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Tuesday, July 9, 2024

Tough Times For EVs -- July 9, 2024

Locator: 48093EVS.

Link here. There's a handful of incredible folks on twitter. Giovanni Staunovo is one of them.

No sad feelings. 

The updated "Y" will not be released in 2024 -- so sayeth Tesla. Link here.

Porsche.

Link here

These are the guys that want to market a sub-$25,000 EV. LOL. Stellantis.

Link here


 

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What Were They Thinking?

Today, in our neighborhood, a Maserati soccer-mom car. 

Link here

If I had that kind of money to buy a Maserati, it would not be a soccer-mom Maserati. 

Just saying.

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Bunny

I had a bunny for a pet when I was growing up.

I have nothing against bunnies.

But ... The Washington Post doing stories on bunnies as pets? Say it's not so.

AI - Data Centers -- Energy Growth -- By State -- July 9, 2024

Locator: 48092TECH.

Tag: Oncor.

Updates

July 11, 2024: CNBC special on AI centers in the US by state -- Scott Cohn --

  • top states
  • Stanford has only four institutes; AI is one of the four, added in 2019; the other three: foreign policy, neuroscience, the economy; their analysis, 2024, for AI (AI, not data centers):
    • Texas: #5; a mecca for AI jobs
    • VA :#4; jobs, also
    • MD: #4, law
    • Washington State: #2; innovation
    • CA: #1 by far, the leader of the pack

Original Post

See this post, also. And this post, also.

When you think of large data centers (LCD) in the US, think of these four regions:

  • northern Virginia
  • Georgia (Atlanta)
  • Texas (Austin)
  • Oregon (Portland / Hillsboro)

but, also, North Dakota.

Hold that thought. 

This is a most interesting tweet. Link here

The tweet:

But look at the EIA chart:


What's the most notable thing about that chart? Hint: look at the "legend."

And more:

The EIA link.

Back to the chart itself and the legend.

This is not a "growth in energy demand" on a percentage basis; this is the change in energy demand in raw numbers. 

Virginia is the darkest blue, followed closely by Texas. Then South Carolina.

Then it's a toss-up but it looks like #4 and #5 are North Dakota and Arizona. Then Oklahoma and Florida. 

But as noted, this is a really great chart. Look at the states with negative energy demand (yellow): New York, Pennsylvania, Illinois. Wow.

Then California. 

I was surprised Colorado, Tennessee, Missouri, New Jersey in various shades of yellow.

Back to blue: it's not just data centers, but it's also the oil industry -- Texas, Oklahoma, and North Dakota.

Spend some time on this chart; think about it. Look at some of the "less blue" states -- particularly interesting: Idaho and Nevada for the West Coast folks; and Mississippi and Georgia for the East Coast folks. I was surprised to see North Carolina so pale blue.

Related, link here:

Tag: nuclear.

Re-posting from yesterday:

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What If? 

It's very possible -- even likely -- that this will all end badly, but let's just suppose, let's just suppose that "everyone" is missing the biggest tech story in the last twenty years --  

IYKYK.

This is not FOMO. This is not YOLO. This is IYKYK. 

The list is quite finite. 

I watch two hours of the best CNBC has to offer each day, and the prospects are "scary." In a good way.

  • 0800 - 0900 hours CDT
  • 1200 - 1300 hours CDT

The big "piece" I can't reconcile / conciliate: the energy requirements.

This is what I mean.

Above: six tickers.

What are/will be the six "energy" tickers that will "keep up" with the six tech tickers above.

 **************************
Largest Utilities In Texas

Link here.

Four largest utilities in Texas:

  • Oncor:
    • the largest in Texas
    • serves more than 10 million people in Texas
    • $19 billion in assets
    • subsidiary of Sempra Energy
    • HQ: Dallas, TX
    • a subsidiary of Berkshire Hathaway Energy
  • CenterPoint:
    • Houston, TX
    • second largest utility in Texas
    • over 4 million customers
    • is the only electricity provider in many parts of Texas
  • AEP Texas:
    • pales in comparison to #1 and #2
    • more than 500,000 customers in a 100-county service area
    • a subsidiary of American Electric Power (AEP)
    • parts of Austin, Corpus Christi, Houston, San Antonio, TYLER
  • Texas-New Mexico Power (TNMP):
    • 250,000 homes and business customers
    • HQ: near Lewisville, TX
    • a subsidiary of PNM Resources

For comparison:

  • Virginia, the dominion: Dominion Energy serves 4.5 million customers; less than half what SRE/Oncor provides in Texas.
  • Dominion says electricity demand will increase by 5.5% every year for as far out as one can see; this means electricity demand in Virginia will double over 13 years
  • thirteen years seems like a long time, but to data, it took a hundred years to get to present demand.

Duke:

  • 2024: 141st largest economy in the US -- highest-ever placement in the Fortune 500 list;
  • 7.2 million customers, again, less than Sempra/Oncor in Texas and a bit larger than CenterPoint, also in Texas

SRE is one of my largest holdings. I lucked into it decades ago. Never sold. Long story. I assume my cost basis is $0. I first invested in SRE (known as San Diego Gas and Electric at the time) back in 1984, or thereabouts. Long story. 

In the chart below, SRE shares were trading for $4.56.

Today, it pays $2.48 / share per year. For decades the dividends were automatically re-invested. 

Past year, one-year return; share price; p/e; dividend:

  • SRE: 4%; $77; p/e 17; pays 3.22%;
  • CNP: 0.6%; $30; p/e/ 21; pays 2.64%;
  • Duke: 16%; $96; p/e --; pays --
  • Dominion: -1.3%; $52; p/e 27; pays 5.1%; 

With a P/E of 17 and a dividend of 3.22%, and largest utility in two largest US markets (CA and TX), it seems SRE is the best of the lot.

iPhone 16 Camera -- Anticipation Grows -- July 9, 2024

Locator: 48091APPLE.

Also, see this post.

iPhone 16.

Camera.

Link here

Taiwanese lens manufacturers Largan Precision and Genius Electronic Optical (GSEO) are said to be the primary suppliers for the ‌iPhone 16 Pro‌'s tetraprism camera components. Sources close to the supply chain have indicated that both Largan and GSEO are now ramping up production in preparation for the release of the iPhone 16 lineup.

Largan, which supplied the periscope lenses for the ‌iPhone 15 Pro‌ Max, is expected to secure a substantial portion of the orders once again. Largan's chairman, Adam Lin, recently indicated that the optical components sector is expected to see peak sales from September to November, aligning with the anticipated release period for the ‌iPhone 16 Pro‌ models.

GSEO, a new entrant in the supply chain for this component, is reportedly undergoing quality testing with promising results. According to DigiTimes, GSEO's periscope lenses are currently undergoing validation, with production expected to begin in mid-July if they pass the necessary tests.

Link to The India Times

Apple iPhone 16 series launch is only a few months away now. This year too, the company is expected to four smartphones like the previous years.
Rumour mill has been churning out leaks and rumours of the expected smartphones.
Adding to the list is a report by reliable analyst Ming-Chi Kuo who claims that the upcoming iPhone 16 Pro may get significant design and camera upgrades that were previously exclusive to the iPhone 15 Pro Max.
He says that the tetraprism lens, previously exclusive to the iPhone 15 Pro Max will be available on both iPhone 16 Pro models.
He further states that the lens will see a zoom upgrade from the existing 3x zoom to 5x zoom capability. 

Much more at the link.

The camera lenses are supplied by Largan Precision. See wiki:

Largan Precision is the world's biggest supplier of smartphone camera lenses and accounts for 30 percent of the global market share.
It is one of the "nation's biggest supplier" for iPhone camera lenses along with Foxconn Interconnect Technology and Guangyao Technology.
The company was founded in 1987 by Tony Chen and Scott Lin and went public on the Taiwan Stock Exchange on 11 March 2002.
Scott Lin, one of the co-founders, took the suggestion of his friend Jong Huang, Chairman of Premier Technology, to try to shift the production focus to lighter and thinner lenses instead of glass lenses, which are comparatively heavier and thicker, becoming a significant Apple Inc. components supplier.

Again, much more at the link.

Rockport Energy Solutions

Locator: 48090ROCKPORT.

Rockport Energy Solutions LLC

BR With Two New Permits -- July 9, 2024

Locator: 48089B.

Streaming: YouTube.com (not YouTube+) is quickly becoming my "go-to" network for news. For example right now, of one so chooses (I don't), one can watch live the daily White House press briefing on YouTube.com.

Me? I'll be watching a movie or listening to music once CNBC's "Half-Time Report" ends.

Market: looks like the market liked JPow's testimony before the US Senate today. Later: that didn't last long: Dow goes red in the afternoon. Looks like both Nasdaq and S&P 500 will close at new highs. 

Apple iPhone: remember -- for those watching the new iPhone launch -- these are the major suppliers for the iPhone -- at this post.

**********************************
Back to the Bakken

WTI:

Active rigs: 37.

Three new permits, #40909 - #40911:

  • Operators: BR (2); Rockport Energy Solutions
  • Fields: Westberg (McKenzie); Ranch Creek (McKenzie)
  • Comments:
    • BR has permits for two wells, a Devils Backbone well and a Watchman Peak well, NWNE 14-152-97; 
      • to be sited 661 FNL and 1750 FEL; and, 651 FNL and 1719 FEL; 
      • spacing unit sections 2 / 11 / 14 / 23-152-97; and sections 2 / 11 / 14 / 23-152-97;
    • Rockport Energy has a permit for a Merritt well, NENE 18-146-98,
      • to be sited 365 FNL and 1229 FEL; 
        • spacing unit, section 18 / 19 /. 30-146-98;

Based on name changes, it appears Hess has canceled two BW-Wilson permits, #30015 and #30016.

Four permits canceled:

  • Grayson Mill: two Martin permits, Williams County; and, two Alfred North permits, McKenzie County;

Four permits renewed:

  • Enerplus: four Olson permits, Little Knife, Dunn County;

BR Carlsbad Wells In Twin Valley

Locator: 48088CARLSBAD.

The maps:


The wells:

20048, 1,284, BR, Carlsbad 21-17H, Twin Valley, t8/12; cum 457K 3/24; off line;

40277, conf/drl, BR, Carlsbad 1B UTFH, Twin Valley
37106, loc/drl, BR, Carlsbad 3A UTFH, Twin Valley
37107, loc/drl, BR, Carlsbad 3B MBH, Twin Valley

37108, loc/A, BR, Carlsbad 3C UTFH, Twin Valley
37109, loc/A, BR, Carlsbad 3D MBH, Twin Valley
37110, loc/A, BR, Carlsbad 4A UTFH, Twin Valley

39802, conf, BR, Carlsbad 4B, Twin Valley
39803, conf, BR, Carlsbad 4C, Twin Valley
39804, conf, BR, Carlzama 4D-ULW, Elidah,
39805, conf, BR, Mazama 1A, Elidah,
39806, conf, BR, Mazama 1B, Elidah,
39807, conf, BR, Mazama 1C, Elidah,

Apple -- Brad Pitt -- F1-- Blockbuster -- July 9, 2024

Locator: 48087APPLE.

Market open. NASDAQ and S&P at record highs.

Helen of Troy, CNBC analyst says the company needs to be monitored as a "going concern" as debt continues to increase and everything else continues to deteriorate:


Cramer: folks missed this one, also. 

NVDA: flashback -- you do the math -- March 19, 2024. Link here.

Around The Net -- July 9, 2024

Locator: 48086B.

Leonard Peltier: denied parole. Again. Link here.

US air travel. Wow. Link here.

Vanishing islands not vanishing. Old, old story, but NYT finally getting around to reporting it. Geico Rock Award nominations for this story: NYT, Raymond Zhong.  The Maldives, the poster child for global warming and rising seas:

And indeed, when the world began paying attention to global warming decades ago, these islands, which form atop coral reefs in clusters called atolls, were quickly identified as some of the first places climate change might ravage in their entirety. As the ice caps melted and the seas crept higher, these accidents of geologic history were bound to be corrected and the tiny islands returned to watery oblivion, probably in this century.

Then, not very long ago, researchers began sifting through aerial images and found something startling. They looked at a couple dozen islands first, then several hundred, and by now close to 1,000. They found that over the past few decades, the islands’ edges had wobbled this way and that, eroding here, building there. By and large, though, their area hadn’t shrunk. In some cases, it was the opposite: They grew. The seas rose, and the islands expanded with them.

Great Barrier Reef: never better! Link here.

Rock and Brews: front men, KISS -- opens huge new establishment in Grapevine -- appears to be opening in destination locations ... 

Carry that weight: even The Verge commented on this. EVs can't corner. They weigh too much. Link here. They might do well competing in "Funny Car" races.

My wife laughed. She doesn't get it! Link here.

When NPUs Can Do This, Then We Have "Real" AI -- July 9, 2024

Locator: 48085B.

Link here

Two neurons communicating with each other.

WTI Continues To Drop As Hurricane Recedes -- Four Wells Coming Off Confidential List Today -- July 9, 2024

Locator: 48084INV.

WTI: $81.78.

Wednesday, July 10, 2024: 26 for the month; 26 for the quarter, 352 for the year
40299, conf, Whiting, Sanish Bay E Federal 5292 31-6 3B
40253, conf, CLR, Benner 5-7H,
39894, conf, Hess, EN-Madisyn-LE-154-94-0705H-10,

Tuesday, July 9, 2024: 23 for the month; 23 for the quarter, 349 for the year
40252, conf, CLR, Benner 4-7H,
39964, conf, Petroshale, Primus 1TFH,
39527, conf, Petro-Hunt, Burian 144-98-15B-22-2H,
39427, conf, Hunt, Blue Ridge 159-100-5-8H 3, 

RBN Energy: EOG's focus on organic growth stands out amid E&P consolidation wave. Archived.

While many larger E&Ps have been growing bigger through massive, headline-grabbing acquisitions, EOG Resources — by market cap, the second-largest non-integrated U.S. producer — has been expanding for a quarter century now by focusing on the stealthy exploration and development of new resource plays. The results of EOG’s long-standing strategy have been impressive, and include finding and development (F&D) costs that are significantly lower than its Oil-Weighted peer group and a higher-than-average reserve replacement rate. In today’s RBN blog, we analyze the scope and impact of EOG’s singular focus on organic growth instead of M&A. 

 A few weeks ago we discussed ConocoPhillips’s planned $22.5 billion purchase of Marathon Oil and noted that the big-money deals closing this year may well set an all-time record — surpassing an extraordinary 2023. Already in 2024, ExxonMobil closed (in May) on its $60 billion purchase of Pioneer Natural Resources, and a long list of other deals — Chevron’s planned $53.5 billion acquisition of Hess Corp., Occidental Petroleum’s $12 billion buyout of privately held CrownRock, Chesapeake Energy’s $11.5 billion purchase of fellow gas producer Southwestern Energy and Diamondback Energy’s planned $26 billion acquisition of Endeavor Energy Resources — are expected to close over the next few months.

Another Wild Ride Tomorrow? Good Luck To All -- July 9, 2024

Locator: 48084INV.

******************
What If? 

It's very possible -- even likely -- that this will all end badly, but let's just suppose, let's just suppose that "everyone" is missing the biggest tech story in the last twenty years --  

IYKYK.

This is not FOMO. This is not YOLO. This is IYKYK. 

The list is quite finite. 

I watch two hours of the best CNBC has to offer each day, and the prospects are "scary." In a good way.

  • 0800 - 0900 hours CDT
  • 1200 - 1300 hours CDT

The big "piece" I can't reconcile / conciliate: the energy requirements.

This is what I mean.

Above: five tickers.

What are/will be the five "energy" tickers that will "keep up" with the five tech tickers above.

TSM -- Barron's -- July 9, 2024

Locator: 48083TSM.

For investoing -- without question, the best thing I ever did was -- a subscription to Barron's.