Another Huge "Thank You" To Readers Providing Me Bakken Information That Is Important To Mineral Owners In The Bakken -- Monday, July 1, 2024

Locator: 48035B.

A big "THANK YOU."

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The Drinking Game

After picking up Sophia, I turned on "Fast Money" on CNBC, and within two minutes, one of the panelists when discussing Apple mentioned "hyperscalers and large language machines." 

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Back to the Bakken

WTI:

Active rigs: 39.

Eleven new permits, #40882 - 40892, inclusive (disclaimer: typographic and content errors may be present):

• Operators: Grayson Mill (3), Zavanna (2), Oasis (2), Hunt (2), CLR, Murex
• Fields: Haystack Butte (Dunn); Epping (Williams); Arnegard (McKenzie), Parshall (Mountrail), Alexander (McKenzie)
• Comments:
• CLR has a permit for a Berlain well, lot 1, section 30-151-100, 
• to be sited 335 FNL and 1123 FWL
• Murex has a permit for a LA-Jean Claudine well, NWNE 25-151-101, 
• to be sited 295 FNL and 2030 FEL; 
• Zavanna has a permit for a Midas well, SESE 36-155-99, 
• to be sited 410 FSL and 975 FEL; and, 
• Zavanna has a permit for an Olympia well, SESW 36-155-99, 
• to be sited 250 FSL and 1616 FEL;
• Grayson Mill has permits for three Bice wells, lot 4, section 18-148-97; 
• to be sited 873 FSL and 572 FWL; 843 FSL and 572 FWL; and, 813 FSL and 572 FWL;
• Oasis has permits for two Como wells, lot 2, section 30-150-100, 
• to be sited at 1941 FNL and 528 FWL; and at 1961 FNL and 555 FWL;
• Hunt has permits for two Oakland wells, NENW 20-154-89, 
• to be sited 460 FNL and at 1455 FWl and 1425 FWL.

One producing well (a DUC) reported as completed:

• 39417, 89, Sparrow Oil & Gas, West Dry Creek 1H, Renville County;

Change of operator: 

• approximately 250 wells transferred from Crescent Point Energy to Neptune Operating, a subsidiary of Kraken.
• see this post: https://themilliondollarway.blogspot.com/2024/02/daily-activity-report-not-posted-yet.html.  
• the Kraken - Crescent Point deal was mentioned among the 2023 Bakken deals; those deals were listed here;

Reminder:

• Chord was a merger of Oasis with Whiting;
• Chord is now buying Enerplus

MRO, COP, Top Bakken Producers -- East Daley -- From June 6, 2024 -- Posted July 1, 2024

Locator: 48034B.

Deals affecting the Bakken are posted at the sidebar at the right. 

This was posted some weeks ago.

This is fairly old news and I assume "everybody" that needs to know, knows, and it's only me who keeps forgetting.

But for the archives:

Some mineral owners in the Bakken may be receiving royalties from MRO.

MRO could remain a wholly-owned subsidiary of COP and and royalties still coming from MRO.

Or MRO could be absorbed by BR (a wholly-owned subsidiary of COP) or something entirely else.

We won't know for awhile. Or maybe someone one knows and I don't know.

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East Daley: MRO, COP, And The Bakken

The East Daley note referenced above was posted June 6, 2024, and is linked here.

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Producers

Rounding, it looks like, with regard to production:

• Chord + Enerplus will about equal CLR;
• COP + MRO will be about one-half that of CLR or Chord + Enerplus:
• HES will be a bit less than COP + MRO;
• XOM (XTO) could be about half of HES

So:

• the "big names"
  
• 1 unit: Chord + Enerplus    16/16
• 1 unit: CLR                        16/16
• 1/2 unit: COP + MRO        8/16
• 3/8 unit: HES                        6/16
• 3/16 unit: XOM                    3/16
• all of those "big names" totaled will equal about one-half of Bakken's total production; "others" would include:
• Kraken + Neptune
• Grayson Mill
• Zavanna
  
• EOG
  
• Petro-Shale
• Phoenix
  
• Hunt
• Slawson 
• Iron Oil Operating
• Empire North Dakota
• SOGC (Sinclair)
• KODA Resources
• Murex 
• True Oil
• Spotted Hawk, and,
• many others
  

Reminder:

• Chord was a merger of Oasis with Whiting;
• Chord is now buying Enerplus

WTI Trending Breaches $83 -- July 1, 2024

Locator: 48033EVS.

WTI: $83.44 at 1:21 p.m. CDT, Monday, July 1, 2024.

Interestingly, shares in oil companies are up a bit but not as much as one might expect. Once exception: CHRD, which pays over 5%:

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EV Mandates At Risk

The following story is incredibly important, writer is incredibly credible: Charles Kennedy  -- probably the best contributor to oilprice and tends to address only major stories.

EVs and mandates, link here.

AAPL, MSFT, And BRK-B -- First Day Of The New Quarter -- July 1, 2024

Locator: 48032MARKET.

At the close:

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Original Post

Berkshire Hathaway's equity portfolio: about 40% is made up of AAPL.

Today, AAPL: up a whopping $4.41; up 2.11%; trading at $215.13 trending toward its 52-week high.

Meanwhile, BRK: down 0.54%; down $2.18.

When 40% of your stock portfolio is "surging" and the value of your overall portfolio is decreasing, it suggests how huge the drag is caused by the other holdings, most of which are "legacy" or long-term holdings. 

In BRK's case, a huge portion of the equity portfolio is held in cash because of regulatory requirements (insurance and banking requirements).

This drop in the BRK-B ticker comes a couple of days after the headline story that BRK-B made a "gazillion" dollars on the sale of BYD. 

All (much?) of tech is up today -- biggest reason -- start of a new quarter? And, also:

• SCOTUS ruling today favors Trump; increases Trump's return to the White House which tech generally supports -- at least according to many pundits. I have no idea.

In addition to AAPL, MSFT is also up very nicely today.

Morgan Stanley "ups" its Nvidia target:

• raises target from $116 to $144
• $123 - $144: a 17% move from here.
• $116 - $144: a 24% move from previous target.

Nvidia: response to Chinese ban -- link here -- has already responded and it sounds like "China" is happy with the solution -- 

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Later, AAPL

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Half-Time Report

Stephen Weiss trims NVDA -- second time in as many days or at least two trims in past week. Defends his position. Again, calls "chips" commodities. Noted on CNBC "Half-Time Report" at ~ 11:20 a.m. CDT.

If "chips" are commodities, then "everything" is / are commodities. Weiss' argument: "everybody" will jump into manufacturing chips.

If "chips" are commodities, why are automobiles not commodities? Why are fast-food restaurants not commodities. "Everybody" can make automobiles. Everybody can open fast-food restaurants.

In fact,

• Nvidia makes GPUs, one kind of "chip";
• AMD makes CPUs another kind of "chip";
• Micron isn't even known for making processing units; it makes "memory" chips
• only one "chip-maker" is designing and already delivering hardware units with 3-nm chips
• Intel couldn't do it -- couldn't get to 7-nm much less 3-nm and ended up outsourcing newer, smaller chips
• this all needs to be fact-checked; things change quickly in the industry -- "everything everywhere is happening all at once"

By the way, Stephen Weiss' last trade today: AMSL -- noted that TSM will use the EUV's the AMSL is manufacturing. One of many posts on the blog regarding AMSL: https://themilliondollarway.blogspot.com/2024/06/big-big-big-tech-story-today-asml-and_5.html. 

Headlines -- July 1, 2024

Locator: 48031TRUMP.

Decision on immunity: a win for Trump.

• 6 -3 decision
• pundits will get a lot of mileage out of that 6 -3 vote
• but, a lot of SCOTUS decisions are split decisions, and many of them are even "worse," coming in at 5-4
• will inflame a lot of passion: possibly a fund-raising bonanza for Trump
• "possibly for Biden"-- a fund-raising bonanza -- CNBC reporter on DC politics
  
• long decision -- 119 pages
• pages 16 - 32: narrative on "official" vs "unofficial"
• as CNBC  continues to read through the decision, Trump wins in a big way
  
• comes at a time when Biden is stumbling
• none of current "cases" will reach the courts before the election
• if Trump wins election, would choose AG who has authority to shut down federal cases against Trump
  
• most fun: interesting to listen how CNBC tries to spin this story 
• bottom line: 
• "headline" -- 30-second soundbite -- absolute immunity with regard to "official" acts
• how can anyone with any common sense disagree with this?
• did SCOTUS really change anything? Nope.
  

Can't live on EVs and renewable energy alone -- OPEC: link here.

Under Biden, link here.

a

Personal Mileage -- July 1, 2024

Locator: 48030HONDA.

Tag: mileage personal

 

WTI: $82 -- July 1, 2024

Locator: 48029B.

A reminder: Painted Woods Golf Course north of Bismarck, ND, now an 18-hole golf course.

Fastest growing state: North Dakota, again. Link here.

SCOTUS: rules for North Dakota business in Watford City, ND. Link here.

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $82.05.

Tuesday, July 2, 2024: 3 for the month; 3 for the quarter, 339 for the year
40264, conf, Stephens Williston, Cabot 15591-0112-4H, 

Monday, July 1, 2024: 2 for the month; 2 for the quarter, 338 for the year
39895, conf, Hess, EN-Madisyn-LE-154-94-0705H-11,
39224, conf, Hess, BL-Herfindahl-156-95-3031H-3,

RBN Energy: the strange relationship between Mont Belvieu and Conway NGLS. Archived.

Mont Belvieu, TX and Conway, KS, are the two most significant U.S. hubs for NGL trading, storage and fractionation, with the much bigger Mont Belvieu hub primarily serving Gulf Coast and export demand, while the smaller Conway hub is focused on Midwest/Great Plains demand, especially for propane. The pricing dynamics between the two hubs are a key indicator of the supply/demand balance between the regions, but they don’t have the same kind of influence over the direction or magnitude of flows as price differential dynamics often do for other energy commodities. In today’s RBN blog, we will examine the gap between the price of the NGL “basket” in Mont Belvieu versus Conway and what that price spread tells us. 

We should begin with a brief reminder for readers who don’t live and breathe NGLs. The NGL market is in some ways a world of its own, with more quirks and idiosyncrasies than the crude oil and natural gas markets combined. NGLs are, of course, produced in significant volumes in most Lower 48 production areas, with notable exceptions such as the Haynesville and parts of the Marcellus where hydrocarbon output is largely limited to dry gas with little or no liquids. The associated gas emerging from wells with crude oil includes a combination of natural gas, mixed NGLs and impurities that are separated at gas processing plants into natural gas and mixed NGLs (aka Y-grade), each of which is then moved to downstream customers. Depending on the region and pricing relationships, some of the ethane within the associated gas is “rejected” into natural gas at the processing plant.