggest screen possible.

Biggest surprise: executive producer -- Steven Spielberg. 

Blogging Will Be Delayed Until Later Tonight -- Just The DAR Now -- July 18, 2024

Locator: 48180B.

Hand-wringing:

  • NVDA sell-off this week;
  • is up 145% so far this year;
  • okay.

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $82.82.

Active rigs: 37.

Four new permits,  #40936 - #4039, inclusive:

  • Operator: Zavanna
  • Field: Stockyard Creek (Williams County)
  • Comments:
    • Zavanna has permits for four Hereford wells, SWSW 13-154-99, 
      • to be sited 475 FSL and at these four locations: 966 FWL, 996 FWL, 1026 FWL, and 1056 FWL
      • based on their legal names, these wells will be extended long laterals, sited in section 13, but spacing unit will be sections 24 / 25 / 36 - 154 - 99
        • there are already three producing wells in those sections, but none of them in that 3-section spacing unit;

Seven producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:
40092,
40136,
40138,
40140,
40142,
40183,
40184,

Injection well completed:
13985,
25792,
32921,

Utilities Breaking Out? July 18, 2024

Locator: 48179SRE.

Wow, wow, wow. See this post. It's very unusual to see an electric / natural gas utility jump like this. It's probably due to the "breaking story" reported earlier today, over at CNBC. Regardless, it's fascinating. Again, see that linked post above. 

This is a $140-stock that split 2-1 not too long ago, making this a $70-stock, and within last few months has trended toward $80. [10/70 = 14% in a few months -- whoo-hoo -- I think by market value, SRE is my second largest holding -- would need to check -- not worth the effort -- I'm sure my cost basis has trended towards zero after all these years -- pays over 3% --



Headlines -- July 18, 2024

Locator: 48178WIND.

Tag: Putin oil Russia wind

If Putin can hang on just a bit longer, the next administration will throw him a lifeline. Link here. Americans simply want less expensive gasoline.


Wind. Link here. Not a good print for the Biden administration. Speaking of which, has anyone heard anything from the president in the last 24 horus? Cape Wind: poster child for the failed wind industry in the US.

EV Narrative Continues -- Ford Scraps Another Proposed EV-Manufacturing Plant -- July 18, 2024

Locator: 48177EVS.

Tag: EV narrative continues

Clearly: the EV movement is reversing direction. By now, we should be well up the S-shaped curve; she are not even getting close to the tipping point. Americans simply don't want to be tethered.

Link here.  

The EV narrative continues. 

Ford scraps another proposed EV-manufacturing site.

Will convert it to money-maker Super Duty trucks.

Updating Some Wells -- DUCs That Did Not Provide Initial Production Data, Now Reporting -- July 18, 2024

Locator: 48176B.

Updating some wells.

When this well came off confidential status, as a DUC, it did not report initial production. We now have that data.

The well:

  • 37649, 0 (no typo), BR, Tailgunner 2E TFH, North Fork, t12/23; cum 73K 5/24
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN5-20243025784258222932550097484511405
BAKKEN4-20243032207320563396558648565981823
BAKKEN3-20241215080149421268432034288073036
BAKKEN2-20240000000
BAKKEN1-20240000000
BAKKEN12-202371421426020401182198

 Well of interest:

  • 35690, 140, BR, Tailgunner 1E MBH, t2/20; cum 474K 5/24;

Petro-Hunt wells in Little Knife, from January 27, 2024:

July 18, 2024: all three wells of interest now back on line and doing very, very well; production updates:

  • 35809, loc/NC-->loc/A, Petro-Hunt, Sabrosky 144-97-7C-6-3H, Little Knife, t6/21; cum 181K 5/24;
  • 35808, loc/NC-->loc/A, Petro-Hunt, Hagen 144-98-12D-1-3H, Little Knife, t6/21; cum 189K 5/24;
  • 35807, conf-->drl/A, Petro-Hunt, Hagen 144-98-12D-1-2H, Little Knife, t6/21; cum 177K 5/24;

When the BR George wells -- DUCs -- came off confidential list, initial production data not provided. Production is now being reported:

  • 36177, 0, BR, George 2E TFH, Pershing, McKenzie:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN5-20243133847338661816563247619271276
BAKKEN4-20243036791365311975967648665221092
BAKKEN3-20242336037360372042166108649981080
BAKKEN2-20242542107421072041169224657703424
BAKKEN1-20240000000
BAKKEN12-20230000000
BAKKEN11-20230000000
BAKKEN10-202300062911000
  • 36178, 209, BR, George 2D MBH, Pershing, McKenzie:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN5-20243126480264952241058410573131056
BAKKEN4-2024302878328580243766245261567854
BAKKEN3-2024313261932619288397055669546978
BAKKEN2-20242939731397313057874599733891176
BAKKEN1-20243125128251281934822744227140
BAKKEN12-20230000000
BAKKEN11-20233061611922000
BAKKEN10-202350062182000
  • 36179, 477, BR, George 2C MBH, Pershing, McKenzie:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN5-2024311227712315157132455523903632
BAKKEN4-2024301769217567195243455534013525
BAKKEN3-2024313124031240301106010459141936
BAKKEN2-20242335748357482987860321587811513
BAKKEN1-20243125477254772008721558215300
BAKKEN12-20230000000
BAKKEN11-2023301611613157000
BAKKEN10-202320040642000
  • 36180, 342, BR, George 2B TFH, Pershing, McKenzie:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN5-2024312027620288233483795737064870
BAKKEN4-2024302204121885253964048939815654
BAKKEN3-2024312497724977300464574444975749
BAKKEN2-20242930423304233185849614474602132
BAKKEN1-20243124687246872310819943199170
BAKKEN12-20230000000
BAKKEN11-202329115115018014
  • 36181, 120, BR, George 2A MBH, Pershing, McKenzie:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN5-20243126522265381992553601525061057
BAKKEN4-2024302883128627216745728856403856
BAKKEN3-2024313267332673256426472463715980
BAKKEN2-20242334420344202394359360581421191
BAKKEN1-20243125143251431855821984219550
BAKKEN12-20230000000
BAKKEN11-2023261011010000

  • 36780, loc/A, BR, George 1C TFH, Pershing, t2/24; cum 101K 524;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN5-2024312254622559285474509244125939
BAKKEN4-2024302450724334310524815147399728
BAKKEN3-2024312777227772367375440053544832
BAKKEN2-20242325864258642940944285432501015
BAKKEN1-20240000000
BAKKEN12-20230000000
BAKKEN11-202330007111174027

Well of interest, #17635, still off line:

  • 17635, IA/740, BR, George 1-18H, t3/09; cum 239K 3/24;

Early Morning Trades -- July 18, 2024

Locator: 48175AI. 

Personal Investing: tracked here in a general way.

  • after NASDAQ sell-off this week, added new money to Sophia's account
  • again, my portfolio is now in a "set-and-forget" -- I no longer add any new money to my account;
  • all new money: for the grandchildren's accounts and their daily living expenses (two in college)

Amazon's Prime Days: set another record. Not unexpected.

TSM: up 2% today in early morning trading. Reported earnings before market open. 

  • quarterly results beat estimates
  • raises guidance

****************
Disclaimer Briefly Reminder
  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market, 
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
  • Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.
  • Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market, 
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.  

Texas AI: Everything's Bigger In Texas. Including Data Centers -- July 18, 2024

Locator: 48175AI.

Tag: hyperscalers data centers

Texas AI: everything's bigger in Texas. Including data centers. Link here. Will be the largest in the world.

Does It Get Any Better Than This? July 18, 2024

Locator: 48174B.

Drinking game: I turned on CNBC at 8:00 a.m. CDT -- within the first minute, David Faber said "hyperscalers." LOL.

Texas AI: everything's bigger in Texas. Including data centers. Link here.

Personal investing: does it get any better than this? It's almost predictable. 

RBN Energy: I'm really, really looking forward to RBN Energy's blog tomorrow. 

EIA petroleum drilling report:

  • link here; has not been updated in quite some time
  • is EIA no long updating dashboards?

Cramer, first hour:

  • sounds very defensive this morning; no reason to be defensive; best hour every business day for investors;

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $82.57.

Friday, July 19, 2024: 34 for the month; 34 for the quarter, 360 for the year
40257, conf, CLR, Chase 4-18H,

Thursday, July 18, 2024: 33 for the month; 33 for the quarter, 359 for the year
39893, conf, Hess, EN-Madisyn-LE-154-94-0705H-9,
39638, conf, Hess, TI-State-158-95-3635H-4,

RBN Energy: legal battles could hinder feedgas for new LNG terminals.

U.S. LNG export capacity is poised to grow tremendously over the next few years, mostly near the Texas/Louisiana border. The gas-focused Haynesville Shale in northwestern Louisiana and northeastern Texas is a prime source of additional supply for those new and expanded terminals. But plans for new north-to-south pipelines to deliver incremental gas out of the Haynesville have been clouded by legal challenges. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll discuss the reasons for the disputes, what’s been going on recently, and the potential fallout.